January Banter 2019

[aldie 22]

All you can eat pancakes at IHOP what's your number....mine is 14...GO!!

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

All you can eat pancakes at IHOP what's your number....mine is 14...GO!!

I want a Five Guys burger. 

[aldie 22]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

I want a Five Guys burger. 

Reading comprehension much 

[Ralph Wiggum]

We need to cherry pick the stormiest and snowiest solution out of the 50 EPS members at 0z and then at 12z. Maybe create a thread on that particular member and discuss it ad nauseum until we will it into a HECS. We can do this.

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

Easternuswx and americanwx....Americas psychiatric couch for whiners, moaners and venters 

And dicks!!!

[Ralph Wiggum]

It seems with more and more tools and more indices being noted that long range and seasonal forecasting is actually becoming alot more of a crapshoot than it was even 10 years ago.

Someone likened it to a jigsaw puzzle and putting pieces together by basing a prediction off of a prediction from another index prediction dependent of the SST predictions etc. I am by no means a forecaster but I have learned a great deal in meteo at PSU and also way back on use net and mirc then neweather then eastern and now here. Learning every single day. But sometimes i think we tend to overcomplicate things when in fact it is often better to try and simplify things tho this will draw debate from both sides of that equation.

Back to the jigsaw puzzle analogy, I personally find it best to put the 'straight edges' together first and foremost and build the framework. Then take a hard look at those pieces that are joined together and fit and draw on that framework that has been laid down. Whereas I see this old method going by the wayside and folks try to piece the puzzle together from chaos of 1000 pieces in the center and build their way outward to the stable border.

Seems forecasting is becoming extremely computer and index based these days and less scientific and fact-based. Instead of looking at where we are at and devising a plan of how we may get to the next point I see too much reliance on say a weeklies prog and trying to cherry pick features that might support how we may get there. 

There just seems to be alot of "the week 3 pattern looks epic so you can clearly see how weeks 4 thru 6 will be (fill in the blanks) based on that look". This isnt one person, this isnt just here, you see this throughout the wx community especially more so since social media came on the scene.

Guess I just miss the simpler times of when I was learning back in the early and mid 90s. I'm getting old and this sounds cliche but my how things have changed. Modeling has certainly improved  but has 'forecasting'? Has it? I used to think how complex things were when I got into this hobby in 1992 and dont get me wrong.....meteorology is and always will be a very complex science. I just must those 'simpler' times.

Thanks for reading.

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It seems with more and more tools and more indices being noted that long range and seasonal forecasting is actually becoming alot more of a crapshoot than it was even 10 years ago.

Someone likened it to a jigsaw puzzle and putting pieces together by basing a prediction off of a prediction from another index prediction dependent of the SST predictions etc. I am by no means a forecaster but I have learned a great deal in meteo at PSU and also way back on use net and mirc then neweather then eastern and now here. Learning every single day. But sometimes i think we tend to overcomplicate things when in fact it is often better to try and simplify things tho this will draw debate from both sides of that equation.

Back to the jigsaw puzzle analogy, I personally find it best to put the 'straight edges' together first and foremost and build the framework. Then take a hard look at those pieces that are joined together and fit and draw on that framework that has been laid down. Whereas I see this old method going by the wayside and folks try to piece the puzzle together from chaos of 1000 pieces in the center and build their way outward to the stable border.

Seems forecasting is becoming extremely computer and index based these days and less scientific and fact-based. Instead of looking at where we are at and devising a plan of how we may get to the next point I see too much reliance on say a weeklies prog and trying to cherry pick features that might support how we may get there. 

There just seems to be alot of "the week 3 pattern looks epic so you can clearly see how weeks 4 thru 6 will be (fill in the blanks) based on that look". This isnt one person, this isnt just here, you see this throughout the wx community especially more so since social media came on the scene.

