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Futility Thread - Winter 18/19


NorEastermass128
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36 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

We turn our sights for the next threat of >1" of snow toward 1/17 and 1/20.  This means most SNE sites will have gone 2+ months in the heart of winter in an average pattern for cold/snow without measurable.  Pretty remarkable.

I wouldn't call the pattern average for most of Dec and Jan....though it is definitely not horrific. Prob just a run of the mill below average pattern in the means. We should have scored a couple shovelable events in our climate but we haven't been able to buy one. Even last year we were squeezing in 4-6" events in January and February during somewhat cruddy patterns.

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1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Does futility end overnight Thursday into Friday?  Would put me at 64 days between measurable snowfalls.

For BOS, the road to futility doesn't end until they exceed 9.6" (or so) on the season.  It's looking likely BOS marches through these two threats with the road still open ahead.  

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Official 1/19 snow measurement for Boston (Logan): MM, i.e. missing. I find NWS does that when snow falls, and the melted equivalent is above 0.01", but it doesn't stick. At least they do that locally. On the five minute observations it looked like some of the precip came in as freezing drizzle and above freezing snow. Logan only had 0.13" liquid equivalent of whatever fell anyway.

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4 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Official 1/19 snow measurement for Boston (Logan): MM, i.e. missing. I find NWS does that when snow falls, and the melted equivalent is above 0.01", but it doesn't stick. At least they do that locally. On the five minute observations it looked like some of the precip came in as freezing drizzle and above freezing snow. Logan only had 0.13" liquid equivalent of whatever fell anyway.

How much in Albuquerque lol? You've been doing well this winter.

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Hate to say it but the tropical forcing has retreated to unfavorable locations and suddenly the pac wants to revert. I know some hate tracking the mjo and enso but tropical forcing really does drive the show. 

ETA: we can snow in February with a less than perfect pacific if the blocking holds. But if the pac is going to puke we need the Atlantic perfect. That ridge will kill us IF the pac goes unfavorable. It’s not a disaster look but it’s not the great look guidance was selling a week ago. 

Ma forum

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The good news is after the initial update had MM, Logan changed to report 0.5" yesterday, so presumably with the snow today Boston has topped an inch of snow since 10/1.

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How much in Albuquerque lol? You've been doing well this winter.

The city is 4900-6300 feet, so anywhere from 2-10". Officially 5.3". I had snow on the ground at my house, from only 6.5", for 11 days in a row starting on 12/27. I'm sure we'll get more eventually, traditionally we do very well in March (sometimes Feb) if there is no calendar month in an El Nino with around 7" by the end of January, we had 3.3" in Dec, and 2.0" in Jan to date where the records are kept. The snow in Jan was particularly impressive as it was around 19F all afternoon (-28Fish) , and we had only 0.06" officially, but we have much drier snow than you guys do. Every El Nino on record, except 1953-54 has had snow here has had snow after January, so its pretty likely we'll get more. My precipitation pattern is almost a dead on match for July-Dec in El Nino years with major hurricanes hitting the Gulf, so I'm incorporating those into my Spring Outlook, and they tend to favor very snowy Marches in the Rockies & Plains. I threw in a couple La Nina years too, since the +SOI in Dec needs to be respected for what it does to US temps in Feb/Mar.

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What is Fall River PYM, New Bedford current seasonal totals 

seems like the further SE one goes into SNE the bigger the ratter 

the mid range has fallen a part 

it got worse

use whatever semantics you want but it does not look better than average for this time of year for SNE. It looks below average pattern wise now , last week at This time it looked a bit better than average. We lost the good pacific look, raging zonal compresses flow is back w a split jet returning . Models will be back to being nearly useless for anything resembling two piece systems 

It shiat the bed again. W all the caveats, we can still score a hit

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On 1/21/2019 at 11:35 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What is Fall River PYM, New Bedford current seasonal totals 

seems like the further SE one goes into SNE the bigger the ratter 

the mid range has fallen a part 

it got worse

use whatever semantics you want but it does not look better than average for this time of year for SNE. It looks below average pattern wise now , last week at This time it looked a bit better than average. We lost the good pacific look, raging zonal compresses flow is back w a split jet returning . Models will be back to being nearly useless for anything resembling two piece systems 

It shiat the bed again. W all the caveats, we can still score a hit

Around 8” and looks to remain the same as he hit February.  No other way to polish this turd.  We have another 1-2 weeks of peak snowfall climb then we begin the progression into spring.

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10/1-1/26 snowfall in Boston (assuming none today). Additional snow 1/27-5/31: 2007 - 15.6", 1928 - 19.2", 1980 - 10.1", 1932 - 15.8", 1944 - 24.2", 1986 - 13.4", 1989 - 10.3", 1958 - 39.3", 1969 - 48.1", 1973 - 4.4". Average additional is 20 inches from 1/27 to 5/31, range is 4-40" for years with under six inches of total snow by 1/26.

1 2007-01-26 1.5 0
2 1928-01-26 1.6 1
3 2019-01-26 1.8 1
4 1980-01-26 2.4 1
5 1932-01-26 2.6 1
6 1944-01-26 3.5 0
7 1986-01-26 4.7 0
8 1989-01-26 5.2 0
9 1958-01-26 5.4 0
10 1969-01-26 5.7 0
11 1973-01-26 5.9 0
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