Futility Thread - Winter 18/19

[raindancewx]

Officially at 4.7" snow in Boston now for the cold season through 2/12.

[NorEastermass128]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Officially at 4.7" snow in Boston now for the cold season through 2/12.

We’re cooking now. 

[NorEastermass128]

Did BOS record anything from last night’s squalls?  Mid FEB and sitting at < 5” on the season. The rat lives on. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

I passed 10"!  2011/12 was my worst season since moving to my current location in 2004.  14.80" that season.

[raindancewx]

Boston actually has the same solar tendency Albuquerque has for March snow in El Ninos - the high solar years tend to see much more severe snowfalls as a rule. Taken verbatim, with maybe 6 sunspots on average for July-June 2018-19, you'd expect about 4 inches in March, give or take three. This is consistent with low-solar El Ninos being warm in the East generally during March. The data I used is for El Ninos since 1931.

[weathafella]

BOS would have to accumulate 0.8 or less from 2pm today on for futility.   Looks like futility won’t happen this year.

[raindancewx]

I never really expected Boston to finish under 10" - my analogs had 35" for Boston and I assumed that was a bit high. My contention was always that 45"+ was unlikely given the ENSO/solar combo. Boston was at 8.2" as of 4 pm today on the Boston NWS site, with only T since. Exactly one year on record has had over 37" from 2/19-5/31, so the 45"+ is unlikely thing still looks pretty solid.

Since 1891-82, the 8.2" (maybe a touch more after 4 pm today) through 2/18 is still 6th lowest on record. Most snow on record for 2/19-5/31 since 1892 is 53.0" in 1993. For 2/19-5/31, 90% of years have under 25 inches of snow in Boston. 

 

[weathafella]

Down to 0.6 for futility.  A sloppy 0.7 Wednesday night and it’s over.  1936-37 was the ultimate ratter!

[NorEastermass128]

For those following along...

BOS up to 8.4" on the season after the 3.6" that fell yesterday.  

Jerry's math is correct above.  If BOS scores 0.7" of slop before the changeover tomorrow night, 1936-37 remains King of the ratters.  Maybe 2018-19 will be its Queen?

[ORH_wxman]

34 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

For those following along...

BOS up to 8.4" on the season after the 3.6" that fell yesterday.  

Jerry's math is correct above.  If BOS scores 0.7" of slop before the changeover tomorrow night, 1936-37 remains King of the ratters.  Maybe 2018-19 will be its Queen?

2011-2012 was 9.3" (though a controversial measurement on 1/21/12 made it a lot closer than it probably should have been)....but regardless, 9.3 will be a tough squeeze for 2nd place.

 

BOS will probably get some decent event in March to make this winter a more generic ratter...ala 2006-2007 or 1994-1995.

[NorEastermass128]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2011-2012 was 9.3" (though a controversial measurement on 1/21/12 made it a lot closer than it probably should have been)....but regardless, 9.3 will be a tough squeeze for 2nd place.

 

BOS will probably get some decent event in March to make this winter a more generic ratter...ala 2006-2007 or 1994-1995.

Wow. I forgot how bad 2011-12 was. 

[NeonPeon]

This is easily the worst winter season Newport, RI has ever had, thus far, but the mighty 3 inches in November combined with a few half inches of slop here and there since means that we're already JUST exceeding the 5" record in 97-98 for yearly snowfall.

All the snow we've had feels like nothing though.  A random alberta clipper on any other season, dropping 2 inches that is gone the next morning, would be preferable to all the snow this season.  

If they could measure ugliness, this winter would be the clear winner so far.

 

[Hoth]

I think in the end I will come to prefer 2012 over this season. At least that season had excitement in October. Nothing like having average temps and well above average precipitation with 4" of snow for the meteorological winter to date. 2012 also featured very low expectations from the get go, was relatively mild and transitioned into spring with one of the great torches of all time. I remember walking home from work in the financial district with that distinct smell of grass in the air. The cherry trees in the graveyard by the Athenaeum were in blossom and hundreds of people were lying out on the Common soaking up the 80 degree temperatures. That was a spectacular stretch. 

