Futility Thread - Winter 18/19

[CoastalWx]

The whole west is virtually above avg in snow right now. 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Yeah, bring on Morch. The toxic cocktail of high expectations going into the season, teases of beautiful patterns in the weeklies that kept failing, bad timing, Scooter Streaks effing up the December and January opportunities in favor of the MA, mixed bag events, way below average snow despite greater than average precip and favorable temp regimes, and the sheer stability of this garbage all winter, makes this one of the worst in my life. I was too young to remember the 80s and early 90s up until March '93, so I'll say it's the worst in recent memory. This one even beats '11-'12, which at least featured one exotic system and a historic heatwave. '15-'16 was a stinker too, but frankly I was still satiated by the glory of the previous season. It is what it is. I'm over it. We regroup and look forward to warmer weather, beaches, babes and barbecues.

Here in Easton and Fairfield county we reached average for 15 16.

Agreed on worst winter.

91 92 was actually worse, but 2 snowstorms (1 heavy and one moderate) in mid March saved that winter. In fact March saved a lot of winters late 80s early 90s.

[SnowBrosForever]

Our 3rd winter in Maine since retiring, but, yeah, what a lack of serious snow. We lived in Arlington, VA and I was an avid poster on Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang pages. A rabid group of us LIVED for even a dusting of the white stuff, and we charted "death bands" as they passed overhead. Living on an island marginalizes snow accumulation, but everyone here has noted the ice buildup this year. Meanwhile, a beautiful, non-accumulating snowfall is in progress until it turns to rain in an hour or two. Wes Junker would call it conversational snow.  I call it a cruel tease. Wind is starting to pick up - 12 mph in the last hour. 34/31

[MJO812]

9 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Worst winter ever for me when you take into account slightly AN temps (N-J), AN precip, preseason forecasts, November tease, all snow to rain systems, and those atrocious weeklies. 

2001-2002 was worse

This is number 2 for me if we dont get any more snow

[Dan76]

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

2001-2002 was worse

This is number 2 for me if we dont get any more snow

Well I do snow plowing and this is the first in 15 that I didn't put the plow on,

[CoastalWx]

This winter isn’t a F in my opinion. 11-12 was a F. I’ve had 3 separate 3-5”+ events. Sure they weren’t big, but at least separated  enough. Still some time to go as well. 

[CoastalWx]

And for those who are bitching now, hope this isn’t a trend because you are going to be in a +BITCH cycle for the next 10+ years if this is decadal.

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And for those who are bitching now, hope this isn’t a trend because you are going to be in a +BITCH cycle for the next 10+ years if this is decadal.

Nope going to pretend this year is 94/95. And next year we get a 95/96 winter

[8611Blizz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

And for those who are bitching now, hope this isn’t a trend because you are going to be in a +BITCH cycle for the next 10+ years if this is decadal.

I've been saying that for years. If the 80"s walk through that door for the next 10 years this place will be a shit show like no one can imagine. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 8611Blizz said:

I've been saying that for years. If the 80"s walk through that door for the next 10 years this place will be a shit show like no one can imagine. 

Just delete your account because it will be unreadable. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Just delete your account because it will be unreadable. 

The entitlement for 125-140% winters was due to get some smackdown. We've been warning about it for years though. 

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The entitlement for 125-140% winters was due to get some smackdown. We've been warning about it for years though. 

Yeah obviously we have no idea, but based on a good sample size of climo, our recent averages are unsustainable. 

[Hazey]

Just out of curiosity if you took the last 10 winters for say Boston, including this one if it ends as is, averaged them out, you’d still be at or above seasonal no?

 

[ORH_wxman]

18 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Just out of curiosity if you took the last 10 winters for say Boston, including this one if it ends as is, averaged them out, you’d still be at or above seasonal no?

 

Yes. If BOS didn't get another flake this winter, the average for their last 10 including this one would be about 47". That would be above the long term mean of around 43-44". 

[Dan76]

If it wasn't for the bad years there would be no good ones,some youngsters are going to get schooled if this is the trend.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

This winter isn’t a F in my opinion. 11-12 was a F. I’ve had 3 separate 3-5”+ events. Sure they weren’t big, but at least separated  enough. Still some time to go as well. 

So 15 rainers and 15” of snow is not an F. 

Doesn’t say much for the average winter .

 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

If it wasn't for the bad years there would be no good ones,some youngsters are going to get schooled if this is the trend.

They could use a little reality check, lol. 

They don't remember the lean 80s and early 1990s. Some truly deplorable winters in there. 

A few solid ratters will get their expectations recalibrated. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

So 15 rainers and 15” of snow is not an F. 

Doesn’t say much for the average winter .

 

I’ve had over 22” so far. In 11-12 I couldn’t get one storm above 5”. And there was only 1 storm. That is truly a F.

