Futility Thread - Winter 18/19

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Define severe.  That’s me it’s way above normal snow. 

When there is nothing to discuss people feel the need to pound one another over the head with semantics. It was pretty specifically outlined what the expectations are.

No winter is severe wall to wall, so that argument is absurd. 

[tamarack]

43 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I do not consider a winter with well above snowfall and above normal temps to be severe.  A winter can be severe with average snowfall if the temp is well below average.  And some winters may have a severe period such as 14-15 but not be an overall severe winter.  

My more-than-a-bit subjective ratings for winter include grades for both temps and snowfall, but with the latter being given 2/3 of the weight.  Pack retention is important to folks around here, including me, so my purely subjective modifications of the grades can move the summation from, say, a C+ to a B- (or plain C) depending on SDDs - average season here is 1,750, so a total 500+ either side of that may trigger a change.  "Severe" would be winters above a plain B, and there have been 4 in 20 years:  2000-01, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2013-14. 

[Great Snow 1717]

16 minutes ago, tamarack said:

My more-than-a-bit subjective ratings for winter include grades for both temps and snowfall, but with the latter being given 2/3 of the weight.  Pack retention is important to folks around here, including me, so my purely subjective modifications of the grades can move the summation from, say, a C+ to a B- (or plain C) depending on SDDs - average season here is 1,750, so a total 500+ either side of that may trigger a change.  "Severe" would be winters above a plain B, and there have been 4 in 20 years:  2000-01, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2013-14. 

Seems like you are having a decent winter so far. Just basing that on the snowfall total.

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I do not consider a winter with well above snowfall and above normal temps to be severe.  A winter can be severe with average snowfall if the temp is well below average.  And some winters may have a severe period such as 14-15 but not be an overall severe winter.  

Regarding 2014-15, although December was garbage  the incredible cold and snow setting records in many locations skews it severe to me.  It’s all subjective.  Will’s listing of the 5 coldest winterms since 1960 with 60% being ninos is telling despite the small sample size.  One of the 3 was 2014-15 based in overall temperatures.   

[Great Snow 1717]

And how many winters since 1960  were warm during an El Nino?

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Seems like you are having a decent winter so far. Just basing that on the snowfall total.

"Decent" is a good way to describe it.  Snowfall is about 140% of my YTD average and both Nov/Dec were BN for temps.  Also, my SDDs through yesterday are 100+ ahead of any of the other 20 winters here, though that lead will evaporate quickly unless we get serious snow in the next 2 weeks.  Of course, Dec was disappointing here like everywhere else in the Northeast, 3rd lowest snowfall of 21 here and less than 1/3 of Nov's total.

Average snowfall by month (months with 30"+, my threshold for "big snow" month, in parentheses):

OCT      0.7"  (0)
NOV     4.9"   (0)
DEC    19.6"   (6)
JAN     19.2"   (1)
FEB     23.1"   (8)
MAR    17.8"   (4)
APR      5.0"   (1)
TOT    90.3"   (20)

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

And how many winters since 1960  were warm during an El Nino?

72-73, 82-83, 91-92, 94-95, 97-98, 06-07, and 15-16. 4 of them were super ninos so there's no expectation there. 91-92 was peak pinatubo influence causing a monster AO+. 94-95 and 06-07 were legit dogcrap. 

But we've had more cold El Niño's than warm since 1960. If you have no other information other than it was an El Niño that wasn't a super Niño, you'd def forecast cold/snowy for SNE. We'll see if we end up colder than normal in this one...still up in the air. 

[NorEastermass128]

Lots of rainers on the 18z GFS...just saying. 

