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Futility Thread - Winter 18/19


NorEastermass128
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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Luck or voodoo or bad or good Juju is just what we call it when we(as a science community) don’t understand why something happens in the presence of circumstances that should dictate the opposite.  I think that’s a better way to describe the luck/chaos aspect of this. 

 

Im sure there’s a scientific reason for what is happening now, despite the decent H5 set up.  The problem is, we don’t know exactly what that reason/causation is yet???  So we call it chaos etc etc... 

Well some of it is explainable....with no blocking, there is an avenue for every storm to cut, and with poorly timed confluence, also an avenue for every storm to whiff south.

But when all of them avail themselves of said opportunities? I call it SNE's Patrick Mahomes impersonation at the meteorological coin flip.

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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

No one is going to take long range forecasting seriously after this winter.

 

I think seasons like this advance the science the most.

Last season was easy....I knew the answer to 2+2 was 4 heading in. But when you tell me something that I don't know?

I call that room for growth.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

This isn’t even niño. Throw any analog for niño out window. This is more 13-14 displaced a bit north. I know you mention 68-69 as behaving  like niño, but atmosphere is showing no sign of niño. 

Talk to me in 2 months.

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

How are low solar years  crappy? I don’t see that. 

Go back in look at his stuff...I didn't see it either, but I'll revisit it.

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well some of it is explainable....with no blocking, there is an avenue for every storm to cut, and with poorly timed confluence, also an avenue for every storm to whiff south.

But when all of them avail themselves of said opportunities? I call it SNE's Patrick Mahomes impersonation at the meteorological coin flip.

Yes of course some if it is explainable by all means. And you’ve explained it as well as anybody can for sure.  But it’s(the weather) still not doing what the explantations would show.  

And that’s where we don’t have the tech yet(in the modeling) to reveal these tricky reasons out in front enough, to account for these chaotic outcomes, when most everything else argues for  a decent outcome.   That’s the chaos of this science currently.  Sure there’s a real reason for it...we just don’t know what it is, or why yet.

 

Great job nonetheless Ray!!   

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes of course some if it is explainable by all means. And you’ve explained it as well as anybody can for sure.  But it’s(the weather) still not doing what the explantations would show.  

And that’s where we don’t have the tech yet(in the modeling) to reveal these tricky reasons out in front enough, to account for these chaotic outcomes, when most everything else argues for  a decent outcome.   That’s the chaos of this science currently.  Sure there’s a real reason for it...we just don’t know what it is, or why yet.

 

Great job nonetheless Ray!!   

Well, I think that is implicit with any long range outlook...all you can do is play the odds based upon the pattern you see.

And no worries...you can tell me that my outlook sucked. Its okay :lol:

I've missed it...luck, or no luck. Its cool, though....I've learned a lot doing it, and I hope others have, too.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I think that is implicit with any long range outlook...all you can do is play the odds based upon the pattern you see.

And no worries...you can tell me that my outlook sucked. Its okay :lol:

I've missed it...luck, or no luck. Its cool, though....I've learned a lot doing it, and I hope others have, too.

I agree 100%.  You play the odds on what you see...and like you said that’s all we can do.  

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I think that is implicit with any long range outlook...all you can do is play the odds based upon the pattern you see.

And no worries...you can tell me that my outlook sucked. Its okay :lol:

I've missed it...luck, or no luck. Its cool, though....I've learned a lot doing it, and I hope others have, too.

I think your outlook was great...you got the H5 right in my opinion..it’s jyst this season is a dud here for us..stuff like that you can’t see from a far.

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The good news takeaway from this is that there are a lot of talented people, both pro and weenie, who put a lot of work and thought into their perspective outlooks. Should this season flop, I’ll bet some of these folks will be doing a full postmortem to find out where things went wrong and in effect advancing the science.

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I know people hate hearing this but this winter was purely MJO driven.

Just plot the MJO back from early December and everything that happened can be tied down to it from the SE snowstorm (phase 2-3) in early Dec to the mid Dec-early Jan mild weather (phase 4-6) to the Mid-Atlantic snowstorm (phase 8) and now back to the milder weather (phase 6-7).

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

I know people hate hearing this but this winter was purely MJO driven.

Just plot the MJO back from early December and everything that happened can be tied down to it from the SE snowstorm (phase 2-3) in early Dec to the mid Dec-early Jan mild weather (phase 4-6) to the Mid-Atlantic snowstorm (phase 8) and now back to the milder weather (phase 6-7).

Well it may have matched the expected pr phase but was it MJO driven?  I can’t answer that.    But keep in mind correlation does not imply causation even if it looks that way.

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28 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I love the 80s referenced liberally this year.  Anyone watch The Americans episodes?  Takes place during the Reagan years and so classic 80s background.  Filmed on a lot of snowy backdrops interestingly.

This was from Ray and I was laughing my arse off.

Reagan Ratter.

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28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I know people hate hearing this but this winter was purely MJO driven.

Just plot the MJO back from early December and everything that happened can be tied down to it from the SE snowstorm (phase 2-3) in early Dec to the mid Dec-early Jan mild weather (phase 4-6) to the Mid-Atlantic snowstorm (phase 8) and now back to the milder weather (phase 6-7).

Oversimplifying it. Our coldest weather of the entire season has been phase 4-6...including our one decent winter storm. 

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So you think winter’s over?

that the cold, has finally reached, the end

every model run, night or day

the pattern’s torching on you, and all of your friends...yeah

it’s gonna take a little time

Time is sure to re-sort, the troughs

Oh don’t you even worry weenie darlin’

the step down will begin again

 

oh yeah

snow is, all around you

Cold is knockin’, outside your door

Waiting for you, is heavy snow falling at 2F

Keep your weenie up and you will find some snow again, i know

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Ladies and gentlemen of the weenie class of 2018-19

I have one piece of advice for you

No matter what Ray tells you

There’s no snow in southern New England

None

Oh there’s cold in southern New England, but you don’t want cold

You want snow

And there’s no snow in southern New England

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Ladies and gentlemen of the weenie class of 2018-19

I have one piece of advice for you

No matter what Ray tells you

There’s no snow in southern New England

None

Oh there’s cold in southern New England, but you don’t want cold

You want snow

And there’s no snow in southern New England

Jesus christ...champagne room was 1999? I swear that was 10 years earlier.

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48 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Ladies and gentlemen of the weenie class of 2018-19

I have one piece of advice for you

No matter what Ray tells you

There’s no snow in southern New England

None

Oh there’s cold in southern New England, but you don’t want cold

You want snow

And there’s no snow in southern New England

CAD. Ain't nothing wrong with that.

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