Guess I just miss the simpler times of when I was learning back in the early and mid 90s. I'm getting old and this sounds cliche but my how things have changed. Modeling has certainly improved  but has 'forecasting'? Has it? I used to think how complex things were when I got into this hobby in 1992 and dont get me wrong.....meteorology is and always will be a very complex science. I just must those 'simpler' times.

Thanks for reading.

I don’t think much was expected of seasonal back then. It was a novelty. Some are taking it seriously now. Same way we give a day 4 forecast some weight now when 30 years ago that was like the way we look at day 8 now. 

Some years seasonal is just impossible. Weak conflicting signals. Or major pattern drivers shift unexpectedly. Other years you get lucky and the major pattern driver is obvious and doesn’t change. 2010 was like that. Perfect enso and pdo. It was easy to predict a lot of snow that year. I thought this year was similar then the enso pulled back and the mjo took over and we are where we are. 

Most years it’s easy to do a retrospective and identify what went wrong. The problem is usually the factors weren’t able to be seen ahead of time. 

[Jebman]

Things are definitely looking up for the Mid Atlantic in terms of important cold and snow.

You guys are all gonna get CRUSHED.

[dailylurker]

So now were back to "winter is over"? I'll come back and look in a day or so. It will be "the weekly is epic, major -nao and perfact Pacific!". This has been the story all winter. My guess is that winter goes on like it always does. Some rain, some slop, some warm some cold then spring. 

[aldie 22]

I think it is ok to express disappointment about how the prospects are looking right now for the next little bit....but after you have expressed the exact same thoughts for the 95th time...at that point you're just being a whiner and a cry baby...you've made your feelings known and I'm quite sure your misery has plenty of company. The couch is full fellas time to go do something else...you're annoying AF....but of course...you knew that....right?

[aldie 22]

To add.... some of the same people who complain the loudest about bad posters mucking up the discussion threads...are often times the ones inviting them in with their incessant whining. I think the discussion threads need one of those ring doorbells 

[North Balti Zen]

All I know is the post I saw when I got up to let the puppy out was bob’s note that the euro was really good for early next week and then checking the board now feel like I misread or hallucinated bob’s post.

i am taking my youngest on some college visits over Presidents’ Day weekend to central and northeast Ohio so I guess I won’t worry about bad weather for that trip...

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I think it is ok to express disappointment about how the prospects are looking right now for the next little bit....but after you have expressed the exact same thoughts for the 95th time...at that point you're just being a whiner and a cry baby...you've made your feelings known and I'm quite sure your misery has plenty of company. The couch is full fellas time to go do something else...you're annoying AF....but of course...you knew that....right?

I don’t mind people saying how bad it looks when it’s actually that bad.  It’s the people that complain about a detail on an op run at 300 hours or when it’s not really a bad pattern or go into the long range thread and tell people what a waste of time it is to talk about long range. That annoys me. 

But I’ll tell you what also annoys me. People that stick their head in the sand when it’s bad. Saying it looks bad won’t make it so. And clinging to “maybe it’s wrong” isn’t actually analysis. 

I still analyze every run. When it looks good or bad. And I tell it like it is. 18z GEFS was a good run.  I said so. No one complained about that. 0z GEFS and eps was garbage and so I said so. Unfortunately the garbage is outweighting any fluke good runs in the long range10-1 right now. If we only talked about “good stuff” the long range thread might as well be closed. 

It’s not my fault if it ruins some people’s day to hear the pattern looks bad. I’m not happy about it either but I have a life and it goes on. Right now I’m traveling with my debate team to a tournament and trying to distract myself and pass time by talking weather.  It’s a distraction whether it looks good or bad. I wish it looked good. But people need to be able to deal emotionally when it sucks without getting mad at the messenger. 

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

All I know is the post I saw when I got up to let the puppy out was bob’s note that the euro was really good for early next week and then checking the board now feel like I misread or hallucinated bob’s post.

i am taking my youngest on some college visits over Presidents’ Day weekend to central and northeast Ohio so I guess I won’t worry about bad weather for that trip...

