January Banter 2019

[psuhoffman]

@Bob Chill  On other thing probably influencing my skepticism, I am not comforted by the fact that when I looked at warm neutral years that match our current pattern drivers...just to see what we are dealing with if the nino inst really having the atmospheric impact we want and the results were pretty grim.  On top of that... a few years popped up that had the very rare characteristic of years where the DC area actually did better wrt snowfall than my area.  That only happens like once every 20 years...yet a couple of those years like 1980 show up in the limited set of warm neutral analog years.  Oddly what the set seemed to indicate is the DC area is likely to have a mediocre to good snowfall year...but my area is a total suck fest.  I don't necessarily mean from a pure number but wrt climo.  If my area and DC both get 20" that was a top 20% winter for DC and a bottom 20% one for me.  That seems to be the MO of some warm neutral winters with other similar characteristics like PDO and QBO.  Hopefully Isotherm and others are right regarding the pacific taking on nino characteristics soon because the analogs say warm neutral gives me what I have had so far...total crap.  

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill  On other thing probably influencing my skepticism, I am not comforted by the fact that when I looked at warm neutral years that match our current pattern drivers...just to see what we are dealing with if the nino inst really having the atmospheric impact we want and the results were pretty grim.  On top of that... a few years popped up that had the very rare characteristic of years where the DC area actually did better wrt snowfall than my area.  That only happens like once every 20 years...yet a couple of those years like 1980 show up in the limited set of warm neutral analog years.  Oddly what the set seemed to indicate is the DC area is likely to have a mediocre to good snowfall year...but my area is a total suck fest.  I don't necessarily mean from a pure number but wrt climo.  If my area and DC both get 20" that was a top 20% winter for DC and a bottom 20% one for me.  That seems to be the MO of some warm neutral winters with other similar characteristics like PDO and QBO.  Hopefully Isotherm and others are right regarding the pacific taking on nino characteristics soon because the analogs say warm neutral gives me what I have had so far...total crap.  

I think it's best to just let things play out over time here and not try and fit this year into any box. Analogs are good but think about 13-14 and 14-15... the analogs for that setup in no way shape or form favor numerous events and big snow. We may be on the verge of an extended decent EC pattern. More blocking is showing up on the panels now than any of the last 4+ years. That counts for something. Especially the AO. Get that firmly negative for a month and really good things can happen in any year. 

ETA: one more positive thing... it's been really warm in general for like 6 weeks now with only transient breaks in an AN temp regime. Ensembles look solid for the longest stretch of cold wx we've seen all year. That counts for something too. 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think it's best to just let things play out over time here and not try and fit this year into any box. Analogs are good but think about 13-14 and 14-15... the analogs for that setup in no way shape or form favor numerous events and big snow. We may be on the verge of an extended decent EC pattern. More blocking is showing up on the panels now than any of the last 4+ years. That counts for something. Especially the AO. Get that firmly negative for a month and really good things can happen in any year. 

ETA: one more positive thing... it's been really warm in general for like 6 weeks now with only transient breaks in an AN temp regime. Ensembles look solid for the longest stretch of cold wx we've seen all year. That counts for something too. 

You are probably right.  And I still am hopeful and kind of expect this to turn around. 

Gun to my head right now I would say things improve and we get a pretty good finish.  But the latest recycle of the MJO through warm phases and the SOI spike have me slightly skittish and lacking the confidence I had in that assessment 2 weeks ago.  Matter of fact I made a post about 10 days ago where I even said something like "well if the MJO only spends a few days in cold phases then rockets right back to warm phases and goes ape through 4/5/6 again and the SOI spikes again...then we might be in trouble".  Well...here we are so I would be foolish to just ignore my own advice.  There is still time for this to turn around and right now guidance says it will...but twice this winter now we have been where we are now, with guidance looking good...and then suddenly the MJO and SOI took a total dump on our face and it went to hell fast.  I don't think that is going to happen again.  I really don't, but I am way less sure.  I will only feel confident this time once the pattern is basically on top of us and locked in. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill  On other thing probably influencing my skepticism, I am not comforted by the fact that when I looked at warm neutral years that match our current pattern drivers...just to see what we are dealing with if the nino inst really having the atmospheric impact we want and the results were pretty grim.  On top of that... a few years popped up that had the very rare characteristic of years where the DC area actually did better wrt snowfall than my area.  That only happens like once every 20 years...yet a couple of those years like 1980 show up in the limited set of warm neutral analog years.  Oddly what the set seemed to indicate is the DC area is likely to have a mediocre to good snowfall year...but my area is a total suck fest.  I don't necessarily mean from a pure number but wrt climo.  If my area and DC both get 20" that was a top 20% winter for DC and a bottom 20% one for me.  That seems to be the MO of some warm neutral winters with other similar characteristics like PDO and QBO.  Hopefully Isotherm and others are right regarding the pacific taking on nino characteristics soon because the analogs say warm neutral gives me what I have had so far...total crap.  

