2019 ENSO

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

On topic please. 

All the models have +neutral or El Nino. I think we are in kind of a phase since-2013 where warm is the norm. SOI and NOI are plunging right now. Usually in a developing La Nina you would see some well defined SSTs in the northern latitudes right now, (not what's happening). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Mixed results in this area on second year el ninos...87-88 was meh, but 77-78 was great.

[raindancewx]

For future reference, I will never go after anyone unless I'm directly provoked. Call it the Bugs Bunny rule.

Anyway, weeklies.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 05DEC2018     23.1 0.8     26.2 1.1     27.6 1.0     29.7 1.2
 12DEC2018     23.4 0.8     26.1 1.0     27.7 1.1     29.7 1.2
 19DEC2018     23.7 0.7     26.2 1.0     27.6 1.0     29.5 1.0
 26DEC2018     24.1 0.8     26.0 0.7     27.3 0.7     29.2 0.8
 02JAN2019     23.9 0.2     26.1 0.6     27.3 0.7     29.1 0.8

People seem to dislike it, but with the MJO behaving similarly to 1997 since December, there are at least some similarities for the first 40% of the winter. 1991-92 has been close too. Cold Maine, warm East. Hot Plains. Main problem with 1997 to date has been the SE. I put the others here - https://imgur.com/a/uhOjwhZ

 

[raindancewx]

Gradual thinning of the warmth at depth overall since October? The SOI has a shot at a huge month over month drop from December, which does, sometimes, tie into big -NAO periods in the US. Last one being March 2018 when the SOI dropped by close to 20 points from Feb to Mar. Years with 20 point drops in winter include favorites like 1976. The SOI is current below -10 in January but that's already up a lot from earlier in the month. December was over +9.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It looks like it's redeveloping back west. Usually you would see cold pool there right now, even in transition back to Neutral. 

[buckeye]

16 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Gradual thinning of the warmth at depth overall since October? The SOI has a shot at a huge month over month drop from December, which does, sometimes, tie into big -NAO periods in the US. Last one being March 2018 when the SOI dropped by close to 20 points from Feb to Mar. Years with 20 point drops in winter include favorites like 1976. The SOI is current below -10 in January but that's already up a lot from earlier in the month. December was over +9.

So you taking 97-98 off the plate?

[raindancewx]

Given the subsurface similarities to Dec 1997 (+1.1 is actually warmer for this year than 1997 for 100-180W) I don't think its too surprising we have somewhat similar weather so far. At a seasonal level the long-term phases of the oscillations matter, but at the sub-seasonal stuff, the MJO beats everything, so 1997-98 with similar MJO progression hasn't been bad as an analog since November. Jan 1998 is almost the same magnitude MJO in phase 8 on 1/8 as today is according to the BOM site MJO archives. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

I'm looking very hard at the El Nino years following a major hit on the Gulf Coast for March. For whatever reason you tend to get extreme Marches after that happens. You can see it last year after Harvey as an example. The five El Nino Springs after a Gulf Coast hurricane hit include 1941-42, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1969-70, 2004-05. A lot of crazy cold in unusual patterns in those years. Look at March 1958 as an example, which hasn't been super dissimilar to weather lately. I sincerely doubt the Plains will have more than 2-3 months of extreme warmth in a row like they seem to be. Some kind of correction will come. I'd go less extreme than this, but these type of years seem clustered after the major hurricanes hit the Gulf of Mexico, especially in an El Nino. 1966, after Betsy is kind of the warm March counter example because severe cold came earlier than in the other years. I don't have a Spring Outlook yet, but I do think the Plains are going to pay for their warmth, that seems almost inevitable, it's just where it spreads.

 

[raindancewx]

Here is a subsurface comparison to 2006-07, 2014-15 and 2015-16 at this time. The rapid collapse in 2007 and 2016 was fairly evident by now. Lots more red...but also blue. Can't get a good animation for 2009-10 for the same time period, but the collapse began in March 2010 that year.

