Spanks45 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 its snowing in DC again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 On 1/31/2019 at 7:03 AM, LibertyBell said: yes they were- funny thing is the summers were different. Summer 2002 was much hotter Previous winters were quite different, too, with 1975-76 much colder than 2001-02. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 How does Boston only have 2.3 inches ? Who the hell measures the snow at Logan airport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: How does Boston only have 2.3 inches ? Who the hell measures the snow at Logan airport? Dude i was there for this last event.....they got zero....zilch...nada. I believe it. It's a peninsula jutting out into the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Hmmm, maybe SNE is revisiting 06-07 all over again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 18 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Hmmm, maybe SNE is revisiting 06-07 all over again Not even close tempwise or H5...you have a case with snowfall at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not even close tempwise or H5...you have a case with snowfall at the moment. The rest doesn't matter, only snowfall does at the end of the day. Seasonal forecasting is such a tough nut to crack, too much chaos. You almost wonder if its best to just forecast for 500mb and maybe temperatures, and let the cards fall where they will with regards to snowfall. On the sensible side, a winter like this to date is the same as 06-07 or 11-12 to many casual observers in SNE, even ones that are avid weather followers. But that's half the fun I guess... like knowing the Red Sox have a chance at a championship team, but somehow nothing clicks and the team goes all chicken & beer. Then you get a team with the same projected numbers has the right catalyst that leads to a 108 win season. Or you get the team that should be great, sucks most of the season and goes on a 23-6 stretch in the final month to make the Wild Card game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2006-2007 to date at this point was like +6...this year is like +0.5, lol. The temps aren't even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 4 hours ago, Snow88 said: How does Boston only have 2.3 inches ? Who the hell measures the snow at Logan airport? A couple of the measurements seemed low compared to the rest of the city. The mid November event seemed to have 2-3" elsewhere in the city but 1" at the airport. 1/20 seemed to have 3-4" in the city but again 1" at the airport. Most of Boston is probably 7-9" at this point like NYC is. Doesn't take away from the lameness of this "winter". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: A couple of the measurements seemed low compared to the rest of the city. The mid November event seemed to have 2-3" elsewhere in the city but 1" at the airport. 1/20 seemed to have 3-4" in the city but again 1" at the airport. Most of Boston is probably 7-9" at this point like NYC is. Doesn't take away from the lameness of this "winter". This correct bad measurements are to blame for the most part but this has been a tremendously bad year either way.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: 2006-2007 to date at this point was like +6...this year is like +0.5, lol. The temps aren't even close. ya and yet? Here we are.....the ratter of all ratters......jfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 I hate this winter so much I've refused to even shovel it.....its not even worth it...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 The really bad measurement was November 15th. You could make a case for the others. 0.1?ridiculous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: 2006-2007 to date at this point was like +6...this year is like +0.5, lol. The temps aren't even close. On the other hand 2006-07 got a whole lot better after the first week of February even if it was mostly sleet and freezing rain down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 06-07 had a big -NAO flip. I don’t think we’ll see that. We’ll tickle the nao negative at times, but a big flip isn’t happening imo. We have just been getting terrible luck while NNE rips our head off and poops down our neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Wx has nothing to do with luck good or bad. It happens for scientific reasons , not because of luck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wx has nothing to do with luck good or bad. It happens for scientific reasons , not because of luck Agree wholeheartedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wx has nothing to do with luck good or bad. It happens for scientific reasons , not because of luck LOL ok. We’ve mentioned it before. Luck as in being at the mercy of nuances where similar looks yield different outcomes. When you are near normal and extremely wet, you’ve had some bad breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: LOL ok. We’ve mentioned it before. Luck as in being at the mercy of nuances where similar looks yield different outcomes. When you are near normal and extremely wet, you’ve had some bad breaks. Those bad breaks happen because of something atmospherically though. Not because it was bad luck . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Those bad breaks happen because of something atmospherically though. Not because it was bad luck . That’s what he is saying. Small atmospheric nuances screwing us. A similar look may or usually does yield better results. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Those bad breaks happen because of something atmospherically though. Not because it was bad luck . I know that. My point as well as many others is that we’ve had similar looks in the past that’s yielded much better outcomes. Likewise we’ve had way worse looks actually yield snowier looks. When the gradient is 50-80 miles north....that’s just some shit luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 There's def a few in here who get triggered by the "luck" explanation. It's just a synonym for smaller scale nuances and not the hemispheric longwave pattern. You hear us all the time..:.what do we want to avoid? We want to avoid a death vortex over Alaska. Almost every single horrible ratter had one. 2011-2012, 2006-2007, 2001-2002, etc. This year we have EPO ridging there. We've been near normal for temps. You cannot blame the longwave pattern PNA scooter shitstreak stopping two snowstorms that DC got and we didn't or a rogue shortwave coming in and phasing at the last second to turn an overrunning event into a cutter...things like that will happen throughout a season but typically they even out. The flipping a coin analogy is a good one here. You expect to get some 50/50s in your favor but you also wouldn't be totally shocked if 8 heads and 1 tails comes up either when you are dealing with a sample size under 10. You know that those sort of streaks do happen and it has nothing to do with the coin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 If we only lived at 5H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 The nao will flip just in time for tippy's gray and gloom April's of yore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's def a few in here who get triggered by the "luck" explanation. It's just a synonym for smaller scale nuances and not the hemispheric longwave pattern. You hear us all the time..:.what do we want to avoid? We want to avoid a death vortex over Alaska. Almost every single horrible ratter had one. 2011-2012, 2006-2007, 2001-2002, etc. This year we have EPO ridging there. We've been near normal for temps. You cannot blame the longwave pattern PNA scooter shitstreak stopping two snowstorms that DC got and we didn't or a rogue shortwave coming in and phasing at the last second to turn an overrunning event into a cutter...things like that will happen throughout a season but typically they even out. The flipping a coin analogy is a good one here. You expect to get some 50/50s in your favor but you also wouldn't be totally shocked if 8 heads and 1 tails comes up either when you are dealing with a sample size under 10. You know that those sort of streaks do happen and it has nothing to do with the coin. I didn't hear much complaining about luck from the E MA folks in 2015... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 2, 2019 Author Share Posted February 2, 2019 2/2 BOS @ 2.3”. Midweek event looking wet. Next threat likely 10+ days out. We’ll be nearing mid month with little to no change in numbers. Futility odds increasing day by day, week by week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2/2 BOS @ 2.3”. Midweek event looking wet. Next threat likely 10+ days out. We’ll be nearing mid month with little to no change in numbers. Futility odds increasing day by day, week by week. I'm way less than 2" in se mass. (underhanded pitch) Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 I just don't totally buy the luck concept for the 80s pattern...i.e. cutter, arctic, cutter, arctic, rinse-repeat. Yeah, temps are near normal and we've been very wet, but it's because the cutters deluge us and then a Molly Ringwald airmass settles in. It's not like we're getting 2" of QPF from events that we're thisclose to getting 20" of snow from. It's 2-3" of liquid thanks to dews in the 50s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 10 hours ago, powderfreak said: The rest doesn't matter, only snowfall does at the end of the day. Seasonal forecasting is such a tough nut to crack, too much chaos. You almost wonder if its best to just forecast for 500mb and maybe temperatures, and let the cards fall where they will with regards to snowfall. On the sensible side, a winter like this to date is the same as 06-07 or 11-12 to many casual observers in SNE, even ones that are avid weather followers. But that's half the fun I guess... like knowing the Red Sox have a chance at a championship team, but somehow nothing clicks and the team goes all chicken & beer. Then you get a team with the same projected numbers has the right catalyst that leads to a 108 win season. Or you get the team that should be great, sucks most of the season and goes on a 23-6 stretch in the final month to make the Wild Card game. I'm sorry, this has been nothing like 2011-2012 or 2006-2007 to me. The causal observer, sure....but to anyone with a modicum of meteorological intellect...nope. And this is not about my outlook, either...that has been an unequivocal failure to this point. I get that. Not trying to argue that. Raindance has been better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 59 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: If we only lived at 5H. I think H5 over sne has had a normal winter...not great, but not this horrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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