[Ginx snewx]

No winter is severe belly to belly unless you live on a mountain or near the Arctic circle. Severe pieces, like the coldest 12 day stretch in history last Dec to Jan ending in a blizzard , the 1934 Feb, the 15 incredible snow and cold 6 weeks, the 02 03 continuous snow cover from late Dec to April.  The Jan 94 and 04 brutal assaults. Severity is not long lasting in time but long lasting in memory 

[ice1972]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

No winter is severe belly to belly unless you live on a mountain or near the Arctic circle. Severe pieces, like the coldest 12 day stretch in history last Dec to Jan ending in a blizzard , the 1934 Feb, the 15 incredible snow and cold 6 weeks, the 02 03 continuous snow cover from late Dec to April.  The Jan 94 and 04 brutal assaults. Severity is not long lasting in time but long lasting in memory 

Solid attempt at a calming voice.....I should just move back to Lake Tahoe......all my issues would be taken care of......handily 

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Lots of rainers on the 18z GFS...just saying. 

You’re actually in a good spot d6 event.

[Great Snow 1717]

15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

When there is nothing to discuss people feel the need to pound one another over the head with semantics. It was pretty specifically outlined what the expectations are.

No winter is severe wall to wall, so that argument is absurd. 

I don't  think I or anyone else was pounding one another over the head with semantics.  It was just a discussion. 

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

When there is nothing to discuss people feel the need to pound one another over the head with semantics. It was pretty specifically outlined what the expectations are.

No winter is severe wall to wall, so that argument is absurd. 

Yeah I didn't see anyone predicting 1960-61 or 1995-96 around here either lol.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

No winter is severe belly to belly unless you live on a mountain or near the Arctic circle. Severe pieces, like the coldest 12 day stretch in history last Dec to Jan ending in a blizzard , the 1934 Feb, the 15 incredible snow and cold 6 weeks, the 02 03 continuous snow cover from late Dec to April.  The Jan 94 and 04 brutal assaults. Severity is not long lasting in time but long lasting in memory 

It depends on how you define severe.

For me, I dont care about the thaws in between or even the total seasonal snowfall for that matter, for me severe is having at least one MECS (8"+ snowstorm) every month from December to February.  A wall to wall snow season would be having at least one snow event of 4" or larger every month from November through April and we had both in 1995-96.  2002-03 comes in second for that, another long duration winter and the only el nino winter in my area that I would classify as such.

2010-11 was another tremendous snow season here for snowcover duration and combo of heavy snow and cold, even though it only lasted for 7 weeks or so.  I guess I prefer weak la ninas over el ninos when it comes to what I define as a severe winter.

You could also define severity of winter by the longest duration of snowcover which would be an index that would define both snow and cold and for that two winters really stand out- 1947-48 and 2010-11.

 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, weathafella said:

Regarding 2014-15, although December was garbage  the incredible cold and snow setting records in many locations skews it severe to me.  It’s all subjective.  Will’s listing of the 5 coldest winterms since 1960 with 60% being ninos is telling despite the small sample size.  One of the 3 was 2014-15 based in overall temperatures.   

Weak la ninas seem to be our overall best winters for snow and cold- like 1995-96 and 2010-11.

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

72-73, 82-83, 91-92, 94-95, 97-98, 06-07, and 15-16. 4 of them were super ninos so there's no expectation there. 91-92 was peak pinatubo influence causing a monster AO+. 94-95 and 06-07 were legit dogcrap. 

But we've had more cold El Niño's than warm since 1960. If you have no other information other than it was an El Niño that wasn't a super Niño, you'd def forecast cold/snowy for SNE. We'll see if we end up colder than normal in this one...still up in the air. 

Will, was it also responsible for the very wet and cool summer of 1992 we had as well as the cold and snowy/icy 1993-94 winter?

Also, do you think the Krakatoa eruption in Indonesia will impact our upcoming summer or next winter?

 

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know a good deal of my posts have an arrogant tone, but I won't try to spin anything...if I'm wrong, I'll admit it and just try to figure why.

