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Futility Thread - Winter 18/19


NorEastermass128
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11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I just don't totally buy the luck concept for the 80s pattern...i.e. cutter, arctic, cutter, arctic, rinse-repeat. Yeah, temps are near normal and we've been very wet, but it's because the cutters deluge us and then a Molly Ringwald airmass settles in. It's not like we're getting 2" of QPF from events that we're thisclose to getting 20" of snow from. It's 2-3" of liquid thanks to dews in the 50s.

I agree...its both. We have been unlucky, but its been easier to be victimized bad luck bc the pattern has been flawed. 

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14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I just don't totally buy the luck concept for the 80s pattern...i.e. cutter, arctic, cutter, arctic, rinse-repeat. Yeah, temps are near normal and we've been very wet, but it's because the cutters deluge us and then a Molly Ringwald airmass settles in. It's not like we're getting 2" of QPF from events that we're thisclose to getting 20" of snow from. It's 2-3" of liquid thanks to dews in the 50s.

Yeah but it's not like those systems would have given us small QPF if they went south. The point is it's been active and not a torch. That's the bad luck...these cutters...None of them are front ending us or turning into SWFEs

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah but it's not like those systems would have given us small QPF if they went south. The point is it's been active and not a torch. That's the bad luck...these cutters...None of them are front ending us or turning into SWFEs

So I consider that more of a pattern flaw than an unlucky nuance. Maybe it doesn't show up on composite H5 anomalies, but there's a reason for the bolded.

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The overall take is that the pattern is really not as bad as the outcome has been for SNE. If you showed me the H5 look prior to any knowledge of snowfall outcome, I’d laugh in your face. 

Exactly.

Except for raindance...exceptional call by him. He mentioned something about low solar years being crappy for sne snowfall.

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23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

So I consider that more of a pattern flaw than an unlucky nuance. Maybe it doesn't show up on composite H5 anomalies, but there's a reason for the bolded.

I think we are talking about two different things again. I am talking about the longwave pattern. You seem to be focusing on the smaller scale synoptic pattern leading into the events. I agree that once we see the pattern right before the event it doesn't look good, but those are generally caused by smaller nuances that are totally unpredictable and easily could have happened the other way within the same longwave pattern. 

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That’s why chaos is as big a factor in all of this as science is.  And this year more than ever seems to prove that even more than I can remember.

 

We had fabulous science based outlooks by guys here...grounded in science like no tomorrow...and yet the chaos/bad juju has overshadowed all of it.  The pattern isn’t all that bad as you all have pointed out...yet bad juju/chaos had kept us from anything meaningful.  Imo that’s a sign that you can have all the science down pat, and it still can fool anyone...and it has so far this year.  And I believe this second half will go the same way as the first half.  It’s a Ratter through and through unfortunately. 

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30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly.

Except for raindance...exceptional call by him. He mentioned something about low solar years being crappy for sne snowfall.

This isn’t even niño. Throw any analog for niño out window. This is more 13-14 displaced a bit north. I know you mention 68-69 as behaving  like niño, but atmosphere is showing no sign of niño. 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s why chaos is as big a factor in all of this as science is.  And this year more than ever seems to prove that even more than I can remember.

 

We had fabulous science based outlooks by guys here...grounded in science like no tomorrow...and yet the chaos/bad juju has overshadowed all of it.  The pattern isn’t all that bad as you all have pointed out...yet bad juju/chaos had kept us from anything meaningful.  Imo that’s a sign that you can have all the science down pat, and it still can fool anyone...and it has so far this year.  And I believe this second half will go the same way as the first half.  It’s a Ratter through and through unfortunately. 

Or there is more we have to learn. There's not a lot of skill with these long range seasonal forecasts once you get beyond super ninos. I think Nick just put it well in the other thread, there's a percentage of your winter you can attribute to the longwave pattern and then another you can attribute to synoptic nuances that we can't see from a long lead at this point in time. My argument in all of this is that the 80s pattern has been a little too persistent for me to call it "luck". I understand Will's point too and it's probably all just semantics. I'm not sure if Will and I even disagree. May just be a glass half full or half empty kind of thing.

But I disagree with you. The pattern sucks at our latitude. You're trying to put lipstick on a pig. No one has the science down pat.