 

[raindancewx]

The CPC ONI stuff is up, but hasn't been updated for December yet. Our friends at BOM, against 1961-1990, had Nino 3.4 at +0.8C, which is about 27.2C as there are a lot of potent La Ninas in that period (1988, etc). They probably are using a different data set than NOAA/CPC anyway. The December look is fairly east-based on their map.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Sea-surface

[raindancewx]

New Euro run for Nino 3.4 has El Nino most likely to continue through May. Weak conditions are possible as late as June or July though if this run is right. Anything resembling the current run would make the strong El Ninos analogs for Spring, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2015 were all dead by May. 1982, 1986, 1997, 2014, the strongest and two-year events, not so much.

[raindancewx]

These are the top SOI matches for July 2018 to January 2019, assuming January finishes around -8, like it is for 1/1-1/13. 1932, 1957, 1969 all had major hurricanes hit the Gulf of Mexico. Good to see things from those years showing up given what I think March may do.

SOI Monthly	July	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Match
2018	1.8	-6.7	-8.5	2.6	0.6	9.2	-8.0	0.00
2003	3.2	-1.2	-1.6	-2.9	-2.4	9.0	-12.8	27.30
1948	0.8	-4.0	-7.1	6.6	4.2	-6.8	-7.9	28.80
1954	3.3	9.4	2.3	2.2	2.3	11.5	-5.5	35.30
1932	1.1	4.9	-8.3	-4.1	-4.6	1.8	-11.8	35.60
1969	-6.4	-4.0	-10.0	-11.6	-0.2	2.3	-10.8	37.10
1957	1.4	-8.2	-9.4	-0.3	-11.0	-4.3	-17.5	40.30

[raindancewx]

Roughly half way through Dec-Feb, the weeklies have Nino 3.4 at an average of 27.4C.
Against 1951-2010, this is +0.9C or so for that period. 

The zones West of Nino 1.2 have cooled relatively fast to Nino 3.4 over the past six weeks, with Nino 4 in
particular cooling from near record levels. 
You can see relative to 2014-15 in Dec-Jan, the event is much more of a basin-wide event than 2014-15 was.
2002-03 and 2009-2010 were stronger and far more centered to the West by this time.
2006-07 was stronger at this week, but collapsed very quickly after, which doesn't seem likely.

Anyway, new Jamstec should be out soon, and eventually NOAA/CPC will update the monthly Nino 3.4 data.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 05DEC2018     23.1 0.8     26.2 1.1     27.6 1.0     29.7 1.2
 12DEC2018     23.4 0.8     26.1 1.0     27.7 1.1     29.7 1.2
 19DEC2018     23.7 0.7     26.2 1.0     27.6 1.0     29.5 1.0
 26DEC2018     24.1 0.8     26.0 0.7     27.3 0.7     29.2 0.8
 02JAN2019     23.9 0.2     26.1 0.6     27.3 0.7     29.1 0.8
 09JAN2019     24.6 0.5     26.1 0.6     27.0 0.4     28.9 0.6

 03DEC2014     22.3 0.0     25.8 0.7     27.4 0.8     29.4 0.9
 10DEC2014     22.8 0.2     26.0 0.9     27.5 0.9     29.4 0.9
 17DEC2014     22.9 0.1     26.0 0.8     27.4 0.8     29.4 1.0
 24DEC2014     23.1-0.2     26.0 0.7     27.3 0.7     29.3 0.9
 31DEC2014     23.6 0.0     25.9 0.6     27.1 0.5     29.2 0.8
 07JAN2015     23.7-0.2     25.9 0.4     27.0 0.4     29.1 0.7
 14JAN2015     24.0-0.4     25.9 0.3     27.1 0.5     29.1 0.9

 09DEC2009     22.7 0.2     26.6 1.5     28.2 1.7     29.6 1.1
 16DEC2009     22.6-0.2     26.7 1.5     28.3 1.8     29.7 1.2
 23DEC2009     23.7 0.5     26.8 1.5     28.4 1.9     29.7 1.3
 30DEC2009     24.3 0.7     26.7 1.4     28.3 1.7     29.6 1.2
 06JAN2010     24.3 0.4     26.7 1.2     28.3 1.7     29.7 1.3