The euro was good for the frontal wave.  So was the eps.  Then some other guidance came in less good. I haven’t written some snow with that off. My one post in that thread to ji was mostly tongue in cheek. The negativity in the pattern thread is because everything goes to complete crap around day 8 on all the guidance. They are two different things. 

[aldie 22]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I don’t mind people saying how bad it looks when it’s actually that bad.  It’s the people that complain about a detail on an op run at 300 hours or when it’s not really a bad pattern or go into the long range thread and tell people what a waste of time it is to talk about long range. That annoys me. 

But I’ll tell you what also annoys me. People that stick their head in the sand when it’s bad. Saying it looks bad won’t make it so. And clinging to “maybe it’s wrong” isn’t actually analysis. 

I still analyze every run. When it looks good or bad. And I tell it like it is. 18z GEFS was a good run.  I said so. No one complained about that. 0z GEFS and eps was garbage and so I said so. Unfortunately the garbage is outweighting any fluke good runs in the long range10-1 right now. If we only talked about “good stuff” the long range thread might as well be closed. 

It’s not my fault if it ruins some people’s day to hear the pattern looks bad. I’m not happy about it either but I have a life and it goes on. Right now I’m traveling with my debate team to a tournament and trying to distract myself and pass time by talking weather.  It’s a distraction whether it looks good or bad. I wish it looked good. But people need to be able to deal emotionally when it sucks without getting mad at the messenger. 

I think you're in overkill at the moment...might just be me but you are really hammering home your point....a point that you've already made. I'm not seeing anyone sticking their head in the sand...it's not snowing at the moment...rats...it may snow several more times this winter...it might not...the models may give us clues for sure but....and I do mean but.

Good luck man...I'm just one weenie who occasionally expresses an opinion in banter. Maybe that's my therapy.  I wish it would snow

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

So now were back to "winter is over"? I'll come back and look in a day or so. It will be "the weekly is epic, major -nao and perfact Pacific!". This has been the story all winter. My guess is that winter goes on like it always does. Some rain, some slop, some warm some cold then spring. 

I wish it was this up down drill like you said. But truth is the preponderance of evidence is on crap. One run doesn’t matter at all past day 7. You have to see an idea lock in over multiple runs and move closer in time to feel any confidence. There will always be fluke runs that go off on a tangent at range.  But every time we get a good run lately it’s fokowed by 3 crap ones. And the crap is moving closer in time. I wish I was being illogical and just overreacting to volatility but that isn’t what’s happening here imo. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

So now were back to "winter is over"? I'll come back and look in a day or so. It will be "the weekly is epic, major -nao and perfact Pacific!". This has been the story all winter. My guess is that winter goes on like it always does. Some rain, some slop, some warm some cold then spring. 

Who has said winter is over, other than Ji?

[CAPE]

Some of you might want to stay out of the LR pattern thread if you can't parse the context of the discussion.

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I think you're in overkill at the moment...might just be me but you are really hammering home your point....a point that you've already made. I'm not seeing anyone sticking their head in the sand...it's not snowing at the moment...rats...it may snow several more times this winter...it might not...the models may give us clues for sure but....and I do mean but.

Good luck man...I'm just one weenie who occasionally expresses an opinion in banter. Maybe that's my therapy.  I wish it would snow

I don’t mind your opinion. You have every right to tell me to shut up. You did it more politely than most. But I’ll defend my POV also.  I guess we differ in that I want to see discussion on everything good or bad. I hate when I come into the thread and there is nothing there because it looked bad. Id rather see “it looks like crap and here is why” than nothing. Nothing is so depressing. It’s like the chase is over and the chase is half the fun.  

Also I respond to people. Ralph made that crap post about swfe and some people don’t know that he was being stupid so I said something. I don’t just make 25 post on each run saying it’s sucks. At least I don’t think so. Maybe I do. I’ll go look at my posts and if that’s so I’ll try to knock it off. 

