January Banter 2019

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Maybe things finally turn around in March? When its too late?

That is what happened last year.

So you are writing off Feb? Based on?

[psuhoffman]

45 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Psu - when I posted in here, I hadn’t even looked in the long range thread. Now that we’ve separated those out, I don’t check that as much, as I have enough winters around here now to know what a delayed pattern looks like. I was in banter because, as often happens, the really good euro run gets run over by whatever fresh hell the 6z gfs unleashed. I thought bob’s post was kinda hopeful, and would have thought that maybe people who are so quick to dismiss the good cmc or gfs runs when the euro isn’t on board might give the euro more credence here. Looks like the only game in town is next tues/wedn so that is my focus. You sometimes overreact to general posts from people as if they are aimed at you specially, fwiw...

Not overreacting. I’m not upset. Just chatting. It’s all good. 

[RevWarReenactor]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

So you are writing off Feb? Based on?

The question should really be reversed. What are you basing a good Feb on? Blind faith that goes against statistically probabilities and against climo is pretty much all one has.

The window is closing quickly. Unless you like fluke March metlathons.

 

[CAPE]

Just now, Mdecoy said:

The question should really be reversed. What are you basing a good Feb on? Blind faith that goes against statistically probabilities and against climo is pretty much all one has.

The window is closing quickly. Unless you like fluke March metlathons.

 

lolz

[HighStakes]

35 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Holy shit. This may be the weirdest winter I can remember on these boards. And ironically it’s the snowiest winter since 16 for a majority of the area. 

It has been weird and we still have our snowiest month statistically 5 days away. I still would bet most of the forum beats climo for the year.

[RevWarReenactor]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

lolz

You can laugh all you want. The debs have been far more accurate than the models. Thats the truth of the matter.

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

The question should really be reversed. What are you basing a good Feb on? Blind faith that goes against statistically probabilities and against climo is pretty much all one has.

The window is closing quickly. Unless you like fluke March metlathons.

 

WTF are you talking about?  February is our snowiest month.  

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Always trying to stir the nest with me. Not sure why u take my stuff so personal. Insecurities? Only one real way to settle this.....beer pong. Name the time and place or IM me. Let's do this. 

 I was just making a point. I knew you were kidding last night BUT some might not and that was my point to why I replied. It wasn’t about you. I thought it was funny actually. 

As for how to settle this I should warn you I was west hall beer pong champion at psu hazleton 2 consecutive years so let’s do this. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

lolz

With that crap flying around people have a problem with MY posts?  I guess to some negative is negative and it all gets lumped together. 

[aldie 22]

Pretty sure most of us have at least one more double digit snowfall this winter and yeah it might be in March but still. We all grade a winters success differently and I doubt any of us will change another's mind. I am on record as a a lover of all snow even non accumulating events. That doesn't mean I don't love the chase and the excitement of the bigger storms of course I do but I'm not going to poo poo the others or even when they occur. I was in Wisconsin in April and we got 6" of snow...I loved it!! Who cares that it was April.  Anyway I've said my peace. I wish it would snow

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

WTF are you talking about?  February is our snowiest month.  

 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

With that crap flying around people have a problem with MY posts?  I guess to some negative is negative and it all gets lumped together. 

He is an awful poster. I was going to suggest he take it to the panic room, but then he would shit up that thread.

[RevWarReenactor]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

WTF are you talking about?  February is our snowiest month.  

Yeah, but climo says average DC Feb snowfall is about 4-5 inches. That is average. Quite a few years, with traces, half an inch. An inch or two.

So I am not saying Feb is not the "snowiest" month. I am saying, expectations need to be set certain places.

[aldie 22]

8 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

The question should really be reversed. What are you basing a good Feb on? Blind faith that goes against statistically probabilities and against climo is pretty much all one has.

The window is closing quickly. Unless you like fluke March metlathons.

 

You're an emotional poster...it makes it harder for people to understand your point...if you have one

[HighStakes]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

With that crap flying around people have a problem with MY posts?  I guess to some negative is negative and it all gets lumped together. 