I will say that after going back over things, My Dec call def. was not perfect...aside from missing out on the early month snow through some misfortune, I did miss the +EPO that was prevalent. I was correct RE the grinch event/monthly NAO behavior, and that the PNA was not strong, but expected pretty much wall to wall EPO this season, so Scott was right when he said that no one nailed that. I said that I did, but I didn't. I think it relates back to what Tom said RE the short term feedback from the SSW. I did not think that we would see a technical SSW, but we are.....so there was some deviation from the expectation. The blocking that will materialize was expected, nonetheless.

In the end my monthly departure for Dec were good, so missing the SSW and Pac jet interlude is largely immaterial to the forecast seasonal evolution. I did nail the Dec monthly evolution from a sensible standpoint, as well as the NAO. I'll post about the Dec verification this week.

Ray you did better than most and long before winter even started we were talking about anything falling before Jan 20 being gravy.  The November storm and early season cold skewed some people's expectations.

 

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Spent some time checking now data. Days of the year with most 10 inch plus snows. Jan 20th and Feb 5th. Big surprise was how many Dec 26ths show up for the 6 plus day. Best climo period for big snows is fron Jan 15th to March 20th.

Best days yet to come

Dec 26 is a big day for historic snowstorms here also.  It's been either late December or the second and third week of February, but in the last few years we have been piling on big snows in the latter part of January also.

 

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Boston's 5 coldest winters since 1960 were:

1976-1977 27.6 

1970-1971 27.7

2014-2015 27.8

2002-2003 27.8

1993-1994 27.8

 

Of those 5, 3 were El Niños, 1 was La Niña and 1 was neutral. 

Will, could you do this for NYC also, but if you could, one from 1960- and one over NYC's entire climate record to bring in really severely cold winters like 1917-18 and 1933-34? I think you'll find that there's much more variance there.  Also another way to define severe winter is how many days snowcover existed and for that, two winters are on top, 1947-48 and 2010-11.

Personally (as per my previous post) I define a severe wall to wall winter as one where there is at least one event of 4"+ from November through April (1995-96) regardless of the thaws in between as well as at least one MECS (8"+) event in each of the DJF winter months.  1995-96 fits that description and 2002-03 comes close.

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Will, was it also responsible for the very wet and cool summer of 1992 we had as well as the cold and snowy/icy 1993-94 winter?

Also, do you think the Krakatoa eruption in Indonesia will impact our upcoming summer or next winter?

 

Yes it was def responsible for the summer of '92. That's actually where the climate impacts of volcanic eruptions are felt the most over North America. It's the exceptionally cool summers. It prob played a role for sure in he +AO winters too even though the baseline was colder due to the eruption. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

It depends on how you define severe.

For me, I dont care about the thaws in between or even the total seasonal snowfall for that matter, for me severe is having at least one MECS (8"+ snowstorm) every month from December to February.  A wall to wall snow season would be having at least one snow event of 4" or larger every month from November through April and we had both in 1995-96.  2002-03 comes in second for that, another long duration winter and the only el nino winter in my area that I would classify as such.

2010-11 was another tremendous snow season here for snowcover duration and combo of heavy snow and cold, even though it only lasted for 7 weeks or so.  I guess I prefer weak la ninas over el ninos when it comes to what I define as a severe winter.

You could also define severity of winter by the longest duration of snowcover which would be an index that would define both snow and cold and for that two winters really stand out- 1947-48 and 2010-11.

 

http://www.wermenh.com/sdd/index.html

[weathafella]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It depends on how you define severe.

For me, I dont care about the thaws in between or even the total seasonal snowfall for that matter, for me severe is having at least one MECS (8"+ snowstorm) every month from December to February.  A wall to wall snow season would be having at least one snow event of 4" or larger every month from November through April and we had both in 1995-96.  2002-03 comes in second for that, another long duration winter and the only el nino winter in my area that I would classify as such.

2010-11 was another tremendous snow season here for snowcover duration and combo of heavy snow and cold, even though it only lasted for 7 weeks or so.  I guess I prefer weak la ninas over el ninos when it comes to what I define as a severe winter.

