raindancewx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 On 1/26/2019 at 11:03 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: @raindancewx Could you please link me to your outlook, as I was having trouble finding it. Thanks. It's somewhere in the original ENSO thread but this is the link I have readily available - I've been pretty happy with it. Major issues to date have been that I was too cold in the SE. I'd give the snow map a B+ so far. I didn't have the NC/VA zone that snowy for instance. Highs aren't bad either - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, raindancewx said: It's somewhere in the original ENSO thread but this is the link I have readily available - I've been pretty happy with it. Major issues to date have been that I was too cold in the SE. I'd give the snow map a B+ so far. I didn't have the NC/VA zone that snowy for instance. Highs aren't bad either - So far, I give you credit. Good job. I'll review it more closely later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1953-54 maybe a good analog..I'll have to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I’ve been pondering ..I think with AGW.. if you’re analogging say 68-69 winter ... you have to factor in today’s climate ... so the gradient snows have to be shifted north of where they were in 68-69 of that makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Nice cutter right at end of and after Super bowl w Rains to Montreal Sunday late nite into Monday (Feb 4) then as modeled another Rainer that travels from Great Lakes into NNE someone lol make this stop Just torch us please not torture us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve been pondering ..I think with AGW.. if you’re analogging say 68-69 winter ... you have to factor in today’s climate ... so the gradient snows have to be shifted north of where they were in 68-69 of that makes sense That's not really how it works though. Even over a seasonal time scale snowfall is like throwing dice. It's still plenty cold enough to snow in New England (and points south) but sometimes the numbers don't come up in our favor. Climate change will, over time, load those dice so that southern areas are more prone to the dice not coming up in their favor. Could climate change make gradient winter's snowfall move north, sure, but that doesn't mean you always shift gradient patterns north from now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 34 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That's not really how it works though. Even over a seasonal time scale snowfall is like throwing dice. It's still plenty cold enough to snow in New England (and points south) but sometimes the numbers don't come up in our favor. Climate change will, over time, load those dice so that southern areas are more prone to the dice not coming up in their favor. Could climate change make gradient winter's snowfall move north, sure, but that doesn't mean you always shift gradient patterns north from now on. I think that’s already happening this winter whether folks want to admit it or not. Sad but true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think that’s already happening this winter whether folks want to admit it or not. Sad but true This definitely is not some kind of new normal. Even the most generous attribution study wouldn't explain more than +/-20% of event to seasonal duration snowfalls. We're talking less than a foot of snow for any of the big 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSurge Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 F- here. I’ve only seen a handful of flakes since the November storm & the snow that fell then didn’t last until sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 As of Jan 28, Raindancewx's forecast has verified the best. A good lesson that people shouldn't be so dismissive of a forecast because it doesn't show you what you want. Still 6 weeks to go, will be interesting to see if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: As of Jan 28, Raindancewx's forecast has verified the best. A good lesson that people shouldn't be so dismissive of a forecast because it doesn't show you what you want. Still 6 weeks to go, will be interesting to see if it holds. I didn't dismiss his ideas for the first half, I dismissed them for the second half because imo the data did not support it...not because it isn't what I wanted. Still alot of winter left. While I do feel he brings some value to the table, given the same circumstances, I'll bet against him again and probably be right. Just the way it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I didn't dismiss his ideas for the first half, I dismissed them for the second half because imo the data did not support it...not because it isn't what I wanted. Still alot of winter left. While I do feel he brings some value to the table, given the same circumstances, I'll bet against him again and probably be right. Just the way it is. I think if one were to plot and look at H5 compared to his years, it may not be a good match. Govt shutdown FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 11 hours ago, OceanStWx said: This definitely is not some kind of new normal. Even the most generous attribution study wouldn't explain more than +/-20% of event to seasonal duration snowfalls. We're talking less than a foot of snow for any of the big 4. I’ve tried to reason with him, but he stuck with that notion. AGW is just not the reason here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I mean, it goes without saying, but to this point, winter has been an F and it’s not close. Honestly not sure how anyone in SNE, especially east could feel differently. Unless you are counting on a blizzard or two (I’m not) this years virtually a lock to finish below normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I mean, it goes without saying, but to this point, winter has been an F and it’s not close. Honestly not sure how anyone in SNE, especially east could feel differently. Unless you are counting on a blizzard or two (I’m not) this years virtually a lock to finish below normal. I'd call it a D to D-. Overall it's been cold fairly consistently, with little snow. I would add that we had snow near Thanksgiving (around 9" here) and also a little snow on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 AGW isn’t causing ORD to have their coldest period in decades this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think that’s already happening this winter whether folks want to admit it or not. Sad but true If you're buying that, you may as well save time and just leave things installed. I'm scoring this as a D. It will likely rise to a D+ if we can verify warning snows this week. There's still time to improve beyond that, but the way this season has unfolded leaves little hope that there will be a made-dash recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 For those tracking down the end of this misery--- We're gaining over 2-minutes of sunlight/day at this point and a daily increase of sun angle of .3*. Of course, both these rates will be increasing dramatically as we had toward the equinox. In the meantime, let's enjoy February shall we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2.4" for MET Winter as I head into February and 8.4" since November 15th. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I think if one were to plot and look at H5 compared to his years, it may not be a good match. Govt shutdown FTL. Well, his temp composite is not bad....he has some cold seasons mixed in, like 1976-77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: These meltdowns will continue to be epicosity Not enough to take a day off, but enough to urinate all over the commute and mess the car and shoes up. Fuc# you, ma nature....and happy venereal disease. Take this god foresaken Scott Baio winter and shove up your a$$. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 They are becoming more prevalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: They are becoming more prevalent. But at least the skiers can ski...and god bless each and every one of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Ray is melting deliciously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 LMAO.....We're coming off the tracks. But it's warranted. This winter to date has blown Chow big time. Any low 80's coming up for Feb like last year....hope so. Let's try for all time lowest snowfall total this year. I'm at 12.75" on the season. Even 11-12 had about 18" for the total snow for my area that crap year, maybe this winter becomes the New all time Ratter over that one???? Bring on the Rat!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Ray is melting deliciously I don't even want to look at the long range....those deceitful euro weeklies and seasonals have done nothing but suck a$$...but the OP will nail a track over KBOS from day 8. Then we all lick euro chode for another year like nothing happened. Dandy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: But at least the skiers can ski...and god bless each and every one of us. I've been reserved to the fact that what i have seen so far this winter looks to continue, Not a pack type of winter up this way here locally, But i have the luxury of going 20-50 Mi NW to reach the promise land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I hear day 10 looks real good per scoots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't even want to look at the long range....those deceitful euro weeklies and seasonals have done nothing but suck a$$...but the OP will nail a track over KBOS from day 8. Then we all lick euro chode for another year like nothjng happened. Dandy. I've said this before...but then everybody on here comes to the defense of the mighty Euro every time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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