 06DEC2006     22.9 0.5     26.1 1.1     27.9 1.3     29.6 1.1
 13DEC2006     22.9 0.2     26.3 1.2     27.8 1.2     29.5 1.0
 20DEC2006     23.7 0.6     26.5 1.3     27.7 1.2     29.4 1.0
 27DEC2006     24.0 0.6     26.6 1.3     27.7 1.1     29.4 1.0
 03JAN2007     24.3 0.5     26.4 0.9     27.5 0.9     29.2 0.8
 10JAN2007     24.9 0.7     26.7 1.1     27.5 0.9     29.1 0.8

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The only way this can really develop in El Nino (north pacific ridge) is with a cooling trend in the subsurface.. increases chances of transition to Neutral/La Nina

[raindancewx]

The subsurface numbers for January (300m down, 100W-180W) look like they'll come in around +0.7. A similar transition for Nov-Dec-Jan would be these years blended as a guideline for February.

100-180W	Nov	Dec	Jan
1979	1.06	0.92	0.83
1979	1.06	0.92	0.83
1982	1.92	1.45	0.05
1991	1.22	1.71	1.57
1994	1.16	0.80	0.51
2002	1.58	0.74	0.27
2009	1.75	1.36	1.14
2014	0.90	0.54	0.15
Mean	1.33	1.06	0.67
2018	1.35	1.06	0.70

Here is a look at what those years looked like in February nationally.

A lot of the the years with very cold February temps in the US are El Nino with a big collapse in the January subsurface to below El Nino thresholds (+0.5) (2002-03, 2006-07 in the Midwest, 2014-15). Slower fall offs, like this year tend to be less extreme for cold and heat.

Big positive SOI Decembers (like the +9.1 in Dec 2018) tend to precede a warm February in the South, and hold down temps on the West Coast, so with the SOI blended in, I think the core of the cold in February is likely over Missouri, rather than say Ohio or New York. With the analog site down, I'm just guessing what the blend looks like, but it seems like a near normal WA/OR/SE US, cold centered in Missouri is what I like for February. Warmth is in the interior NW. It's kind of a warm West / cold East pattern turned 45 degrees to the right from the SOI if that makes any sense since the +SOI December should not impact the SW too much, but will warm up the SE and cool off the NW.

Given how the years looked, and the SOI in December, Feb 1983, 1992, 2015 as a simpler blend is probably approximately right. Again, ESRL is down, can't graph these, so I am guessing on the exact look of the blends.

[LibertyBell]

On 1/10/2019 at 7:49 PM, raindancewx said:

New Euro run for Nino 3.4 has El Nino most likely to continue through May. Weak conditions are possible as late as June or July though if this run is right. Anything resembling the current run would make the strong El Ninos analogs for Spring, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2015 were all dead by May. 1982, 1986, 1997, 2014, the strongest and two-year events, not so much.

I think you mean 2015 (going into 2014) which was a developing super, do you think next winter we'll have something like that?

Regardless, February 83, February 2015, were both big snowfall months in the NE.  And just like 82-83, the super el nino of 2015-16 had a historic event, but it was in late January not February.  I got a 31 inch snowstorm that month.

 

[raindancewx]

My hunch is this event just weakens slowly for having a relatively low peak, but we don't have another El Nino next year. My point above is that the years like 2003, 2007, 2010, 2015 (before it redeveloped later in March) all weakened very rapidly in January or February at the subsurface and then the pattern went nuts for the NE. January doesn't seem to be showing rapid weakening. February might, but Tropical Tidbits has been showing a recovery in most zones lately, after the extended -SOI burst earlier in the month (and more -SOI days look likely by 1/31 too). The event still kind of looks like an East-Central / Basin Wide hybrid, with the core of the heat near 120W, oscillating east/west of that area at times but never too far.

The subsurface is still weakening I think, but its not dead yet like 2006-07 or 2002-03, or clearly moving that way like 2015-16. 

To me, this pattern has been driven as much by the transition from the La Nina last year as the El Nino this year. The El Ninos after La Ninas tend to be colder in the West, and that has shown up this year.