[Whineminster]

Honestly I don't mind these SWFEs....I'll gladly take 4" of cement and some FZ DZ or even RA....but I'd want it to get cold after to lock it in. Helps build a nice base for skimobiling in SNH

[DomNH]

If I have to shovel one more 3'' then cement event I may jump off the Tobin. Give me 70F. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, Hoth said:

I think in the end I will come to prefer 2012 over this season. At least that season had excitement in October. Nothing like having average temps and well above average precipitation with 4" of snow for the meteorological winter to date. 2012 also featured very low expectations from the get go, was relatively mild and transitioned into spring with one of the great torches of all time. I remember walking home from work in the financial district with that distinct smell of grass in the air. The cherry trees in the graveyard by the Athenaeum were in blossom and hundreds of people were lying out on the Common soaking up the 80 degree temperatures. That was a spectacular stretch. 

Sad

[wxsniss]

A few years ago, I remember NOAA had a web site I frequented with a simple text table listing every single monthly snowfall Jan-Dec, year by year, going back to at least early 1900s... and you could find all of that for KBOS, KORH, KBLD, etc

I can't find it / it's been removed? Anyone have a link to this or something comparable?

[StormSurge]

3 hours ago, Hoth said:

I think in the end I will come to prefer 2012 over this season. At least that season had excitement in October. Nothing like having average temps and well above average precipitation with 4" of snow for the meteorological winter to date. 2012 also featured very low expectations from the get go, was relatively mild and transitioned into spring with one of the great torches of all time. I remember walking home from work in the financial district with that distinct smell of grass in the air. The cherry trees in the graveyard by the Athenaeum were in blossom and hundreds of people were lying out on the Common soaking up the 80 degree temperatures. That was a spectacular stretch. 

At least I was able to shovel once in '11/'12. 

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, StormSurge said:

At least I was able to shovel once in '11/'12. 

Don't worry, another epic FI severe season is just around the corner.

[tamarack]

4 hours ago, Hoth said:

I think in the end I will come to prefer 2012 over this season. At least that season had excitement in October. Nothing like having average temps and well above average precipitation with 4" of snow for the meteorological winter to date. 2012 also featured very low expectations from the get go, was relatively mild and transitioned into spring with one of the great torches of all time. I remember walking home from work in the financial district with that distinct smell of grass in the air. The cherry trees in the graveyard by the Athenaeum were in blossom and hundreds of people were lying out on the Common soaking up the 80 degree temperatures. That was a spectacular stretch. 

Beyond spectacular up here.  In terms of anomalous heat, March 18-23 ranks with July 1911 for the tops in the Farmington co-op's 125-year records.  (Departures in 1911 ran about 10° lower than 3/2012, but I consider a 15° departure in July as roughly equivalent to 25° in March.)   Those 6 March days averaged 25° AN, as shown below:

3/18   78/31   +25.5
3/19   71/32   +21.9
3/20   80/32   +26.0    Breaks month of March record, set same date in 1903.
3/21   82/35   +28.0
3/22   83/36   +28.5
3/23   64/42   +21.6
The above include all of the 5 warmest March days since the co-op began in 1893.  Only others above 74 were 77 and 76, both on the 29th, in 1945 and 1946.

[Hoth]

28 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Beyond spectacular up here.  In terms of anomalous heat, March 18-23 ranks with July 1911 for the tops in the Farmington co-op's 125-year records.  (Departures in 1911 ran about 10° lower than 3/2012, but I consider a 15° departure in July as roughly equivalent to 25° in March.)   Those 6 March days averaged 25° AN, as shown below:

3/18   78/31   +25.5
3/19   71/32   +21.9
3/20   80/32   +26.0    Breaks month of March record, set same date in 1903.
3/21   82/35   +28.0
3/22   83/36   +28.5
3/23   64/42   +21.6
The above include all of the 5 warmest March days since the co-op began in 1893.  Only others above 74 were 77 and 76, both on the 29th, in 1945 and 1946.

Wow, I didn't realize you hit the 80s all the way up there. That is incredible.

[NorEastermass128]

34 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Wow, I didn't realize you hit the 80s all the way up there. That is incredible.

I think Ginxy was skiing at Sunday River with the base scorching at 90F during that freak heat. 

[tamarack]

33 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Wow, I didn't realize you hit the 80s all the way up there. That is incredible.