I see what you're saying here, and agree it's a matter of perspective to an extent.  20" here in metro DC would be looked at differently simply because it exceeds climatology.  But then again, your climo is (I believe?) about double that in DC.  I would guess the variance from year-to-year is notably less, too.  In terms of absolute amounts, a "meh" winter here is nearly always totally craptastic, as it implies probably getting < 10" or even worse, low single digit amounts.  And there have been plenty of those.

So then we get into subjectivity.  Yeah, we got lucky with the 10-12" here in the middle of a "blah" pattern where things happened to work out.  But if winter ends with a couple more dink events that just pushed us over the mean, I don't think many here would consider it a good winter all the same.  Especially if it's mostly warm with weekly flood watches outside an event or two that gives us a sloppy 1-3"/2-4".  We'd feel lucky to get that one event, though, to be sure.

Now, if that one event was, say, like Jan. 2016...that would be viewed differently of course because that's an historic level event.  But even still, I know a few in here said they thought that outside that event, 2015-16 sucked (even though, other than the record warm Dec. 2015, the rest of that winter was a bit colder than normal for Jan-Feb).  On a related note, I think a lot of people didn't much care for 2006-07.  Certainly not the first half.  But to be honest, despite the fact that we didn't get a lot of snow in the end and just missed on the V-Day storm (getting sleet and ice instead), I actually kind of liked that winter because it was very cold from the end of January into early March, and there were opportunities in there too.

I think expectations play a part, too.  Not long ago all guidance was pointing to a great period for winter weather, and prolonged at that.  Then suddenly, things got uncertain or even not so great looking and we feel that now we have to try salvaging something.  Though there are also indications lately, I guess, that it might not be all bad and there is improvement indicated.  So I'm sure many are feeling a letdown because we seem to have "lost" that great potential that seemed so likely.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I see what you're saying here, and agree it's a matter of perspective to an extent.  20" here in metro DC would be looked at differently simply because it exceeds climatology.  But then again, your climo is (I believe?) about double that in DC.  I would guess the variance from year-to-year is notably less, too.  In terms of absolute amounts, a "meh" winter here is nearly always totally craptastic, as it implies probably getting < 10" or even worse, low single digit amounts.  And there have been plenty of those.

So then we get into subjectivity.  Yeah, we got lucky with the 10-12" here in the middle of a "blah" pattern where things happened to work out.  But if winter ends with a couple more dink events that just pushed us over the mean, I don't think many here would consider it a good winter all the same.  Especially if it's mostly warm with weekly flood watches outside an event or two that gives us a sloppy 1-3"/2-4".  We'd feel lucky to get that one event, though, to be sure.

Now, if that one event was, say, like Jan. 2016...that would be viewed differently of course because that's an historic level event.  But even still, I know a few in here said they thought that outside that event, 2015-16 sucked (even though, other than the record warm Dec. 2015, the rest of that winter was a bit colder than normal for Jan-Feb).  On a related note, I think a lot of people didn't much care for 2006-07.  Certainly not the first half.  But to be honest, despite the fact that we didn't get a lot of snow in the end and just missed on the V-Day storm (getting sleet and ice instead), I actually kind of liked that winter because it was very cold from the end of January into early March, and there were opportunities in there too.

I think expectations play a part, too.  Not long ago all guidance was pointing to a great period for winter weather, and prolonged at that.  Then suddenly, things got uncertain or even not so great looking and we feel that now we have to try salvaging something.  Though there are also indications lately, I guess, that it might not be all bad and there is improvement indicated.  So I'm sure many are feeling a letdown because we seem to have "lost" that great potential that seemed so likely.