The absence of a canonical positive PDO (waters by Japan still look like a -PDO, and the blob by Alaska is cooling, not warming since Fall), and the +SOI in December are all examples of things that wouldn't have been there if we had transitioned from a Neutral or Modoki La Nina into this El Nino instead of from an East-based La Nina that at times (Jan 2018) had the coldest waters by Peru in decades.

[LibertyBell]

You're right the transition has actually been the major indicator of sensible weather rather than the state of ENSO itself, December was actually a very La Nina-ish kind of month.  In addition to that the MJO has created a very 80s type of look, with storms taking one of two predominant paths- either suppressed and hitting the lower mid atlantic or coastal hugging and bringing snow to elevated and far inland regions. Lots of cold air around but storms taking bad pathways for snow.

The one snowstorm we got, in November, was also a coastal hugger with a big front end dump.

I find that the east's best winters actually tend to be la ninas that come after el ninos (1995-96, 2010-11)- so the reverse of what this winter has been.  I know 2012-13 wasn't an el nino but it was headed that way and has had some weather similarities- how do you compare that to this year?

 

[raindancewx]

It looks like the Jamstec Model updated. It may be using ESRL data, since it doesn't include an initialized value for December like it normally would for its Jan 1 update.

The update has El Nino conditions lasting until June, but that is an earlier end than before, when they lasted until Fall.

The East is shown colder than the last run, with the Northern Plains & WA state warm both times, and NM/CO cold on both runs.

The Western US and SE are shown wet, with areas of the Plains wet too. East trended drier.

Here is a look at how well the Jan 2018 Jamstec run did for Spring 2018. It did quite well actually -

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

You're right the transition has actually been the major indicator of sensible weather rather than the state of ENSO itself, December was actually a very La Nina-ish kind of month.  In addition to that the MJO has created a very 80s type of look, with storms taking one of two predominant paths- either suppressed and hitting the lower mid atlantic or coastal hugging and bringing snow to elevated and far inland regions. Lots of cold air around but storms taking bad pathways for snow.

The one snowstorm we got, in November, was also a coastal hugger with a big front end dump.

I find that the east's best winters actually tend to be la ninas that come after el ninos (1995-96, 2010-11)- so the reverse of what this winter has been.  I know 2012-13 wasn't an el nino but it was headed that way and has had some weather similarities- how do you compare that to this year?

 

If you look at subsurface data, one could argue 95-96 was Neutral. 

[raindancewx]

I found a free site that stored SST, Snow, Precip and Temperature data from ESRL before the shutdown, through 11/30/2018 if anyone wants to use it -

https://www.frontierweather.com/monthlyclimatemaps.html

Main limitation is it only goes back to 1950 and you can't combine years into composites. 

The Jamstec forecast for Spring has essentially gone from a Spring 1977 look to a Spring 2005 look. I kind of like the look of Spring 1970 actually. 2005 sort of briefly died as a La Nina in March before warming again briefly, whereas 1977 was more steady in Spring, I don't know if that is what the Jamstec is seeing. I don't think we'll go to another El Nino (I'd love to be wrong) - like 1977 after 1976  but I don't think a La Nina is imminent either.

I'm still debating on weighting and inclusion but I'll probably end up blending 5-8 of these years for my Spring forecast - 1941-42, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1969-70, 1976-77, 1986-87, 1994-95, 2004-05, 2006-07, 2014-15, and then I'll throw in some combination of 1974-75, 1998-99, or 2008-09 to account for the positive SOI in December and the slow weakening of the El Nino. I actually consider 1974-75 to be a better analog than most of the El Ninos, because it was a +1.3C warm up in Nino 3.4 year/year, had low solar, and a major hurricane hit the Gulf of Mexico. You don't have many warm ups y/y of that magnitude in Nino 3.4 in the last 100 years, regardless of the ENSO state.