[CT Valley Snowman]

The grading of this winter would have a gradient similar to the gradient that has set up during these storms.  I could see how the F grade across the more Southern and Eastern portions of the region would be warranted   Being at 28" here for the season with some more enroute I'd be more inclined to go with a D grade thus far here near the Connecticut /Mass border. As lousy as it's been here we've definitely held our pack here a little bit better than areas near/south of 84 and there has been a couple of systems where Enfield has been on the colder side of the gradient but even in those systems it's still a lot of nickels and dimes overall  and a pretty cruel distribution of precipitation vs snowfall given the temperatures. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ve had over 22” so far. In 11-12 I couldn’t get one storm above 5”. And there was only 1 storm. That is truly a F.

I didn’t realize you had 22”

its just all the fukkin non stop cold rain and storm track cuts over and over and over 

did i mention +PNA and EPO ridges dissapear and shift back west (respectively) as the medium range becomes short range 

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, Snow88 said:

2001-2002 was worse

This is number 2 for me if we dont get any more snow

I believe that one was also forecast to be a good winter. We did manage to get one decent event during met winter.

2011/2012 is probably third worst because we knew ahead of time that it would be garbage. Plus it was at least warm and pleasant most of the time unlike this season which had legit cold periods. 

You know it's been a bad winter when DC had more snow than you or Boston (minus 09/10 of course). 

[weathafella]

30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I believe that one was also forecast to be a good winter. We did manage to get one decent event during met winter.

2011/2012 is probably third worst because we knew ahead of time that it would be garbage. Plus it was at least warm and pleasant most of the time unlike this season which had legit cold periods. 

You know it's been a bad winter when DC had more snow than you or Boston (minus 09/10 of course). 

BOS will probably end up higher vs DCA this year.

[raindancewx]

It is interesting looking at the flukiness of the winter specific to Boston. This is the raw blend of my analogs for East Coast sites for snow 10/1-2/23. I probably did err in how I drew the snowfall anomalies, but I'd say the blend itself is higher than a C nationally, but I had to guess on how to draw it, I can't manually look up 100s of snow totals or automatically combine the years like with temperatures. The raw blend is actually pretty strong for Virginia and Maine too from my quick spot checks, which someone mentioned as misses.

Portland - 

1953 - 36.7
1976 - 67.5
1986 - 60.7
1994 - 62.6
1994 - 62.6
2006 - 25.7
Blend: 52.6 inches

Observed: 50.1 inches

Boston -

1953 - 27.4
1976 - 47.3
1986 - 34.9
1994 - 12.9
1994 - 12.9
2006 - 4.8
Blend: 23.4

Observed: 10.5 inches

NYC - 

1953 - 15.4
1976 - 23.9
1986 - 21.2
1994 - 11.3
1994 - 11.3
2006 - 4.6
Blend: 14.6
Observed: 10.0

Philly - 

1953 - 22.3
1976 - 18.7
1986 - 25.7
1994 - 9.6
1994 - 9.6
2006 - 7.2
Blend: 15.5
Observed: 13.1

DC - 

1953 - 18.0
1976 - 11.1
1986 - 31.1
1994 - 9.7
1994 - 9.7
2006 - 4.3
Blend - 14.0
Observed - 16.6

Richmond - 

1953 - 14.8
1976 - 13.8
1986 - 21.1
1994 - 3.1
1994 - 3.1
2006 - 0.3
Blend: 9.3
Observed: 13.1

Roanoke - 

1953 - 10.7
1976 - 19.2
1986 - 39.5
1994 - 10.5
1994 - 10.5
2006 - 3.4
Blend: 15.6
Observed: 19.5

[40/70 Benchmark]

On February 24, 2019 at 11:07 PM, raindancewx said:

It is interesting looking at the flukiness of the winter specific to Boston. This is the raw blend of my analogs for East Coast sites for snow 10/1-2/23. I probably did err in how I drew the snowfall anomalies, but I'd say the blend itself is higher than a C nationally, but I had to guess on how to draw it, I can't manually look up 100s of snow totals or automatically combine the years like with temperatures. The raw blend is actually pretty strong for Virginia and Maine too from my quick spot checks, which someone mentioned as misses.

Portland - 

1953 - 36.7
1976 - 67.5
1986 - 60.7
1994 - 62.6
1994 - 62.6
2006 - 25.7
Blend: 52.6 inches

Observed: 50.1 inches

Boston -

1953 - 27.4
1976 - 47.3
1986 - 34.9
1994 - 12.9
1994 - 12.9
2006 - 4.8
Blend: 23.4

Observed: 10.5 inches

NYC - 

1953 - 15.4
1976 - 23.9
1986 - 21.2
1994 - 11.3
1994 - 11.3
2006 - 4.6
Blend: 14.6
Observed: 10.0

Philly - 

1953 - 22.3
1976 - 18.7
1986 - 25.7
1994 - 9.6
1994 - 9.6
2006 - 7.2
Blend: 15.5
Observed: 13.1

DC - 

1953 - 18.0
1976 - 11.1
1986 - 31.1
1994 - 9.7
1994 - 9.7
2006 - 4.3
Blend - 14.0
Observed - 16.6

Richmond - 

1953 - 14.8
1976 - 13.8
1986 - 21.1
1994 - 3.1
1994 - 3.1
2006 - 0.3
Blend: 9.3
Observed: 13.1

Roanoke - 

1953 - 10.7
1976 - 19.2
1986 - 39.5
1994 - 10.5
1994 - 10.5
2006 - 3.4
Blend: 15.6
Observed: 19.5

1986 and 1976 are deceiving, though around this area....much bigger season just inland from Boston in 1986, and just north in 1976....I mean, the northern suburbs had nearly 100" in '76-'77.