My average snowfall for the 11 seasons I have lived in Manchester MD is 45.4"

My average snowfall for the 15 years I have lived in Carroll County is 41.2" but that includes my years in Westminster which gets a decent bit less snow than Manchester.  

I tried to use coop data from the area to compile a climo going back to the 1800s and I found using the closest available coop in any given season with reliable snowfall data that the local average was about 38".  But I live on the top of a ridge at about the highest elevation in Carroll County in the northern tip of the county at about the snowiest spot in MD east of the Catoctins.  So all the coop locations I was using get less snowfall than me by 3-5" a year so I would guess the long term snowfall average here to be somewhere around 41-42".  I suspect the 45" average for the last 11 years is skewed by the 101" I got in 2010.  That will skew a small sample size pretty significantly! 

A better idea of "what to expect" is probably my median which is 35" meaning in any given year I have a 50/50 chance of getting more or less than 35". 

My variance is a LOT less than DC area

In my 11 years here 6 fell between 33 and 54".  2 were above that and 3 below.  Historically a significant portion of the winters fall between 30 and 55" with an equal minority falling below or above that range.  But I would say a winter in the 30's or 40's is typical here with above or below that being a very good or very bad year.  

[nj2va]

5 hours ago, mattie g said:

I might have to post some pics of the first daffodil shoots and forsythia buds of the year. And as the sun reaches higher and higher into the sky for longer and longer each day, those buds will be joined by many of their close friends...

I already have some daffodils shooting up (which is crazy).  Shhhh.

[stormtracker]

I can’t seem to muster one but of excitement over today’s runs.  It’s like the boy who cried wolf. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I can’t seem to muster one but of excitement over today’s runs.  It’s like the boy who cried wolf. 

We've only just now cracked under 10 days for 2 potential events. I'm not going to get excited until one is under 4 days. It's been a good day in model fantasyland but plenty of work to do. Ji needs to deb us right into the promised land. 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

We've only just now cracked under 10 days for 2 potential events. I'm not going to get excited until one is under 4 days. It's been a good day in model fantasyland but plenty of work to do. Ji needs to deb us right into the promised land. 

I hear ya, but I'm kinda winded with these see-saw days.  This current good day is going to crash and burn in 12-24 hours.  And then this forum will be unreadable again.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

My average snowfall for the 11 seasons I have lived in Manchester MD is 45.4"

My average snowfall for the 15 years I have lived in Carroll County is 41.2" but that includes my years in Westminster which gets a decent bit less snow than Manchester.  

I tried to use coop data from the area to compile a climo going back to the 1800s and I found using the closest available coop in any given season with reliable snowfall data that the local average was about 38".  But I live on the top of a ridge at about the highest elevation in Carroll County in the northern tip of the county at about the snowiest spot in MD east of the Catoctins.  So all the coop locations I was using get less snowfall than me by 3-5" a year so I would guess the long term snowfall average here to be somewhere around 41-42".  I suspect the 45" average for the last 11 years is skewed by the 101" I got in 2010.  That will skew a small sample size pretty significantly! 

A better idea of "what to expect" is probably my median which is 35" meaning in any given year I have a 50/50 chance of getting more or less than 35". 

My variance is a LOT less than DC area

In my 11 years here 6 fell between 33 and 54".  2 were above that and 3 below.  Historically a significant portion of the winters fall between 30 and 55" with an equal minority falling below or above that range.  But I would say a winter in the 30's or 40's is typical here with above or below that being a very good or very bad year.  

Didn't realize your average was that much!  Thanks for the better context, and as I suspected, the variance from year to year is much less than it is out this way.

Actually, your average is surprisingly not extremely less than KCLE (my home town), really.  I think their mean annual snow is 55-60", some of that is lake enhanced.  Of course if you go east and southeast of the city it increases dramatically due to lake effect snow (100"+ in the heart of the snow belt...yay Chardon in Geauga County!).

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Didn't realize your average was that much!  Thanks for the better context, and as I suspected, the variance from year to year is much less than it is out this way.

Actually, your average is surprisingly not extremely less than KCLE (my home town), really.  I think their mean annual snow is 55-60", some of that is lake enhanced.  Of course if you go east and southeast of the city it increases dramatically due to lake effect snow (100"+ in the heart of the snow belt...yay Chardon in Geauga County!).

