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January Banter 2019


George BM

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Agree. Now we can stop chasing epic pattern and just wait to see if we get a few threats through our last 5/6 weeks of winter. I very much doubt Friday is the end of winter.

Same page man. Upper air patterns have been hostile AF since mid Dec. I'm done chasing h5 utopia. One thing that is encouraging and unusual... we are scoring with the few chances we've had. Feb can be warm, then dump 2', and go back to warm. I don't think feb will be warm though. Just a continuation of hostile h5 patterns. Part of me still believes odds favor a -nao building. 

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Who knows what Feb and Smarch bring, but there’s definitely a chance that this winter is remembered as a ratter for most on the EC.  It’s also quite possible I’m over 18” by Friday with 5-6 weeks left of reasonable snow climo. Not going to be a ratter for me even if ends up being less than our November weenie dreams.

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Just now, Prestige Worldwide said:

I can’t tell if you’re trolling or genuinely excited about the long range gefs

Honestly, I'm a little excited. Far from hook line and sinker of course but the whole thing fits part of my synopsis I posted earlier. The NAO flipping can be sudden and unexpected. It's the most difficult teleconnection to forecast in advance by a big margin over things like the AO or PNA. I've noticed the ops building a ridge near the Davis Strait on the regular the last 3-4 days. That probably means something other than models suck. 

I won't get truly excited until everything shows a big block at d5 or less though. Need it to be happening almost in real time before feeling confident with the nao. That applies to any year and not just this one. If the pna or epo ridges aren't going to be in near perfect locations it becomes all or nothing with the nao. It's the difference between very good with good chances for snow storms or we're pretty much screwed. PSU made a long post about it. I agree with everything he said. 

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Who knows what Feb and Smarch bring, but there’s definitely a chance that this winter is remembered as a ratter for most on the EC.  It’s also quite possible I’m over 18” by Friday with 5-6 weeks left of reasonable snow climo. Not going to be a ratter for me even if ends up being less than our November weenie dreams.

Remember the percent of seasonal snowfall average map from the end of last season when the DC area was literally the biggest screw zone for the entire east coast? 

DCA is 5” ahead of season-to-date climo and has a shot to surpass its total seasonal snow average on Friday, the first day of February. We’re in the inverse of last season. 

 

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On 1/9/2019 at 8:31 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Was there a significant snowstorm in this region sometime in January 1988? (not 1987- I know about 1987) My mom came across some pictures of us and my father and it appears to be around that time. It's a lot of snow in the pictures, looks like around 6-8" at least. NCDC site is down because of the shutdown so I can't look it up.

Now that NCDC's page is back up, I found it- January 7-8, 1988. It was 8.4" at BWI. Snow-on-snow too, as 2.4" had fallen on January 3-4 and still on the ground. The first half of that month was an impressive cold and snowy period- two weeks of snowcover, six consecutive subfreezing highs, three consecutive single-digit lows, lots of double-digit departures, etc. Highs in the 20's both days while snowing and overnight low of 8- that's some cold powder.

Looks like this system was a big storm for the south too, found this:

https://www.nytimes.com/1988/01/08/us/storm-drops-a-foot-of-snow-on-much-of-the-south.html

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Just now, Stormpc said:

Haa... My wife and I were thinking Lake Anna for a while,  then suddenly we bought in the Northern Outer Banks. This is my last chance at a good winter. Leaving in May for good. I went further south than my anticipated destination. You are still chasing. I commend you.

We've been all over the map figuring this move out.. Northern neck, nc beaches or sounds, florida west coast, deep creek, etc... The only rule is a big view of mountains or waterfront and private lot.

We're both realizing we enjoy cooler weather too much to give it up and living in a snow free climate may not be the way to go. She likes snowmobiling a lot so the lakes in the NE offer year round recreation with all season options. The crappy season is spring up there. Drawn out in between seasons so I mentioned renting a beach condo in FL every year for a month solves the problem and light bulbs went off. Upstate NY and VT weenies are a lot happier than MA weenies too. Lol

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We've been all over the map figuring this move out.. Northern neck, nc beaches or sounds, florida west coast, deep creek, etc... The only rule is a big view of mountains or waterfront and private lot.

We're both realizing we enjoy cooler weather too much to give it up and living in a snow free climate may not be the way to go. She likes snowmobiling a lot so the lakes in the NE offer year round recreation with all season options. The crappy season is spring up there. Drawn out in between seasons so I mentioned renting a beach condo in FL every year for a month solves the problem and light bulbs went off. Upstate NY and VT weenies are a lot happier than MA weenies too. Lol

Ahhh...Maybe a home on Skaneateles Lake just west of Syracuse will quench your thirst. Not nearly as much snow as Oneida Lake to the Northeast, but more prime lakefront property and beautiful towns. Summers are cool but Warm. Springs are warmer than anywhere along the coast north of Delaware. You have access to mountains, lake effect snow, all out blizzards off Lake Ontario. You even get the Erie Snow's from the West southwesterly Winds.

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Which side?  Beautiful spot. My plans are either Colorado or New England someday  

Besides the Laurel Highlands in Somerset county, PA (Avg snowfall is 150+ inches, had around 300 inches a few years back) my wife and I are now also considering possibly inland Maine for retirement in about 3 years. Will be taking a 7-10 day vacation up there in July in Southern Maine and are considering maybe taking a day or two to get a feel for the real estate in the region. 

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So my wife and I are doing an art class in Alexandria, and class is tonight.   I call the organization up around 11am to ask what the status is, given all the other cancellations and early closings that have come in.   Initial answer is "we are going to wait a little longer and see," which seemed very sensible to me given the chance of a bust.  Ok, great.  I asked when they'll make the final call and I got a "we're not sure.  It's not doing anything here right now (note: at 11am) so I don't know what the big deal is."  I made some comment about trying to figure out my plans given the OPM early dismissal and I got a "the government's letting out early today?"  My faith in their judgment is not what it was at the beginning of the call...

Note my expectations are low for the storm tonight, but seriously, at least glance at the news...

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10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

You and me both lol

Unlikely to be in the jackpot but NWS probabilities for 18”+ are around 70%. Not to mention possible blizzard conditions and a wind chill warning. Don’t need 48” for the total package, but hey if the winds want to keep the LES over me I won’t be mad. 

Quite bragging.

And don't forget to post pics. 

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