Several logging contractors working on the state lands we manage had to leave thousands of cords on winter roads, to be recovered almost a year later.  They hauled all the high-quality volume - sawlogs and veneer - before the thaw wrecked the roads, but I'm sure the pulpwood lost considerable value by the time they could move it, as that product is scaled by weight.  (And even more volume was stranded on private lands, the vast majority of Maine's forest.)

[OceanStWx]

42 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Wow, I didn't realize you hit the 80s all the way up there. That is incredible.

In the northern parts of the forecast area we were hitting 70 over 10" of snow.

[tamarack]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

In the northern parts of the forecast area we were hitting 70 over 10" of snow.

Still had 3" at 9 PM that survived Farmington's 78° on 3/18.  Only patches by the 19th and even they were gone by the 21st. 
Even with all that heat, 3/2012 was less mild overall than 3/2010, temps 36.26 vs. 37.24.  2012 average highs were 1° milder but the lows were 3° cooler.  2012 got down to -2 and had 11 BN days, while 2010 bottomed out at 11 and had 3 BN days.

[ice1972]

On 2/18/2019 at 9:18 PM, weathafella said:

Down to 0.6 for futility.  A sloppy 0.7 Wednesday night and it’s over.  1936-37 was the ultimate ratter!

Coming in 2nd or 3rd won't make this season any better.....it will still be Futile......god it can't end soon enough.....

[LibertyBell]

On 2/2/2019 at 7:47 AM, ORH_wxman said:

There's def a few in here who get triggered by the "luck" explanation. It's just a synonym for smaller scale nuances and not the hemispheric longwave pattern. 

You hear us all the time..:.what do we want to avoid? We want to avoid a death vortex over Alaska. Almost every single horrible ratter had one. 2011-2012, 2006-2007, 2001-2002, etc. This year we have EPO ridging there. We've been near normal for temps. You cannot blame the longwave pattern PNA scooter shitstreak stopping two snowstorms that DC got and we didn't or a rogue shortwave coming in and phasing at the last second to turn an overrunning event into a cutter...things like that will happen throughout a season but typically they even out. 

The flipping a coin analogy is a good one here. You expect to get some 50/50s in your favor but you also wouldn't be totally shocked if 8 heads and 1 tails comes up either when you are dealing with a sample size under 10. You know that those sort of streaks do happen and it has nothing to do with the coin. 

the roaring Pac jet is being used to explain our awful winter.  Persistent patterns have definitely become the norm in this decade.  The storm tracks are all robotically similar this year lol.

[LibertyBell]

On 2/2/2019 at 8:52 AM, dendrite said:

I just don't totally buy the luck concept for the 80s pattern...i.e. cutter, arctic, cutter, arctic, rinse-repeat. Yeah, temps are near normal and we've been very wet, but it's because the cutters deluge us and then a Molly Ringwald airmass settles in. It's not like we're getting 2" of QPF from events that we're thisclose to getting 20" of snow from. It's 2-3" of liquid thanks to dews in the 50s.

Thats correct- it was so bad for so consistently long that there were some climatic factors at play.  It was the same pattern on repeat because it's very stable.  

[LibertyBell]

On 2/2/2019 at 9:08 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah but it's not like those systems would have given us small QPF if they went south. The point is it's been active and not a torch. That's the bad luck...these cutters...None of them are front ending us or turning into SWFEs

the SE Ridge has been anomalously strong since last summer

[LibertyBell]

On 2/2/2019 at 10:28 AM, ORH_wxman said:

The objective analog pattern matches from CPC or CIPS can help tell us how "lucky" or "unlucky" we are. I've been seeing plenty of pretty good years and good storms on the analog pages. 

When you have total ratters like 2015-2016 or 2011-2012, the analogs are filled with ratters. That hasn't been happening this year. So far, I would argue the pattern has been more similar to a composite average snowfall year for SNE or even slightly better than average. 

Honestly, the more we see the success or lack thereof of long range winter forecasting, the better the NOAA idea of probability forecasts looks.  Just give probabilities for various snowfall ranges and that factors variance (which is a better term to use than luck is) and you have the margins of error built right into it.  Probability forecasting is the way to go because that reflects the variance range possible in weather forecasting.