That's exactly right. When you present your point as to what can go wrong or when you state you're getting a bad feeling about something it can get lumped in with these other people that have no idea what the hell they are talking about.

[RevWarReenactor]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

 

He is an awful poster. I was going to suggest he take it to the panic room, but then he would shit up that thread.

This is the banter thread. Instead of having a legit discussion on the reality of our situation, all you want to do is troll me. Thats on you, not me.

[WinterWxLuvr]

This forum has been tough to read this year.

Hopefully everyone realizes that we still have 6 weeks or more of solid winter left.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Pretty sure most of us have at least one more double digit snowfall this winter and yeah it might be in March but still. We all grade a winters success differently and I doubt any of us will change another's mind. I am on record as a a lover of all snow even non accumulating events. That doesn't mean I don't love the chase and the excitement of the bigger storms of course I do but I'm not going to poo poo the others or even when they occur. I was in Wisconsin in April and we got 6" of snow...I loved it!! Who cares that it was April.  Anyway I've said my peace. I wish it would snow

If folks would just accept the reality that sun angle is NBD, then they might actually enjoy late snow. The reason it isn't a big deal btw, is that even in January the snow generally melts quickly, or it warms up and rains on it. Snow cover does not stick around for long periods in our region very often.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Danajames said:

The 0600 run of the GFS looked a little more bullish than the midnight return as far as snow potential Tuesday night.  If that comes to fruition, I could see 2-3 inches.  Of course, the noon run might look completely different.  

Shame we can’t expect the same of your posts!

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If folks would just accept the reality that sun angle is NBD, then they might actually enjoy late snow. The reason it isn't a big deal btw, is that even in January the snow generally melts quickly, or it warms up and rains on it. Snow cover does not stick around for long periods in our region very often.

So true...in the big January 2016 storm I was posting pics on fb then a little later I posted a pic of a hawk on my fence with ZERO snow in the background...my work colleagues in New England didn't even acknowledge the hawk...they go...where did your snow go? Lol....snow coverage for us are the huge parking lot piles. 

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Yeah, but climo says average DC Feb snowfall is about 4-5 inches. That is average. Quite a few years, with traces, half an inch. An inch or two.

So I am not saying Feb is not the "snowiest" month. I am saying, expectations need to be set certain places.

You over react to everything. Yea it doesn’t look good right now. But we can only see to Feb 10 or so. And not very reliably. And what guidance we do have suggests we get a good pattern the second half of Feb. And our odds of snow on any given day don’t really start to dive until after the first week of March. 

But you take everything to extremes every time. Every bad period is the worst ever. Every fail is the biggest bust. Even a near normal year is crap to you. Early and late snow doesn’t count. It looks bad now so it’s over.  

This is the crap that gets people upset at my posts because some take a simple statement of fact “that right now guidance doesn’t look promising for the 8-15 day period” and react to that with omg the sky is falling it’s never going to snow again. 

Yea I’m disappointed but that doesn’t mean it’s over

[RevWarReenactor]

It isn't the "no sticking around" that bothers me. Its that during the storm itself, you will waste a ton of precip with melting, even if it is below freezing. Light snow produces little if any accumulation (even on snowpack). Streets will only be slushy and will melt off very quickly.

A lot needs to go right for March snow anyway. Last year were 2 nice March storms up here, and while I did enjoy them, they were different. Not ideal and it really sucked knowing they'd have been a lot better had they happened a month earlier.

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Let's do this man..I'm in  

Hell yea Americanwx beer pong championship!!!

[RevWarReenactor]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You over react to everything. Yea it doesn’t look good right now. But we can only see to Feb 10 or so. And not very reliably. And what guidance we do have suggests we get a good pattern the second half of Feb. And our odds of snow on any given day don’t really start to dive until after the first week of March. 

But you take everything to extremes every time. Every bad period is the worst ever. Every fail is the biggest bust. Even a near normal year is crap to you. Early and late snow doesn’t count. It looks bad now so it’s over.  

This is the crap that gets people upset at my posts because some take a simple statement of fact “that right now guidance doesn’t look promising for the 8-15 day period” and react to that with omg the sky is falling it’s never going to snow again. 