[raindancewx]

CPC has the Eastern Nino zones warmer than the Western zones this week like Tropical Tidbits. This is winter so far.
                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 05DEC2018     23.1 0.8     26.2 1.1     27.6 1.0     29.7 1.2
 12DEC2018     23.4 0.8     26.1 1.0     27.7 1.1     29.7 1.2
 19DEC2018     23.7 0.7     26.2 1.0     27.6 1.0     29.5 1.0
 26DEC2018     24.1 0.8     26.0 0.7     27.3 0.7     29.2 0.8
 02JAN2019     23.9 0.2     26.1 0.6     27.3 0.7     29.1 0.8
 09JAN2019     24.6 0.5     26.1 0.6     27.0 0.4     28.9 0.6
 16JAN2019     25.4 0.9     26.3 0.6     27.1 0.5     29.0 0.7

Nino 1.2 is pretty warm so far in January. Here is a look at Nino 1.2 - Nino 3.4 for week three in January for each El Nino to get an idea on El Nino structures at this time:

1991-92: -1.7C, 1994-95: -0.2C, 1997-98: +1.3C, 2002-03: -1.5C, 2004-05: -0.2C, 2006-07: -0.2C, 2009-10: -1.3C, 2014-15: -1.0C, 2015-16: -1.1C, 2018-19: +0.4C

 01JAN1992     24.0 0.3     26.7 1.3     28.5 1.9     29.3 1.0
 08JAN1992     24.2 0.2     26.8 1.3     28.5 1.9     29.2 0.9
 15JAN1992     24.6 0.2     26.9 1.3     28.4 1.9     29.1 0.8

 04JAN1995     24.7 0.8     26.1 0.7     27.6 1.1     29.3 0.9
 11JAN1995     25.1 0.9     26.2 0.7     27.6 1.0     29.2 0.9
 18JAN1995     25.3 0.8     26.4 0.7     27.6 1.0     29.3 1.0

 07JAN1998     28.0 4.0     28.9 3.4     29.2 2.6     29.1 0.8
 14JAN1998     28.4 4.0     28.9 3.3     29.1 2.5     29.0 0.7
 21JAN1998     28.4 3.7     28.9 3.2     29.0 2.4     28.9 0.7

 01JAN2003     24.2 0.6     26.6 1.2     28.1 1.5     29.4 1.1
 08JAN2003     23.9-0.1     26.3 0.8     27.9 1.3     29.2 0.9
 15JAN2003     24.1-0.3     26.3 0.7     27.7 1.2     29.3 1.0

 05JAN2005     23.7-0.2     25.7 0.3     27.1 0.5     29.3 0.9
 12JAN2005     24.2 0.0     25.9 0.3     27.1 0.5     29.2 0.9
 19JAN2005     25.0 0.3     26.0 0.3     27.1 0.5     29.2 0.9

 03JAN2007     24.3 0.5     26.4 0.9     27.5 0.9     29.2 0.8
 10JAN2007     24.9 0.7     26.7 1.1     27.5 0.9     29.1 0.8
 17JAN2007     25.0 0.4     26.4 0.7     27.2 0.6     28.8 0.6

 06JAN2010     24.3 0.4     26.7 1.2     28.3 1.7     29.7 1.3
 13JAN2010     24.6 0.3     26.7 1.1     28.2 1.6     29.6 1.3
 20JAN2010     24.7 0.1     26.5 0.8     28.0 1.4     29.5 1.2

 07JAN2015     23.7-0.2     25.9 0.4     27.0 0.4     29.1 0.7
 14JAN2015     24.0-0.4     25.9 0.3     27.1 0.5     29.1 0.9
 21JAN2015     24.3-0.4     26.1 0.3     27.2 0.6     29.2 1.0

 06JAN2016     25.7 1.8     28.1 2.7     29.1 2.6     29.7 1.4
 13JAN2016     25.7 1.4     28.3 2.8     29.2 2.6     29.6 1.3
 20JAN2016     26.0 1.4     28.2 2.5     29.1 2.5     29.6 1.4

[raindancewx]

Subsurface is hanging on. Finish around +0.7 for January would be interesting for February.

[raindancewx]

We should finally be getting an update on ONI for OND, and maybe a few other NOAA things with the shutdown temporarily resolved - I would think?