Cleveland probably has significantly more snow days but I get bigger storms to keep it close. Being at ~1050 feet helps a lot.  Especially when that’s the highest elevation in the area and the first ridge that gets hit with a east wind...coastals can can dump here if they track close enough. 

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

You dead?

Not reaped....I was just tired of snowstormpsu90210 constant negativity so I decided to concentrate on going out on dates rather than reading weather posts. As you can see I'm back already 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Cleveland probably has significantly more snow days but I get bigger storms to keep it close. Being at ~1050 feet helps a lot.  Especially when that’s the highest elevation in the area and the first ridge that gets hit with a east wind...coastals can can dump here if they track close enough. 

You are spot on about Cleveland (and northeast OH in general).  They do have more actual snow days simply because it's colder plus the Lake effect (even if it's light).  With the right flow, you can get at least flurries nearly every day.  But what I've noticed in all the years I grew up there and now living here for the past ~18 years...is that a storm of 12"+ in Cleveland is really quite rare, at least on the synoptic level (Lake effect is a totally different, and localized, animal).  Until I moved to this area, I *never* was in a 20"+ storm.  Not once.  I now have seen four of them starting with the PD-II storm in 2003 (first real storm since moving here in 2001).  Add in a couple of 12"+ events on top of that through that time.

Even with some far more dangerous and severe winter storms that I've been through in Ohio, you don't get the same prolific QPF producers in the midwest that you can with coastals, of course.  Though we occasionally did share in the outskirts of major East Coast storms there (the 1993 storm is a prime example).

(ETA:  There's also the fact that winter in northeast OH is noticeably longer...you can get legitimate snow from early November through early April most years.  I don't know how many years the Indians had their home opener snowed out!).

[HighStakes]

19 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Didn't realize your average was that much!  Thanks for the better context, and as I suspected, the variance from year to year is much less than it is out this way.

Actually, your average is surprisingly not extremely less than KCLE (my home town), really.  I think their mean annual snow is 55-60", some of that is lake enhanced.  Of course if you go east and southeast of the city it increases dramatically due to lake effect snow (100"+ in the heart of the snow belt...yay Chardon in Geauga County!).

If anyone is into weather, geography, micro climates etc. the area around Northern Carroll, more specifically Northeast Carroll is fascinating. I live in the valley at approximately 880 ft. elevation. PSU lives on the ridge directly in back of my house at 150-170 ft. higher probably not even 1/4 of a mile away.

I've seen marginal zr events where the trees on his ridge are caked with ice and my trees are just wet or have minimal ice. I've seen marginal wet snow event ms where I get 6-7 inches and he gets 8 or more. 

There are many instances where the winds are calm at my house and I look up on his ridge and the trees are swaying. 

Also when we get on the backside of coastal pulling away we get enhanced bands or little finger bands develope and keep the snow going. 

Also there are times when we get our own private little snowstorms. I've seen rouge lake effect bands set up over us on a northwest flow. It's rare but when they do they can produce 2-3 inches. This happened in Feb. 2007 and again in early Feb. 2009 ( the inverted trough event that gave some areas in south central and southeastern PA 8-12 inches ). It happened again in the horrendous winter of 2012. We picked up 2-3 inches following a cold front when virtually all other areas got a dusting. 

Then there was March 30th 2014 where the strong low pulled down cold air and our elevation helped produce a 6-10 inch storm. The heaviest accumulations were limited to only a 5 square mile radius centered around Manchester. Highest ridges getting 10. Westminster and Hampstead got 4-6. Only snow tv south of there. And of course there was also October 2011 where the area around Northern Carroll got 6-8 and much less south towards Reisterstown. 

Not a bad area if you dont mind getting fringed lol.

[showmethesnow]

 

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Not reaped....I was just tired of snowstormpsu90210 constant negativity so I decided to concentrate on going out on dates rather than reading weather posts. As you can see I'm back already 

Ran out of money? Yeah those hookers can get pricey. 

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

Ran out of money? Yeah those hookers can get pricey. 

Especially in vegas. Did you send the wife to a day at the spa?

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Not reaped....I was just tired of snowstormpsu90210 constant negativity so I decided to concentrate on going out on dates rather than reading weather posts. As you can see I'm back already 

Notice how you haven't see him for the past 2 days?