Yea I’m disappointed but that doesn’t mean it’s over

I think you have the wrong impression of me. It actually doesn't really take all that much to appease me. One good storm and I am good. Even after the 10 inches DC got, I kind of laughed at the complaints as being ridiculous.

But the reason I am so negative, is because the truth is, there has literally been nothing to be positive about. Not just this year, but for like 4 years now. I mean, essentially nothing. I've tried to think positive, that we still have 6 more weeks of winter and things could turn around....you are absolutely correct.

But honestly, how many times have we done that now only to get fooled by it? How many times have we said "this will turn around" and it doesn't. It just never turns around.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

So true...in the big January 2016 storm I was posting pics on fb then a little later I posted a pic of a hawk on my fence with ZERO snow in the background...my work colleagues in New England didn't even acknowledge the hawk...they go...where did your snow go? Lol....snow coverage for us are the huge parking lot piles. 

And even though we have had numerous March snow events in recent years- including very cold ones where the snow did stick around for a few days- you still hear stuff like 'march snow is not enjoyable its always gone a hour after it stops'.

[aldie 22]

Let's just face it we are all idiots in this hobby called winter

[CAPE]

This was taken on March 7, 2015. IIRC the temp was 2 att. I went hiking that day and took many more photos, and temps were in the 20s. It looked like deep winter.

Winter didn't really even start until mid Feb that year.

 

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If folks would just accept the reality that sun angle is NBD, then they might actually enjoy late snow. The reason it isn't a big deal btw, is that even in January the snow generally melts quickly, or it warms up and rains on it. Snow cover does not stick around for long periods in our region very often.

Amen. Snow rarely sticks around in the majority of this region. It rarely sticks around more than a couple days up here even. It’s not the sun angle it’s the fact that our temps are just too warm. We get above freezing 95% of the time even during cold periods. News flash snow melts above freezing!!!  Yea the sun angle doesn’t help in March but not to the extent people make it. We lost 30” of snowpack in 12 hours in 1996 in January at night because it got warm. Same in December 2009. And there have been rare times we had a sunny day in March but it was cold and the snow didn’t melt. I roll my eyes at this sun angle debate every time. We can’t keep snowpack. It’s our latitude, elevation, and proximity to a warm body of water. It’s not out climo. The sun is a part of that of course but it’s not THE problem. 

[mattie g]

Based on posts in other threads, it looks like Ji is going back on ignore. It took all of two days. Up until then I think I’ve been ignoring him ever since the move from eastern.

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

It isn't the "no sticking around" that bothers me. Its that during the storm itself, you will waste a ton of precip with melting, even if it is below freezing. Light snow produces little if any accumulation (even on snowpack). Streets will only be slushy and will melt off very quickly.

A lot needs to go right for March snow anyway. Last year were 2 nice March storms up here, and while I did enjoy them, they were different. Not ideal and it really sucked knowing they'd have been a lot better had they happened a month earlier.

What you just said is true even in mid winter if the temp is marginal and precip is light. It happened the start of Feb 12 2006. I can remember times like that in Dec and Jan too. Just suddenly in March “it’s the sun”. No it’s the marginal temps and rates. Yea it’s slightly worse in March. But if the temp is below 32 and it’s snowing hard it will stick in March. And if it’s 33 and not snowing hard it will struggle to stick even in January. 

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

I think you have the wrong impression of me. It actually doesn't really take all that much to appease me. One good storm and I am good. Even after the 10 inches DC got, I kind of laughed at the complaints as being ridiculous.

But the reason I am so negative, is because the truth is, there has literally been nothing to be positive about. Not just this year, but for like 4 years now. I mean, essentially nothing. I've tried to think positive, that we still have 6 more weeks of winter and things could turn around....you are absolutely correct.

But honestly, how many times have we done that now only to get fooled by it? How many times have we said "this will turn around" and it doesn't. It just never turns around.

We just passed the 3 year anniversary of one of our top snowstorms ever. Thanks for proving my point with the exaggerating.