40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: RGEM at 18z is pretty similar to the Euro in axis. Gotta get some south of the Pike for that crowd though. Yea, they're in my prayers. How much for KLWM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 There's def a little blow up right as it exits stage right...if that can pop just a shade sooner then there could be some higher amounts. That's something to watch...esp for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: RGEM at 18z is pretty similar to the Euro in axis. Gotta get some south of the Pike for that crowd though. High end advisory stuff there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's def a little blow up right as it exits stage right...if that can pop just a shade sooner then there could be some higher amounts. That's something to watch...esp for eastern areas. Seen some good warning events like you and i have mentioned when these get going sooner, Eastern areas of SNE, Coast here and DE are favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Man I’d be happy as a pig in poop if I got 1-2” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man I’d be happy as a pig in poop if I got 1-2” Tide is turning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Seen some good warning events like you and i have mentioned when these get going sooner, Eastern areas of SNE, Coast here and DE are favored. UKMET is a dead ringer for the Euro and PFs upslope looks sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: UKMET is a dead ringer for the Euro and PFs upslope looks sweet Nice, I wanted to check the uncle a while ago but was out getting the yard done then it was onto the Euro when i got back in and forgot to go back and look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 And our 1-3” is gone in Friday’s mild up. At least it’ll be winter for a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: And our 1-3” is gone in Friday’s mild up. At least it’ll be winter for a day My son thinks we live in RDU. Keeps asking about snow. Poor guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: My son thinks we live in RDU. Keeps asking about snow. Poor guy. Do you tell him to go ask mom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: My son thinks we live in RDU. Keeps asking about snow. Poor guy. We’re having a DC winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’re having a DC winter We take what we get. Hopefully we’re deep winter later in the month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 22 minutes ago, weathafella said: We take what we get. Hopefully we’re deep winter later in the month... Hope springs eternal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 I think this system blows up sooner, it just gives me a certain feel this time around, that is a very potent shortwave in the northern stream and the GFS is the more amplified member of the 18z crowd of models, I believe the HIRES models will come in stronger at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think this system blows up sooner, it just gives me a certain feel this time around, that is a very potent shortwave in the northern stream and the GFS is the more amplified member of the 18z crowd of models, I believe the HIRES models will come in stronger at 00z. I'm surprised you feel that way about a system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I'm surprised you feel that way about a system. This feels different than the other misses this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: This feels different than the other misses this winter. Why? It is a pretty weak sauce setup. There's some potential for it to develop quicker but it could easily just end up as staying somewhat flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: This feels different than the other misses this winter. Ya, kinda of like the Xmas Eve one last week...you were thinking the same with that one too...and it didn’t happen. This will most likely be like that as it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Why? It is a pretty weak sauce setup. There's some potential for it to develop quicker but it could easily just end up as staying somewhat flat. I noticed that during the previous flops according to my forecasts for bigger events than actuality, the SREFs mean guidance would perk up at 72 hours, and then slowly each run later forecast less and less for the area as we got closer to the event timeline, however, we are now within 42 hours of the event happening, and the guidance is perking upwards in snowfall amounts over the area, this should be a sign that the guidance believes in a bigger event as we get within a closer timeframe. The NAM guidance each new 00z or 12z runs showing a more amplified storm on the coast, which tells me as the new data comes in for the runs to start and initialize on, they get the new data and end up more amplified. Plus with a southern stream energy disturbance involved that breaks off the main parent vortex over TX gets involved, these systems end up phasing in more than modeled within the next 36 hours. Just something I find interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya, kinda of like the Xmas Eve one last week...you were thinking the same with that one too...and it didn’t happen. This will most likely be like that as it looks now. No this is different, I explain in the post above this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Why? It is a pretty weak sauce setup. There's some potential for it to develop quicker but it could easily just end up as staying somewhat flat. Looks ugly as hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: This feels different than the other misses this winter. Feeling your is always the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Nice bump up on the SREFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 0Z Nam digs that northern stream s/w a little further south this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: 0Z Nam digs that northern stream s/w a little further south this run. About the same as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: About the same as 12z Still weak sauce though, Not a lot of moisture available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: Still weak sauce though, Not a lot of moisture available. Nevermind that, what's the Kuchie say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, Hoth said: Nevermind that, what's the Kuchie say? Kuchie coo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 30 minutes ago, dryslot said: Still weak sauce though, Not a lot of moisture available. Nope but any snow is good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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