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I dont believe in luck, in science. The atmosphere doesnt have emotions, it doesnt seek out ways to screw people over. It is controlled by the laws physics, some of which we dont have a good handle on. Whatever happens, is the outcome of the main controling physical parameters. There is no cross your fingers and toes. If the wave spacing is counter productive, or speed of the atmosphere is counter productive, or there is deconstructive wave interference, it isn't bad luck. Everything is a product of how the physical parameters of the atmosphere and the oceans, as wrll as others we dont often take into consideration, are interacting with eachother to create what we label as a pattern. Longrange forecasters have a shit job. How do you predict the outcome of an entire season when you dont even know what all the ingredients are? My hat goes off to anyone who dares to try and puts legit effort into it

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1 minute ago, #NoPoles said:

I dont believe in luck, in science. The atmosphere doesnt have emotions, it doesnt seek out ways to screw people over. It is controlled by the laws physics, some of which we dont have a good handle on. Whatever happens, is the outcome of the main controling physical parameters. There is no cross your fingers and toes. If the wave spacing is counter productive, or speed of the atmosphere is counter productive, or there is deconstructive wave interference, it isn't bad luck. Everything is a product of how the physical parameters of the atmosphere and the oceans, as wrll as others we dont often take into consideration, are interacting with eachother to create what we label as a pattern. Longrange forecasters have a shit job. How do you predict the outcome of an entire season when you dont even know what all the ingredients are? My hat goes off to anyone who dares to try and puts legit effort into it

I agree 100% with the last half of this paragraph. I think there's still a lot to learn...the ingredients and how to cook them together. As for the first half, we're just not at the point where we can pick out specifics like the tendency for wave spacing with a 1-5 month lead. Heck, even at 5d with the euro we tell people not to stress about the details yet. So it's a catch-22. You can't really "see" all of the synoptic nuances, chaos, "luck", whatever you want to call it, from 4 months out, but you kind of need to in order make seasonal snowfall predictions.

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Bottom line...we just don’t have enough knowledge yet, and/or a complete understanding on how it all works yet.  Hence what we don’t understand completely yet..we label chaos/luck.

Models tell us certain things from a distance..when they are off/wrong, our interpretation of the future pattern is going to be off.  Modeling was showing a weak Nino from the fall...that doesn’t seem to be working out, thus why this season isn’t behaving at all like a weak Nino.  But when that’s what modeling is showing 3 months prior...that’s all you have to go  on.  Hence we have so much still to learn.   

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The objective analog pattern matches from CPC or CIPS can help tell us how "lucky" or "unlucky" we are. I've been seeing plenty of pretty good years and good storms on the analog pages. 

When you have total ratters like 2015-2016 or 2011-2012, the analogs are filled with ratters. That hasn't been happening this year. So far, I would argue the pattern has been more similar to a composite average snowfall year for SNE or even slightly better than average. 

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The objective analog pattern matches from CPC or CIPS can help tell us how "lucky" or "unlucky" we are. I've been seeing plenty of pretty good years and good storms on the analog pages. 

When you have total ratters like 2015-2016 or 2011-2012, the analogs are filled with ratters. That hasn't been happening this year. So far, I would argue the pattern has been more similar to a composite average snowfall year for SNE or even slightly better than average

Precisely what I have been arguing. 

I get that sensible weather is the most important aspect, but temperatures are sensible, as well. I don't think my outlook is an "F" in the aggregate, however for snowfall it is. I get that this will piss some people off, but oh well. I'd say its a D+, right now....which is neck and neck with 2015-2016 super el nino for my worst work of the five that I've done. 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Precisely what I have been arguing. 

I get that sensible weather is the most important aspect, but temperatures are sensible, as well. I don't think my outlook is an "F" in the aggregate, however for snowfall it is. I get that this will piss some people off, but oh well. I'd say its a D+, right now....which is neck and neck with 2015-2016 super el nino for my worst work of the five that I've done. 

If you want to talk about sort doing ok in an awful pattern, 15-16 is it. I think my total was 40.9” with a 10.5” storm to boot. All amid an all time torch winter. How ‘bout them apples?

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If you want to talk about sort doing ok in an awful pattern, 15-16 is it. I think my total was 40.9” with a 10.5” storm to boot. All amid an all time torch winter. How ‘bout them apples?

That super el nino was not as horrendously east-based as 1997 and 1982....which is why I nailed the mid atl blizzard. I just went overboard and forested too much snow in NNE, and it was awful up there.

I know 1983 had the megalopolis deal, but I think odds are elevated when it isn't so extremely east based.

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is how most people think, and why most laymen don't attempt long range forecasting.

Luck or voodoo or bad or good Juju is just what we call it when we(as a science community) don’t understand why something happens in the presence of circumstances that should dictate the opposite.  I think that’s a better way to describe the luck/chaos aspect of this. 

 

Im sure there’s a scientific reason for what is happening now, despite the decent H5 set up.  The problem is, we don’t know exactly what that reason/causation is yet???  So we call it chaos etc etc... 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If you want to talk about sort doing ok in an awful pattern, 15-16 is it. I think my total was 40.9” with a 10.5” storm to boot. All amid an all time torch winter. How ‘bout them apples?

Exactly what we’re twlking about.  Nobody can put a finger on what made that work out ok...and this season sucking ass.   

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