Also, the SOI had its first big daily crash (+4.4 to -6.4) since 12/18-12/19. Drops of 10 points within two days almost always lead to a storm in the SW US in about 10 days. A drop of 10+ in a single day is typically something that precedes a bigger storm or wave of storms. Last time the SOI dropped by 10+ in a day, we had around a month of precipitation on 12/26-12/28. The SOI for January will probably finish negative, but it is only at -2.9 through 1/26. These are the top SOI matches for February if the SOI remains at around -2.9 for January -

SOI Monthly	Nov	Dec	Jan	Closeness
2018	0.6	9.2	-2.9	0.0
1954	2.3	11.5	-5.5	6.6
1945	-3.4	5.4	-3.1	8.0
1996	-0.1	7.3	3.5	9.0
1993	0.4	0.7	-2.1	9.5
1960	6.8	5.9	-3.1	9.7
1956	2.3	8.5	4.5	9.8

The subsurface still looks like it is only slowly weakening. Not seeing evidence of a coming rapid collapse like in early 2007 or 2016 or 1998. Some of the pool by 180W looks like it will eventually work up and East into Nino 3.4

 

[raindancewx]

The Jamstec updated the weekly Modoki values on their site through mid-January. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.weekly.txt

The values are consistent with the event hitting a near ideal Modoki-El Nino look in early Fall, peaking around Halloween, before gradually become more East-based. I am expecting a reversion to a Modoki El Nino look in Spring for what its worth, and the subsurface data for January (+0.7C 100-180W) implies some El Nino influence through Apr 1 at least.  

2018:10:3:0 0.654059
2018:10:10:0 0.74381
2018:10:17:0 0.720227
2018:10:24:0 0.766743
2018:10:31:0 1.07251
2018:11:7:0 0.57872
2018:11:14:0 0.51636
2018:11:21:0 0.571958
2018:11:28:0 0.745371
2018:12:5:0 0.552251
2018:12:12:0 0.579795
2018:12:19:0 0.559226
2018:12:26:0 0.314525
2019:1:2:0 0.575521
2019:1:9:0 0.307292
2019:1:16:0 0.231463

Here is a look at 2009 and 2002 for comparison. The calculation is Box A (165E-140W, 10S-10N) - Box B * 0.5 (110W-70W, 15S-5N) - Box C * 0.5 (125E-145E, 10S-20N)

2009:10:7:0 0.521472
2009:10:14:0 0.832267
2009:10:21:0 0.949581
2009:10:28:0 0.986342
2009:11:4:0 0.941528
2009:11:11:0 0.983712
2009:11:18:0 1.04028
2009:11:25:0 1.05629
2009:12:2:0 0.92937
2009:12:9:0 0.898777
2009:12:16:0 1.08688
2009:12:23:0 0.909425
2009:12:30:0 0.791051
2010:1:6:0 1.04744
2010:1:13:0 1.10023

2002:10:2:0 0.716192
2002:10:9:0 0.694229
2002:10:16:0 0.396019
2002:10:23:0 0.699218
2002:10:30:0 0.572236
2002:11:6:0 0.561524
2002:11:13:0 0.73446
2002:11:20:0 0.562245
2002:11:27:0 0.695123
2002:12:4:0 0.54672
2002:12:11:0 0.512048
2002:12:18:0 0.586731
2002:12:25:0 0.563768
2003:1:1:0 0.428649
2003:1:8:0 0.723686
2003:1:15:0 0.819688

The monthly data shows a spike in Box B, the Eastern Pacific, as the event became more basin wide for a while. That continued into Dec and Jan, and has driven down the Modoki values since Halloween.