You could also define severity of winter by the longest duration of snowcover which would be an index that would define both snow and cold and for that two winters really stand out- 1947-48 and 2010-11.

 

Your definition of severe is 1960-61 to a t!  You’d have liked it.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

On ‎1‎/‎2‎/‎2019 at 8:00 PM, Ginx snewx said:

No winter is severe belly to belly unless you live on a mountain or near the Arctic circle. Severe pieces, like the coldest 12 day stretch in history last Dec to Jan ending in a blizzard , the 1934 Feb, the 15 incredible snow and cold 6 weeks, the 02 03 continuous snow cover from late Dec to April.  The Jan 94 and 04 brutal assaults. Severity is not long lasting in time but long lasting in memory 

1993-94 remains the most incredible winter of my life (born in 1980), along with 2013-2014, and the cold stretch last New Years.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

On ‎1‎/‎2‎/‎2019 at 12:30 PM, weathafella said:

Define severe.  That’s me it’s way above normal snow. 

For me, it has to be a combination of above normal snow and bitter cold. 1993-94 was like that in Toronto, along with 2013-2014.

 

1970-71 in Ottawa and Montreal would also fit the bill.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

For me, it has to be a combination of above normal snow and bitter cold. 1993-94 was like that in Toronto, along with 2013-2014.

 

1970-71 in Ottawa and Montreal would also fit the bill.

'70-'71 was a very harsh winter in SNE too...esp for interior. It's the closest I'd ever call a winter wire to wire here. ORH had double digit snowpack from mid December to mid March save for just a few days...and those few days were never lower than 6 inches. They also failed to hit 50F for over 3 months....no true torches.

 

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

1993-94 remains the most incredible winter of my life (born in 1980), along with 2013-2014, and the cold stretch last New Years.

But even that winter didn’t get rolling until a few days after Christmas.   That was fabulous for the pike region...number 3 of all time snow wise and bitter cold.

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, weathafella said:

Your definition of severe is 1960-61 to a t!  You’d have liked it.

Yesss Jer and I think 1993-94 too, if all the events had been all snow down here lol.  Those were two very long very cold and very stormy winters!

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, weathafella said:

But even that winter didn’t get rolling until a few days after Christmas.   That was fabulous for the pike region...number 3 of all time snow wise and bitter cold.

Somewhere around Dec 20-26 seems to be around the time you want the snow season to get going to make the winter season long and snowy.  2014-15 is the major exception to this as it was so severe for both snow and cold that even though only half of winter was like that, it certainly felt like a lot more than that.

I wonder how much more severe that winter would have been if it could have been translated to a month earlier, that is if the Jan 20 HECS had happened on Dec 20 instead and move everything else up by a month?

 

[tamarack]

15 hours ago, weathafella said:

Your definition of severe is 1960-61 to a t!  You’d have liked it.

Meh winter this far north, as the 3 MA/SNE blockbusters brought only 4", 1.3", and zero, total snow season 80% of average.  Of course, I lived in NNJ at the time, where it was clearly the best of my 22 NNJ winters (wx memory starts with 1950 Apps gale, so ignoring anything older), with only 66-67 even being close - had similar total snowfall, but with only one 10"+ and comparatively miniscule snowpack.  Lots of good memories from 60-61:  Learning to field-dress a deer (my dad's) on 12/12 in 18" fresh powder, helping push a lady's car up a hill in -SN after school on 1/19 and wondering why my hands got so cold (found out temp was 9 - thought that was "too cold to snow") then watching the JFK inauguration after we cleared 20" from the driveway, and struggling with 2 feet (at least, hard to tell in 40-50 mph gusts) on 2/4 then trying to wade thru the 40-50" pack the next day - got about 100 yards and admitted defeat.

[CoastalWx]

22 hours ago, weathafella said:

But even that winter didn’t get rolling until a few days after Christmas.   That was fabulous for the pike region...number 3 of all time snow wise and bitter cold.

One of the best overachievers ever to kick it off.