This might be like my brother and me after eagles games.  He doesn’t want to listen to the post game after a loss. It’s just a bunch of talking about what went wrong. But I do. I like to analyze and understand good and bad. I’m weird. 

[CAPE]

I guess this is one thing that will never change here during the winter months lol.

Reading (misreading/misinterpretation) 'quality' posts in the disco threads, then overreaction, which propagates. Then the widespread panic ensues. Thread goes to shit.

 

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t mind your opinion. You have every right to tell me to shut up. You did it more politely than most. But I’ll defend my POV also.  I guess we differ in that I want to see discussion on everything good or bad. I hate when I come into the thread and there is nothing there because it looked bad. Id rather see “it looks like crap and here is why” than nothing. Nothing is so depressing. It’s like the chase is over and the chase is half the fun.  

Also I respond to people. Ralph made that crap post about swfe and some people don’t know that he was being stupid so I said something. I don’t just make 25 post on each run saying it’s sucks. At least I don’t think so. Maybe I do. I’ll go look at my posts and if that’s so I’ll try to knock it off. 

This might be like my brother and me after eagles games.  He doesn’t want to listen to the post game after a loss. It’s just a bunch of talking about what went wrong. But I do. I like to analyze and understand good and bad. I’m weird. 

 

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Who has said winter is over, other than Ji?

People hear “it looks bad” and translate it to winters over 

[RDM]

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t mind your opinion. You have every right to tell me to shut up. You did it more politely than most. But I’ll defend my POV also.  I guess we differ in that I want to see discussion on everything good or bad. I hate when I come into the thread and there is nothing there because it looked bad. Id rather see “it looks like crap and here is why” than nothing. Nothing is so depressing. It’s like the chase is over and the chase is half the fun.  

Also I respond to people. Ralph made that crap post about swfe and some people don’t know that he was being stupid so I said something. I don’t just make 25 post on each run saying it’s sucks. At least I don’t think so. Maybe I do. I’ll go look at my posts and if that’s so I’ll try to knock it off. 

This might be like my brother and me after eagles games.  He doesn’t want to listen to the post game after a loss. It’s just a bunch of talking about what went wrong. But I do. I like to analyze and understand good and bad. I’m weird. 

PSU - No, you're not weird and your posts are evidence of that.  I'm in your same boat wrt the science of this cursed affliction we all have and the analysis that should go with it.  I don't have a fraction of the experience you, Showme, Chill, Millville, Wes, CAPE, 007 and others have, which is why I read more and post less - even with 20+ years here and on Eastern.  Agree fully on the premise it does not matter if the outlook is for snow or not and if the runs are not promoting snow, some analysis as to what is amiss is a good opportunity to learn why.  That does not diminish my lust for snow one bit nor a poster's desire for snow who posts an analytical justification for why the odds are against us.  But it sure is more informative to ready why it's not going to snow that to just rant blindly about the situation like some do.  And for the record, there's nobody here who wants snow more than me.

If half the posters in the LR and the Storm Threat thread would also read more and post less then the overall quality of the information would be more beneficial to all.  There's several newbies who still don't get what banter is and/or don't have the self awareness to recognize when they are not contributing something worth reading, but just venting.  If they want to vent, and we all do from time to time, do it banter and give the Mods a break and help keep the sub-forums on topic, at least to the extent possible.  In that regard, it appears we may have a newbie who's a reincarnation of someone who was recently banned, and banned for good reason.  

What really takes the cake is when a newbie tries to challenge an experienced contributor in a main sub w/o the analysis to back a position.  Would be nice if there was a way to tag those sorts of posts with feedback to help that poster get a clue - maybe a stars rating like on eBay.  Partially joking on the stars idea but if there was such a rating option you and the others mentioned above would get 5 from me.   

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

People hear “it looks bad” and translate it to winters over 

Yeah that goes back to my parsing post. We discuss what guidance is depicting, add our analysis, go back and forth some, then rinse and repeat the next cycle. Its more the general idea stuff, and its changeable. That's the gig in the LR disco.