[raindancewx]

NOAA / CPC stuff is largely back today. ONI was +0.9C for OND as expected (more like +0.85)

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Year	DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ	JJA	JAS	ASO	SON	OND	NDJ
2010	1.5	1.3	0.9	0.4	-0.1	-0.6	-1.0	-1.4	-1.6	-1.7	-1.7	-1.6
2011	-1.4	-1.1	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.5	-0.7	-0.9	-1.1	-1.1	-1.0
2012	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	-0.2
2013	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3	-0.4	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3
2014	-0.4	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.7
2015	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.8	1.0	1.2	1.5	1.8	2.1	2.4	2.5	2.6
2016	2.5	2.2	1.7	1.0	0.5	0.0	-0.3	-0.6	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	-0.6
2017	-0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.2	-0.1	-0.4	-0.7	-0.9	-1.0
2018	-0.9	-0.8	-0.6	-0.4	-0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.9

 

YR   MON  TOTAL ClimAdjust ANOM

2018  10   27.62   26.75    0.86
2018  11   27.61   26.75    0.86
2018  12   27.50   26.65    0.85

CPC uses 26.45C for Nino 3.4 "average" temps in January. Weeklies imply January is still in El Nino territory. Remember, these are centered, so it is through 1/26.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 02JAN2019     23.9 0.2     26.1 0.6     27.3 0.7     29.1 0.8
 09JAN2019     24.6 0.5     26.1 0.6     27.0 0.4     28.9 0.6
 16JAN2019     25.4 0.9     26.3 0.6     27.1 0.5     29.0 0.7
 23JAN2019     25.1 0.2     26.2 0.4     27.0 0.4     28.9 0.7

For 1/1-1/26 using the weeklies, I get 27.1C or so in Nino 3.4, which is still about +0.65C.

I do think going into Spring, before this event collapses, it will have more of a Modoki look than the east/basin wide look we've seen in Dec and early January.

[raindancewx]

Looks to me like the 100-180W subsurface, top 300m, at the Equator will be around +0.7C in February. Blending that with the +1.35 in Nov and +1.06 in Dec, it is almost impossible not to get a cold East look in some fashion, but there are several combinations, so the center of the cold and the severity of it is in question.

[raindancewx]

Objective, closest SOI matches for NDJ are an interesting bunch for February - 

SOI Monthly	Nov	Dec	Jan	Closeness
2018	0.6	9.2	-2.1	0.0
1954	2.3	11.5	-5.5	7.4
1996	-0.1	7.3	3.5	8.2
1993	0.4	0.7	-2.1	8.7
1945	-3.4	5.4	-3.1	8.8
1956	2.3	8.5	4.5	9.0
1960	6.8	5.9	-3.1	10.5

CFS may not be completely off its rocker -

Just about all the top SOI matches for the past three months have cold in the West or Plains in February, although it occasionally bleeds East in a weaker fashion in a small number of the top years, like Feb 1994.

[raindancewx]

PDO Index values for 2018 - in my email from Nate Mantua the other day

January    0.70

February  0.37

March      -0.05

April          0.11

May           0.11

June         -0.04

July           0.11

August       0.18

September  0.09

October       0.26

November  -0.05

December  0.52

[raindancewx]

The Canadian has flipped to a cold / wet West look, like the CFS and CPC outlooks. It had the East warm in Jan and the West cold - generally right on its 12/31 outlook.

[raindancewx]

ONI for January (27.25C) and Nov-Jan was +0.8C according to CPC.

Weeklies have Nino 1.2 warmer than Nino 3.4 again. Nino 4 is still warm too, and subsurface heat is increasing since early January in the 100-180W zone.  I'd expect some of the heat in Nino 4 and Nino 1.2 to fill into Nino 3.4 / Nino 3 again later in February or March.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 26DEC2018     24.1 0.8     26.0 0.7     27.3 0.7     29.2 0.8
 02JAN2019     23.9 0.2     26.1 0.6     27.3 0.7     29.1 0.8
 09JAN2019     24.6 0.5     26.1 0.6     27.0 0.4     28.9 0.6
 16JAN2019     25.4 0.9     26.3 0.6     27.1 0.5     29.0 0.7
 23JAN2019     25.1 0.2     26.2 0.4     27.0 0.4     28.9 0.7
 30JAN2019     26.3 1.0     26.3 0.3     27.0 0.3     29.0 0.8

Nino 1.2 was 23.95C for NDJ - pretty warm.