raindancewx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 On 2/1/2019 at 7:49 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Are you comparing December 2018 to a 1994/2006 December composite? Your outlook has been good, but how was 12/18 similar to 12/94 and 12/06...aside from from dearth of snowfall in SNE? Unless I'm misunderstanding you. They were pretty dissimilar. If you look at the CPC analogs they use for the 6-10 and 8-14, they were using Dec 2006 and Dec 1994 throughout the second half of December 2018. That's one of the ways I check to see if I'm off my rocker. We had pretty extreme cold and snow here in late December too, and then January was fairly cold. I had like 6-7 inches of snow at my house from 0.3" or so liquid, since it kept snowing with temperatures around 20F. In the afternoon. We average a high of 46F even at our coldest. When I started to do my Spring Outlook in late December, I had a cold East as the idea for Spring 2019, but with the ESRL site back I can see what the blend looks like now, not as cold as I thought. Given that NYC and Philly are both around 33% below normal for snow and Maine has been rocking and rolling, I think you have to assume Boston trends up toward their level by the end of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 47 minutes ago, raindancewx said: If you look at the CPC analogs they use for the 6-10 and 8-14, they were using Dec 2006 and Dec 1994 throughout the second half of December 2018. That's one of the ways I check to see if I'm off my rocker. We had pretty extreme cold and snow here in late December too, and then January was fairly cold. I had like 6-7 inches of snow at my house from 0.3" or so liquid, since it kept snowing with temperatures around 20F. In the afternoon. We average a high of 46F even at our coldest. When I started to do my Spring Outlook in late December, I had a cold East as the idea for Spring 2019, but with the ESRL site back I can see what the blend looks like now, not as cold as I thought. Given that NYC and Philly are both around 33% below normal for snow and Maine has been rocking and rolling, I think you have to assume Boston trends up toward their level by the end of the season. Okay, you were just referring to the emergence of the more active PAC jet with the inclusion of 1994 and 2006 as analogs? My fault...I misunderstood, then. Our methodologies may actually have more in common than I had thought...that is how I use analogs. Not necessarily because I expect the whole season, or even just a month to progress in that precise manner, but because I see certain elements of value in them. This is supported by the fact that you didn't have an insanely warm December. Well done, so far....commendable effort. My apologies for being so dismissive of some of your thoughts. I agree that it should get at least somewhat better moving forward out here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 4, 2019 Author Share Posted February 4, 2019 Enjoy the 50s to near 60 today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said: Enjoy the 50s to near 60 today and tomorrow. Gorgeous couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 6, 2019 Author Share Posted February 6, 2019 2/6 update BOS stuck at 2.3” Futility within reach. Unlikely though IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 26 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: 2/6 update BOS stuck at 2.3” Futility within reach. Unlikely though IMO. Wow! I thought this winter sucked here.... Your total is like an Atlanta annual total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said: 2/6 update BOS stuck at 2.3” Futility within reach. Unlikely though IMO. I'll never let go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Gonna go into mid February with less then 10” for just about everywhere in SE MA, CC, RI, S CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Gonna go into mid February with less then 10” for just about everywhere in SE MA, CC, RI, S CT. All you gotta do is increase that to 18” and you can capture all of SNE and into CNE....what a garbage winter..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Those November events don't even count towards our totals IMO. It's like counting rain in April as part of your total summer rain total. Bogus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Whineminster said: Those November events don't even count towards our totals IMO. It's like counting rain in April as part of your total summer rain total. Bogus. Then it's 2.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Who counts summer rain totals? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 13 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Gonna go into mid February with less then 10” for just about everywhere in SE MA, CC, RI, S CT. try less than 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 My total in Durham, NC for this season is 7 inches (from a single event in December). This is just incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 6 hours ago, Whineminster said: Those November events don't even count towards our totals IMO. It's like counting rain in April as part of your total summer rain total. Bogus. Faux-vember? It was half of my seasonal total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 14 hours ago, ice1972 said: All you gotta do is increase that to 18” and you can capture all of SNE and into CNE....what a garbage winter..... I'm close to 18, I think I'm around 14-16, in southeast PA. Dont worry, mostly everything has gone to our south as well. We've gotten 1 or 2 inches about 5 times after the November event. DC has more snow than Philly by 6+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 7 hours ago, Whineminster said: Those November events don't even count towards our totals IMO. It's like counting rain in April as part of your total summer rain total. Bogus. It's not like they were fake snowfalls. They did occur. I'd agree if you're talking about met winter but they do count towards the seasonal snowfall (Jul 1 to June 30). Saying otherwise is ignoring snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 44 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Faux-vember? It was half of my seasonal total Over 70% here baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 7 hours ago, Whineminster said: Those November events don't even count towards our totals IMO. It's like counting rain in April as part of your total summer rain total. Bogus. The better analogy would be, it's like counting a tropical storm in April as part of the total hurricane season count. In which case, it would be ridiculous to do anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 6 hours ago, MetHerb said: It's not like they were fake snowfalls. They did occur. I'd agree if you're talking about met winter but they do count towards the seasonal snowfall (Jul 1 to June 30). Saying otherwise is ignoring snowfall. Well he does have a point. April 1997 didn't count either, they removed that one from the record books because it didn't fall when folks wanted it to in mid-winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 9 hours ago, eyewall said: My total in Durham, NC for this season is 7 inches (from a single event in December). This is just incredible. You are beating everyone on this board! RDU is over 200% of normal snowfall to date. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 It's almost like there might be something to the fact that for the last 120 years, 14/16 low solar El Ninos have below 45 inches of snow Boston (from Oct-May). My definition for that was under 50 monthly sunspots on average from July-June, centered on winter. For the other 113 winters, 48 have over 45 inches of snow. Pretty big difference....2/16 over 45", 48/113 over 45". The SOI is finally beginning to couple with the El Nino again, so if there is going to be a snowy period in the NE, it should be in the next few weeks. That said, if Boston is still at 2.3" on 2/16, there is less than a 1% chance historically of getting over 44" from 2/16-5/31, only ~10% of years will top 30" in that period. El Nino Sun Jul-J Bos Snow Thru 2/7 1899 18.2 25.0 8.4 1900 8.6 17.5 13.9 1902 18.7 42.0 27 1911 5.4 31.6 21.8 1913 7.4 39.0 12.9 1914 44.5 22.3 15.7 1923 14.6 29.8 12.5 1930 46.3 40.8 20.4 1953 9.5 23.6 20 1963 29.1 63.0 32.3 1965 37.1 44.1 30.3 1976 23.2 58.5 42.9 1986 19.1 42.5 31.3 1994 36.9 14.9 12.6 2006 20.1 17.1 1.8 2009 13.2 35.7 28.9 Mean 22.0 34.2 20.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Man, I tell ya, I'm at 10" this year and about 3" in actual winter. This is like a slightly below average year in DC. Those sons of guns must be real gluttons for punishment. I couldn't take this on a regular basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 9, 2019 Author Share Posted February 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, Hoth said: Man, I tell ya, I'm at 10" this year and about 3" in actual winter. This is like a slightly below average year in DC. Those sons of guns must be real gluttons for punishment. I couldn't take this on a regular basis. You get used to it. It’s actually quite nice to know you will be 100 percent shut out for weeks on end instead of constant faux threats like we’re experiencing here this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 9, 2019 Author Share Posted February 9, 2019 I think BOS adds 2-5” this week before washing away on Friday. Futility still within reach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 On 2/8/2019 at 12:43 AM, raindancewx said: It's almost like there might be something to the fact that for the last 120 years, 14/16 low solar El Ninos have below 45 inches of snow Boston (from Oct-May). My definition for that was under 50 monthly sunspots on average from July-June, centered on winter. For the other 113 winters, 48 have over 45 inches of snow. Pretty big difference....2/16 over 45", 48/113 over 45". The SOI is finally beginning to couple with the El Nino again, so if there is going to be a snowy period in the NE, it should be in the next few weeks. That said, if Boston is still at 2.3" on 2/16, there is less than a 1% chance historically of getting over 44" from 2/16-5/31, only ~10% of years will top 30" in that period. El Nino Sun Jul-J Bos Snow Thru 2/7 1899 18.2 25.0 8.4 1900 8.6 17.5 13.9 1902 18.7 42.0 27 1911 5.4 31.6 21.8 1913 7.4 39.0 12.9 1914 44.5 22.3 15.7 1923 14.6 29.8 12.5 1930 46.3 40.8 20.4 1953 9.5 23.6 20 1963 29.1 63.0 32.3 1965 37.1 44.1 30.3 1976 23.2 58.5 42.9 1986 19.1 42.5 31.3 1994 36.9 14.9 12.6 2006 20.1 17.1 1.8 2009 13.2 35.7 28.9 Mean 22.0 34.2 20.8 I was so confident we’d hit futility which in itself is a weenie event. But then we got swfe near the spring equinox and we missed out. To go under the 9 inches of 1936-37 is work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 There should be a statistic for % of QPF falling as non snow . This year would blow any other out of the water For Bos, Pym, S coast of RI to Cape Cod. So much QPF , almost all Rain. Truly an amazing screw job pattern! Especially when you factor in that average temps have not been a torch. It’s almost a thread the needle ratter for those areas and to the magnitude we are seeing is epic . You will never see the amount of rain falling with so little snow as this year for those locations, it’s truly special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 I’m worried. These ratters can run in bunches. Fingers crossed it’s a one off but can’t be certain of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 23 hours ago, Hazey said: I’m worried. These ratters can run in bunches. Fingers crossed it’s a one off but can’t be certain of that. The way I look at it is if I’m alive and well it’s a win. Multiple ratter years in a row pales vs that in my mind. Being old has some advantages in perspective... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/9/2019 at 10:09 AM, NorEastermass128 said: I think BOS adds 2-5” this week before washing away on Friday. Futility still within reach. Still thinking this is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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