Futility Thread - Winter 18/19

[powderfreak]

7 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

2.4" for MET Winter as I head into February and 8.4" since November 15th.  

That truly is a remarkable bend over by Nature.  It precipitates 3 times a week all winter and none of it has worked out to be snow.  Truly the opposite of 2015.

I knew it was bad but 2.4" for met winter entering February...that takes some needle threading.  

The melts are definitely worthwhile at that.

[The 4 Seasons]

4 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

LMAO.....We're coming off the tracks.  But it's warranted.  This winter to date has blown Chow big time.   Any low 80's coming up for Feb like last year....hope so.   Let's try for all time lowest snowfall total this year.  I'm at 12.75" on the season.  Even 11-12 had about 18" for the total snow for my area that crap year, maybe this winter becomes the New all time Ratter over that one????   Bring on the Rat!!

Where were you for 01-02? That was far worse than 11-12 or this season. 7" on the season 01-02, with one single 3-6" statewide "storm" The Foxborough Storm, Jan 20th 2002.

[Hoth]

36 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Where were you for 01-02? That was far worse than 11-12 or this season. 7" on the season 01-02, with one single 3-6" statewide "storm" The Foxborough Storm, Jan 20th 2002.

And I think it snowed in May that year. Talk about a punch to the nards. 

[#NoPoles]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Where were you for 01-02? That was far worse than 11-12 or this season. 7" on the season 01-02, with one single 3-6" statewide "storm" The Foxborough Storm, Jan 20th 2002.

I was working in Suches GA. I remember a storm that brought snow, and one that had ice

[The 4 Seasons]

8 hours ago, Hoth said:

And I think it snowed in May that year. Talk about a punch to the nards. 

Not of any consequence, i remember one storm there was supposed to be sleet/zr/snow and nothing really happened at all, i believe it was in March or April, don't remember any May storm in 02.

[H2Otown_WX]

14 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Not of any consequence, i remember one storm there was supposed to be sleet/zr/snow and nothing really happened at all, i believe it was in March or April, don't remember any May storm in 02.

It snowed here on the first day of spring. I can't remember how much maybe about 4 or 5"?

[The 4 Seasons]

6 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

It snowed here on the first day of spring. I can't remember how much maybe about 4 or 5"?

yeah so march, not may. only May i know is May9/10 1977.

[H2Otown_WX]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

yeah so march, not may. only May i know is May9/10 1977.

I don't remember May. I know April was really hot. I was in Cooperstown at the Baseball HOF and it was like 80F lol.

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I don't remember May. I know April was really hot. I was in Cooperstown at the Baseball HOF and it was like 80F lol.

ORH got measureable snow in May 2002 I believe.  That was the year with no winter and a hell sprnig.  We had a famous us back door dropping temperatures from the low 90s to 50s.  I had to uninstall until July.

[Hoth]

5 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Not of any consequence, i remember one storm there was supposed to be sleet/zr/snow and nothing really happened at all, i believe it was in March or April, don't remember any May storm in 02.

No, certainly not of consequence. But I remember distinctly it snowed around my birthday in May one year in the early 2000s. I think it was '02, but I could be wrong.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

ORH got measureable snow in May 2002 I believe.  That was the year with no winter and a hell sprnig.  We had a famous us back door dropping temperatures from the low 90s to 50s.  I had to uninstall until July.

 My area got 2-4” on May 18 2002...for some reason I always think it was 2004, then Will corrects me.

in May 1977 I got 10” in Foxboro

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

I was working in Suches GA. I remember a storm that brought snow, and one that had ice

01-02 was far better down south, there was a historic snowstorm in the Carolinas

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

 My area got 2-4” on May 18 2002...for some reason I always think it was 2004, then Will corrects me.

in May 1977 I got 10” in Foxboro

 

lol May snow brings June blooms.....

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

ORH got measureable snow in May 2002 I believe.  That was the year with no winter and a hell sprnig.  We had a famous us back door dropping temperatures from the low 90s to 50s.  I had to uninstall until July.

you guys didnt get the big April heatwave?  We hit 96 in April that year during the heatwave and it was one of our hottest summers/early falls the grass was brown and then yellow here, looked like straw.

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I don't remember May. I know April was really hot. I was in Cooperstown at the Baseball HOF and it was like 80F lol.

big 4 day heatwave in April which peaked at either 96 or 97, it matched the April 1976 heatwave almost to the same exact days, and it felt amazing! the skies were the bluest I've ever seen.

 

2002-03 completely made up for 2001-02

[tamarack]

And it wasn't late April, but the 3rd week - the mid 90s day came on something like the 17th.  Which was 1 day earlier than the 96 hit in 1976. 
The 2  heat waves were eerily similar in NYC.  4/17-20/1976 highs: 91/96/92/89.  4/16-19/2002:  92/96/91/89.  The 2 hottest April days, and those 92s are tied for 3rd hottest.  We drove from NNJ to Boston on the earlier 96° day, and I think one could have fried an egg (or burnt it) on the Beetle's air-cooled engine.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

If mid Feb nao blocking doesn’t work out ...this thread will really gain steam

[STILL N OF PIKE]

What is the cape at year to date?