[weathafella]

On 2/25/2019 at 11:27 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1986 and 1976 are deceiving, though around this area....much bigger season just inland from Boston in 1986, and just north in 1976....I mean, the northern suburbs had nearly 100" in '76-'77.

His numbers were season to date so the total could be a bid deceiving depending on later than 2/24 totals.

[tamarack]

4 hours ago, weathafella said:

His numbers were season to date so the total could be a bid deceiving depending on later than 2/24 totals.

And some don't jive with those I've downloaded.  Most egregious are those for BOS/NYC for 2006, 4.8" and 4.6" respectively while both were closer to 40".  BOS had 8.6" on 12/9 and 17.5" in the Feb dump, while the latter dropped over 26" in NYC.  I also checked those years' met winter temps for PWM, and they're all over the board.  Only 1986 was within 3° of the PWM average, with 53 and 06 way above (10th and 12th mildest of 99) and 76/94 way below (2nd and 11th coldest.)  Seems odd to this non-met that such disparate temp regimes would all fit in one analog set.

[raindancewx]

I used Central Park for NYC and Philly area on this site for checking. There are different numbers sometimes on there than on the local NWS now data sites, but its a nice centralized data base and it seems mostly accurate. http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

Snow is very localized, but when I drew my map, the idea was that the immediate coastal cities would do much worse for snow than the interior areas, including the suburbs of NYC, DC, Philly, Boston, etc. Some of the analogs had Maine doing well as it has, same for Virginia. We have the same thing here for suburbs, I'm sure I've had 13-15" snow, but the airport is at 9.5" to date.

My analogs attempt to re-create global ocean/solar conditions in blends where everything blended together matches existing or anticipated initial conditions on all the meaningful variables. I'm not looking for individual years that are kind of close on some things and off as a blend, I want a blend that matches on the AMO, PDO, solar, ENSO, Modoki, ENSO prior, and observed weather - and that was why some of the years individually are very different, while the blend is fairly strong overall. I incorporate observed weather as a variable because it is a proxy for pre-1975 MJO conditions if you use the BOM archives and the MJO composites. So the blend of my years gave a 27.4C El Nino, as an example. I have statistical methods for predicting PDO phases and the Modoki structure of an El Nino, they're not perfect, but when I get the inputs right, the blends really do hold for a long time.

1953-54: 27.00
1976-77: 27.18
1986-87: 27.76
1994-95: 27.64
1994-95: 27.64
2006-07: 27.30
Blend: 27.42
Those years as a blend had low solar (around 20 sunspots for July-Jun), near neutral AMO / near neutral PDO conditions too. Fairly basin wide El Nino too. The warmth east of Japan is kind of there like this year in 1994-95, as was the TNH issue with the winter. The year/year change in Nino 3.4 is also pretty positive in those years like this one which favored SW cold.

Nino 3.4 will probably finish around 27.3C for DJF.  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

This is what the site has for Central Park/NYC for 2006-07 snow - 6.4" through 2/26

NYC (Central Park) through 2/26.

1953-1954 - 15.4

1976-1977 - 23.9

1986-1987 - 21.2

1994-1995 - 11.8

1994-1995 - 11.8

2006-2007 - 6.4

Blend: 15.1"

Observed: 10.0"

 

[tamarack]

That explains the difference.  I took the 1953 in your earlier post to mean winter of 52-53, not 53-54.  What a difference a year makes!  PWM temps are a bit more consistent for those "revised" DJFs, except for 76-77 which was 6° BN.  86-87 was 0.2° AN and the others were all between 2.1 and 2.3 AN.

[raindancewx]

Yes. I thought with the MJO and ENSO similarities in Fall, 1976-77 would briefly appear with incredible cold shots in the Midwest and East, and it was a convenient way to balance out 1994-95 doubled. My forecast will end up pretty decent for DJF even though I got February pretty wrong, since no on El Nino (my definition being >27.0C for an extended period centered on DJF in Nino 3.4) had that damned +9 SOI in December back to at least 1930, and there are no cold Februarys in the South with the SOI that high in December.

Albuquerque finished with above normal precipitation and a high of 48.1F, 6th or 7th coldest in 30 years. Will be curious to see if we get our first wet March in the southern 2/3 of AZ/NM since 2007. Looks promising to me.

Keep your eyes on that system coming through here around 3/3 - you had a 15 point SOI drop in late February. Even the Superstorm of 1993 had only a 25 point drop ahead of it in early March. 

[raindancewx]

Boston is up to 16.6 inches through March 3rd. Boston, NYC and Philly all reported low snow ratios for the 3/3 snows they received with much of the snow falling above freezing.