Great Snow 1717 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: They aren't idiots...but they factored it in incorrectly. Just like they did the la nina last season...I explained why their thoughts were flawed in November, and reiterated why they were in March. I'll do it again this season. And you correctly factored in the El Nino????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 This winter sort of reminds me of the 1968/1969 Winter. In other words dead in both December and January, then February all of a sudden 2 coastal bombs that were generally 20"-30"+ for the heart of our viewing area and then the first half of March. I guess the moral of the story is anything is possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: And you correctly factored in the El Nino????? I'll answer this in a month. It will be clearer then. I'm not derailing the futility thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll answer this in a month. It will be clearer then. I'm not doing the pissing contest. Well then. perhaps you should wait a month to see if the NCEP factored in the El Nino correctly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll answer this in a month. It will be clearer then. I'm not derailing the futility thread. Happy New Year Ray. Don't worry, I'm not ready to throw in the towel yet. I do actually understand the pattern that is in the back of a lot of peoples minds and know what's going on. I really want to see it work out for you and the rest of the snow weenies here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, Greg said: Happy New Year Ray. Don't worry, I'm not ready to throw in the towel yet. I do actually understand the pattern that is in the back of a lot of peoples minds and know what's going on. I really want to see it work out for you and the rest of the snow weenies here. Happy New Year, bro.....and Great Snow 1717..same to you. We'll see what happens. How much did you get in Wilmington, Greg? .5" in Methuen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geo1 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Happy New Year, bro.....and Great Snow 1717..same to you. We'll see what happens. How much did you get in Wilmington, Greg? .5" in Methuen... Probably around the same just got home from work and despite the rain the lawn is coated and the drive way has a good coating of slush. Wasn’t expecting that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Happy New Years guys, hope that confetti turns to snow as January evolves ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 8 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: And you correctly factored in the El Nino????? We don’t know the answers yet obviously but to automatically paint El Niño warm is just wrong. Some our most severe winters in the past 70 years being were during ninos, most with warm periods like we’ve experienced. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 With this being the futility thread, I'm taking the under across the board. Persistence, ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Futility is now at 47 days. My last accumulating snow was 11/15/18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 56 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Futility is now at 47 days. My last accumulating snow was 11/15/18. #yore indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Futility is now at 47 days. My last accumulating snow was 11/15/18. I’m pulling for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 This is it guys.....this is the complete ratter we’ve been waiting for....garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Wire to wire ratter..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 12 minutes ago, ice1972 said: Wire to wire ratter..... Still drinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Still drinking? Prob pounded a few to get rid of the hangover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 4 hours ago, weathafella said: We don’t know the answers yet obviously but to automatically paint El Niño warm is just wrong. Some our most severe winters in the past 70 years being were during ninos, most with warm periods like we’ve experienced. CPC's JFM outlook isn't warm. It looks okay, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Prob pounded a few to get rid of the hangover. Tough start to the New Year, usually those are 3 am posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’m pulling for you Come late January and if I sit where I am at currently, I will too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 12 hours ago, dryslot said: Futility? Seriously? on 01/01?? Yeah, I mean reality is that we do the bulk of the accumulation between 12/15 and 3/15. 12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: They aren't idiots...but they factored it in incorrectly. Just like they did the la nina last season...I explained why their thoughts were flawed in November, and reiterated why they were in March. I'll do it again this season. And on the NCEP side of things, all they do is forecast temps and precip for the season. So you can easily have temps average above normal, yet your above normal snowfall works out as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Futility is now at 47 days. My last accumulating snow was 11/15/18. My son thinks winter runs from Halloween to Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Stop....I mean ya I had some drinks last night but these posts were this morning.....at least theres this great thread for it so I don't get into weenie trouble......lol You have to admit this is just a terrible start.......I don't count that November thing.... 39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Still drinking? 38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Prob pounded a few to get rid of the hangover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: My son thinks winter runs from Halloween to Thanksgiving. Winter left us last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: My son thinks winter runs from Halloween to Thanksgiving. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 24 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, I mean reality is that we do the bulk of the accumulation between 12/15 and 3/15. And on the NCEP side of things, all they do is forecast temps and precip for the season. So you can easily have temps average above normal, yet your above normal snowfall works out as well. I'm pretty sure they missed the huge ending, though. Also begs the question...how do we know from a temp and precip forecast that they have forecaste "wall to wall pacific jet"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 17 minutes ago, ice1972 said: Stop....I mean ya I had some drinks last night but these posts were this morning.....at least theres this great thread for it so I don't get into weenie trouble......lol You have to admit this is just a terrible start.......I don't count that November thing.... Great start, terrible last 6 weeks. Great second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Great start, terrible last 6 weeks. Great second half. You hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm pretty sure they missed the huge ending. Last year? They did have above normal for all of New England, greatest chances towards CAR. CAR was +4.2, CON +0.4, and ORH -1.2 so I wouldn't call that a wild bust. Precip was above normal for all except The County in ME. That was a little more scattershot, with ORH up, CON down, and CAR up. It also depends on lead time, those were the 1 month lead forecasts. But even the longer lead times (3 month) ended up verifying as slightly above normal for spring. Regardless, they don't forecast snow and even inferring snow from the combination of temps and precip can be dangerous. But we know that was well above normal for the end of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Last year? They did have above normal for all of New England, greatest chances towards CAR. CAR was +4.2, CON +0.4, and ORH -1.2 so I wouldn't call that a wild bust. Precip was above normal for all except The County in ME. That was a little more scattershot, with ORH up, CON down, and CAR up. It also depends on lead time, those were the 1 month lead forecasts. But even the longer lead times (3 month) ended up verifying as slightly above normal for spring. Regardless, they don't forecast snow and even inferring snow from the combination of temps and precip can be dangerous. But we know that was well above normal for the end of winter. I think the issue is that for forecasting purposes, probability forecasting just isn't that useful. It doesn't tell you a great deal about the evolution of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now