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What is the cape at year to date?

Less than 5" likely for most.

[Dan76]

3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Less than 5" likely for most.

Same here.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Could be remarkable to think that I may go 3 months and only see 2.4” of snow. 

[LibertyBell]

On 1/29/2019 at 1:23 PM, tamarack said:

And it wasn't late April, but the 3rd week - the mid 90s day came on something like the 17th.  Which was 1 day earlier than the 96 hit in 1976. 
The 2  heat waves were eerily similar in NYC.  4/17-20/1976 highs: 91/96/92/89.  4/16-19/2002:  92/96/91/89.  The 2 hottest April days, and those 92s are tied for 3rd hottest.  We drove from NNJ to Boston on the earlier 96° day, and I think one could have fried an egg (or burnt it) on the Beetle's air-cooled engine.

yes they were- funny thing is the summers were different.  Summer 2002 was much hotter

[qg_omega]

On 1/1/2019 at 12:51 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Over on all four.

Aggressive

[NorEastermass128]

1" last night.  

8" for the season (7.5" for MET winter)

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Aggressive

Looks that way.

[NorEastermass128]

BOS at 2.2 or 2.3

Just about 41 more inches to reach normal.

[raindancewx]

Here are some numbers for Boston, now that 10/1-1/31 is at 2.3" in Boston officially -

From 1891-2018, the most snow Boston has had from 2/1-5/31 is 73.4 inches in 2015. 1925 had Trace. If you throw out the ten snowiest and ten least snowy periods, you'd expect 6-46 inches for 2/1-5/31, based on the records. Low solar El Ninos (by SSTA / annual sunspots) average 13.8" since 1931 for 2/1-5/31, its a bit less if you include prior to 1930.

The 2.3" through 1/31 is 2nd lowest, for 10/1-1/31, behind 2006-07 since 1891-92.

Boston finished January with a high of 38.5F, my analogs had 36.7F for January (the blend of January 1954, 1977, 1987, 1995, 1995, 2007), so not bad for an October outlook.

I've been pleased with the blend to date, 1953 showed up in late Nov / early Dec, 1986 in Oct/Nov, 1994/2006 in Dec, 2006/1977 in Jan. As amazing as January 1977 was, Boston never had a high as low as 10F like it did this year. The magnitude of the battle between the heat and cold was the hardest part of the forecast for me, it's why I had 1994 and 1976 in there. The coldest highs in 1977 were Jan 17-18, this year Jan 21-22. I incorporate MJO timing into my analogs, so that was about when I expected the severe cold to show up if it was going to happen.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Here are some numbers for Boston, now that 10/1-1/31 is at 2.3" in Boston officially -

From 1891-2018, the most snow Boston has had from 2/1-5/31 is 73.4 inches in 2015. 1925 had Trace. If you throw out the ten snowiest and ten least snowy periods, you'd expect 6-46 inches for 2/1-5/31, based on the records. Low solar El Ninos (by SSTA / annual sunspots) average 13.8" since 1931 for 2/1-5/31, its a bit less if you include prior to 1930.

The 2.3" through 1/31 is 2nd lowest, for 10/1-1/31, behind 2006-07 since 1891-92.

Boston finished January with a high of 38.5F, my analogs had 36.7F for January (the blend of January 1954, 1977, 1987, 1995, 1995, 2007), so not bad for an October outlook.

I've been pleased with the blend to date, 1953 showed up in late Nov / early Dec, 1986 in Oct/Nov, 1994/2006 in Dec, 2006/1977 in Jan. As amazing as January 1977 was, Boston never had a high as low as 10F like it did this year. The magnitude of the battle between the heat and cold was the hardest part of the forecast for me, it's why I had 1994 and 1976 in there. The coldest highs in 1977 were Jan 17-18, this year Jan 21-22. I incorporate MJO timing into my analogs, so that was about when I expected the severe cold to show up if it was going to happen.

Are you comparing December 2018 to a 1994/2006 December composite? Your outlook has been good, but how was 12/18 similar to 12/94 and 12/06...aside from from dearth of snowfall in SNE? Unless I'm misunderstanding you. They were pretty dissimilar.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Are you comparing December 2018 to a 1994/2006 December composite? Your outlook has been good, but how was 12/18 similar to 12/94 and 12/06...aside from from dearth of snowfall? Unless I'm misunderstanding you. They were pretty dissimilar.

Its all good but changes when you put the real number in boston of 7.5

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Its all good but changes when you put the real number in boston of 7.5

So far, he has had about the best outlook that I have seen...certainly better than mine. I'm just a little confused on the December comparison....even a very accurate outlook is going to have some points that are stronger than others, so I'm certainly not trying to detract from what to this point has been exemplary work.

I know the PAC jet started to get active later in Dec...but aside from that, I really don't see the comparison to 12/94 and 12/06, aside from paltry sne snowfall.