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January Banter 2019


George BM

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7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Don't worry folks between mid March and mid April we will probably have a bunch of rainy nor'easters that drop 6" of rain each with winds gusting to 60 mph.

I hope so. At least we would finally get some interesting weather. By then we will be tired of cloudy, damp and 50 everyday 

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4 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Don't worry folks between mid March and mid April we will probably have a bunch of rainy nor'easters that drop 6" of rain each with winds gusting to 60 mph.

In other words, multiple hits from somewhat decent tropical compared to what we usually see around here. We abscond.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not me. One year ago today was the eve of BOMB CYCLONE I.

I was positioned in Rehoboth Beach and about to experience the best blizzard since Feb 2010.

It's been warm and I got stuck in a snowstorm in North Carolina at my cousin's house and it's not dry because it rains 1-7 times a week. Pretty okay compared to cold and dry.

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19 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Yes, that’s right.  That was a great stretch for sure, but one that will not happen again for a long time if i had to guess.  I follow this forum more than the others because of the great analysis that goes on in here.  Sucks that this winter fell apart after so much hope.

So just last winter the idea of "persistence" failed utterly spectacularly and you are riding that train again already?  OK  

You might be right about this winter...but "persistence" is not a scientifically valid reason for it.  If the pattern persists it will be because factors remain in place that are causing it do not change.  But patterns and those factors that drive a pattern can and do and HAVE changed suddenly.  NO pattern ever lasts forever.  Predicting WHEN a pattern will change is the key.  If you think the pattern will persist the rest of winter that is a valid opinion...but instead of saying "because of persistence" give the reasons why you think the pattern sucks and then the reasons why those reasons will not change for the rest of winter.  That would be a valid argument.  "because persistence" is not.  

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40 minutes ago, Ji said:

have we seen a real west based -NAO this season yet?

yes. 4 days in December. 

5 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not me. One year ago today was the eve of BOMB CYCLONE I.

I was positioned in Rehoboth Beach and about to experience the best blizzard since Feb 2010.

519097364_NASAbombcyclone.thumb.jpg.e013582775c2742ce026e07d96b3f3d4.jpg

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/09/nasa-pictures-of-the-bomb-cyclone-and-freezing-temperatures-from-space.html

You can see the differences between El Nino and La Nina. I might like La Nina better. 

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8 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

yes. 4 days in December. 

You can see the differences between El Nino and La Nina. I might like La Nina better. 

Not sure we have a Nino- at least not much atmospheric response yet. I would take last Jan over the way this one looks to play out, and its not even close.

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