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January Banter 2019

George BM

By George BM,
in Mid Atlantic

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nj2va

nj2va

Posted
Posted

Hi @Bob Chill :poster_oops:

On 1/3/2019 at 4:33 PM, Bob Chill said:

We're in some trouble here man. All ens are really warm in the mids and surface d11+. EPS is pushing 50 d15 @ DCA. A mean temp that warm 15 days out is pretty bad. IMO the mean height patterns are not promising and I expect nothing but rain and very brief cool shots over the next 15 days. My gut is saying a flip to cold and snowy is becoming increasingly unlikely at any point this winter. We might get some snow but it just has the feel that an extended period of winter wx isn't in the cards this year. 

I hope this post gets bump trolled like F after our first 2 HECS in Feb though...

 

On 1/3/2019 at 4:46 PM, Bob Chill said:

When the Pac went to hell on the ens back in Dec I posted several times that I would get increasingly nervous the longer it held on. Here we are 3 weeks later staring at at least 2 more weeks of it...  It's not a midatlantic problem unfortunately. It's a north american problem... It's pretty obvious now that this winter has shown us the base state. I'm with you though. Let's find something flawed, mangled, and banged up to track. Something to break up the monotony of this Pac hell quagmire we're stuck in. 

Signed,

the pattern change kings PSU and CAPE @psuhoffman @C.A.P.E.

:P

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, snjókoma said:

Going with the model showing the least snow for DC has worked out remarkably well for the past 2 or 3 years - that includes the Jan 2016 blizzard. 

 

I don't think the GFS for the Jan. 2016 blizzard was exactly "the least" as I recall.  In fact, I thought it was the Euro that had a run (or 2?) right on the eve of the storm that kind of burped and cut back precip totals, which turned out not to be right.  That DCA recorded "only" 17.8" snow doesn't matter (they always seem to be less at that airport), the entire region got 20-30" (including in the District itself, not DCA), with some places pushing 3 feet or more.

Here's an image of the 48-h total QPF from the GFS, from the 12Z run the morning right before the storm began.  It has ~2.50"+ liquid equivalent over the area, and was fairly consistent for some time before this cycle too:

 

image.thumb.png.8602862b8579df4a3c837b81a7043e38.png

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Posted
4 minutes ago, mappy said:

 


It is pretty awful


.

 

We can probably just let it fly at this point. We're fast approaching nowcast mode and unless consensus suddenly shifts one direction or another, all we're going to do in disco is regurgitate the same outcome every run from every model. 

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snjókoma

snjókoma

Posted
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9 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

 

I don't think the GFS for the Jan. 2016 blizzard was exactly "the least" as I recall.  In fact, I thought it was the Euro that had a run (or 2?) right on the eve of the storm that kind of burped and cut back precip totals, which turned out not to be right.  That DCA recorded "only" 17.8" snow doesn't matter (they always seem to be less at that airport), the entire region got 20-30" (including in the District itself, not DCA), with some places pushing 3 feet or more.

Here's an image of the 48-h total QPF from the GFS, from the 12Z run the morning right before the storm began.  It has ~2.50"+ liquid equivalent over the area, and was fairly consistent for some time before this cycle too:

 

image.thumb.png.8602862b8579df4a3c837b81a7043e38.png

I think you misunderstood. I'm not saying the GFS specifically is the model with the least snow for DC - in fact I remember it having some monster outputs in the Jan 2016 blizzard. I'm saying that whatever model is most pessimistic - GFS, NAM, Euro, whatever - is the best bet. 

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H2O

H2O

Posted
Posted
Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Hypothetically, if you had a choice of being in Charlottesville or Arlington for the storm, where would you for this one?

When making your recommendation, remember that I’ve missed both storms this year by being in the wrong place, so I’m not exactly a good luck charm.

Carbondale

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nj2va

nj2va

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Hypothetically, if you had a choice of being in Charlottesville or Arlington for the storm, where would you for this one?

When making your recommendation, remember that I’ve missed both storms this year by being in the wrong place, so I’m not exactly a good luck charm.

Cville

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Hypothetically, if you had a choice of being in Charlottesville or Arlington for the storm, where would you for this one?

When making your recommendation, remember that I’ve missed both storms this year by being in the wrong place, so I’m not exactly a good luck charm.

I don't think it matters. Probably equal odds as to which area has the best event. And I don't think there will be a big spread between the 2 either...famous last words.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, snjókoma said:

I think you misunderstood. I'm not saying the GFS specifically is the model with the least snow for DC - in fact I remember it having some monster outputs in the Jan 2016 blizzard. I'm saying that whatever model is most pessimistic - GFS, NAM, Euro, whatever - is the best bet. 

I see that, and my apologies, you in fact didn't specifically say the GFS for that case (2016 blizzard).  It just happens to be one of the models I saved output for (being an historical event, I had to keep various model output!) so I showed it.  But even still, the models that were pumping out high QPF were correct overall in the end I recall.  Which was nearly all of them by that point!  Maybe we didn't get the ultra-"extreme" values that some meso models were pumping out, but the very high totals were quite good.

Now, that said, I'm not in any way saying that the higher QPF models for this weekend's event will be correct (but I sure hope so!).  I was only pointing out for that one event since you had mentioned it, too.

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T. August

T. August

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Agreed. South of the potomac and SoMD has the best chance at more than 5". It's nice that models have come to full agreement that everyone gets at least 2". NE MD is probably the only place at risk for less than that but I doubt it now. 

I already figured I wasn’t in a great spot but seeing Bob say it really hit home.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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2 minutes ago, T. August said:

I already figured I wasn’t in a great spot but seeing Bob say it really hit home.

It's a weird storm with the strong confluence. Precip shield has a downhill slant to it on the northern side due to strong confluence and NEMD is looking a little too far north for coastal enhancement. Vast majority of storms like this don't have the downhill look to the precip shield. It may not make a difference in the end. Models have really smoothed out the precip gradients today so there's literally no sharp cutoffs anywhere until you get into PA/NJ or south where it will mix. 

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T. August

T. August

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a weird storm with the strong confluence. Precip shield has a downhill slant to it on the northern side due to strong confluence and NEMD is looking a little too far north for coastal enhancement. Vast majority of storms like this don't have the downhill look to the precip shield. It may not make a difference in the end. Models have really smoothed out the precip gradients today so there's literally no sharp cutoffs anywhere until you get into PA/NJ or south where it will mix. 

Thanks Bob, appreciate the insight.

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