When there is a discrete threat within 5 days, the analysis is more tangible and detailed.

[North Balti Zen]

Psu - when I posted in here, I hadn’t even looked in the long range thread. Now that we’ve separated those out, I don’t check that as much, as I have enough winters around here now to know what a delayed pattern looks like. I was in banter because, as often happens, the really good euro run gets run over by whatever fresh hell the 6z gfs unleashed. I thought bob’s post was kinda hopeful, and would have thought that maybe people who are so quick to dismiss the good cmc or gfs runs when the euro isn’t on board might give the euro more credence here. Looks like the only game in town is next tues/wedn so that is my focus. You sometimes overreact to general posts from people as if they are aimed at you specially, fwiw...

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t mind people saying how bad it looks when it’s actually that bad.  It’s the people that complain about a detail on an op run at 300 hours or when it’s not really a bad pattern or go into the long range thread and tell people what a waste of time it is to talk about long range. That annoys me. 

But I’ll tell you what also annoys me. People that stick their head in the sand when it’s bad. Saying it looks bad won’t make it so. And clinging to “maybe it’s wrong” isn’t actually analysis. 

I still analyze every run. When it looks good or bad. And I tell it like it is. 18z GEFS was a good run.  I said so. No one complained about that. 0z GEFS and eps was garbage and so I said so. Unfortunately the garbage is outweighting any fluke good runs in the long range10-1 right now. If we only talked about “good stuff” the long range thread might as well be closed. 

It’s not my fault if it ruins some people’s day to hear the pattern looks bad. I’m not happy about it either but I have a life and it goes on. Right now I’m traveling with my debate team to a tournament and trying to distract myself and pass time by talking weather.  It’s a distraction whether it looks good or bad. I wish it looked good. But people need to be able to deal emotionally when it sucks without getting mad at the messenger. 

That's the sad part tbh....when you relay the good news you are an idol....a legend. Even if it fails u are immortal in the eyes of the weenie. The second you mention some negative fact you (not u verbatim obviously) are a downer, pessimist, satan-worshipping puppy-murdering son of a b!tch. That's the part that irks me. Many of us are limited in presenting details and need to walk on eggshells when presenting the facts. Alot of delicate flowers anymore....careful not to bruise their petals.

[nj2va]

Holy shit. This may be the weirdest winter I can remember on these boards. And ironically it’s the snowiest winter since 16 for a majority of the area. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t mind your opinion. You have every right to tell me to shut up. You did it more politely than most. But I’ll defend my POV also.  I guess we differ in that I want to see discussion on everything good or bad. I hate when I come into the thread and there is nothing there because it looked bad. Id rather see “it looks like crap and here is why” than nothing. Nothing is so depressing. It’s like the chase is over and the chase is half the fun.  

Also I respond to people. Ralph made that crap post about swfe and some people don’t know that he was being stupid so I said something. I don’t just make 25 post on each run saying it’s sucks. At least I don’t think so. Maybe I do. I’ll go look at my posts and if that’s so I’ll try to knock it off. 

This might be like my brother and me after eagles games.  He doesn’t want to listen to the post game after a loss. It’s just a bunch of talking about what went wrong. But I do. I like to analyze and understand good and bad. I’m weird. 

Always trying to stir the nest with me. Not sure why u take my stuff so personal. Insecurities? Only one real way to settle this.....beer pong. Name the time and place or IM me. Let's do this. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Always trying to stir the nest with me. Not sure why u take my stuff so personal. Insecurities? Only one real way to settle this.....beer pong. Name the time and place or IM me. Let's do this. 

To be fair, it was dumb. I called you on it first.

The acronym SWFE was invented in the NE forum, and it describes a setup unique to that region.

[RevWarReenactor]

Maybe things finally turn around in March? When its too late?

That is what happened last year.