Mmmhmm

[aldie 22]

Boy if the pattern gets good I'm sure glad we know where everyone stood the last few days...gonna be fun to go back and read the nervous nellies or the panicky p's and the whiney wusses and those that held steady...you all know who you are

[RDM]

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Notice how you haven't see him for the past 2 days?

Mmmhmm

I saw your post when you did the needy.  Was surprised at the time there was not more rejoicing.  Watch quietly and carry a big stick - very effective and thank you.  He had every chance to heed the advice from many.  

[Fozz]

6 hours ago, HighStakes said:

If anyone is into weather, geography, micro climates etc. the area around Northern Carroll, more specifically Northeast Carroll is fascinating. I live in the valley at approximately 880 ft. elevation. PSU lives on the ridge directly in back of my house at 150-170 ft. higher probably not even 1/4 of a mile away.

I've seen marginal zr events where the trees on his ridge are caked with ice and my trees are just wet or have minimal ice. I've seen marginal wet snow event ms where I get 6-7 inches and he gets 8 or more. 

There are many instances where the winds are calm at my house and I look up on his ridge and the trees are swaying. 

Also when we get on the backside of coastal pulling away we get enhanced bands or little finger bands develope and keep the snow going. 

Also there are times when we get our own private little snowstorms. I've seen rouge lake effect bands set up over us on a northwest flow. It's rare but when they do they can produce 2-3 inches. This happened in Feb. 2007 and again in early Feb. 2009 ( the inverted trough event that gave some areas in south central and southeastern PA 8-12 inches ). It happened again in the horrendous winter of 2012. We picked up 2-3 inches following a cold front when virtually all other areas got a dusting. 

Then there was March 30th 2014 where the strong low pulled down cold air and our elevation helped produce a 6-10 inch storm. The heaviest accumulations were limited to only a 5 square mile radius centered around Manchester. Highest ridges getting 10. Westminster and Hampstead got 4-6. Only snow tv south of there. And of course there was also October 2011 where the area around Northern Carroll got 6-8 and much less south towards Reisterstown. 

Not a bad area if you dont mind getting fringed lol.

Northern MD climo has fascinated me for years, especially the upper reaches of Parr's ridge where you and PSU live. 22 miles away and it seems like a different world. I've driven through the area a few times and the scenery is quite amazing.

My snowfall is also enhanced by elevation to some extent (west of 83 has some pretty nice hills around here) and often times my totals from many small marginal events have surprised @mappy, who works in the lower areas of Hunt Valley and sometimes sees much less than what I report, though she has never once doubted my totals. Also I could've sworn I've seen lingering light snow on the backend of many coastal storms for many hours afterwords (though it's always been very light snowTV), but it's definitely not in the same league as getting several additional inches.

That late March 2014 storm is probably the most extreme Carroll county special that I've ever heard of. I saw nothing more than heavy snowTV, but was amazed at the totals that your area reported, as well as the look of the Manchester street cam. October 2011 was not that impressive here (unless you rate it by October standards), but was much better even in Parkton and definitely into PA where I went on a little chase.

[aldie 22]

Today will be a big day my bar is set at "yeah but if you extrapolate it's really not good "

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Today will be a big day my bar is set at "yeah but if you extrapolate it's really not good "

FYP

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

FYP

Here we go...first shot fired

[midatlanticweather]

Happy 19th anniversary of the January 25, 2000 snowstorm surprise!

https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Blizzard

 

[pasnownut]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Here we go...first shot fired

 

likely a miss, but if you shoot often enough....your bound to hit something.

 

 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

 

likely a miss, but if you shoot often enough....your bound to hit something.

 

 

To be clear my bar is for someone else nitpicking...I looked out the window this morning....nothing yet. I wish it would snow 

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

To be clear my bar is for someone else nitpicking...I looked out the window this morning....nothing yet. I wish it would snow 

I gotcha....and boy do I concur.

JI, is always lurking....he's gotchu

[showmethesnow]

@pasnownut @leesburg 04 Can we please keep the banter down? You are disturbing the Debs. 

[Jandurin]

i feel a great debsturbance in the force

[nj2va]

Welp, its the apocalypse.  We're officially doomed as a country...are people that desperate to always be on their phones?  I heard this on the radio this morning and honestly didn't believe it...

https://mobilesyrup.com/2019/01/18/sphoon_phork-smartphone-case-built-in-spoon-fork/