NorEastermass128 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 DISCLAIMER: I’m starting this thread early just to chronicle our frustrations in a winter that finds new ways NOT to snow. Hopefully in a month or so, we can look back at this thread and laugh at how unnecessary/ridiculous it was in the first place. For now, we watch... BOS sits at 0.2” going into January. Pattern looks bleak for snow through 1/15-1/20. We should break our streak of bad luck later in January with a more favorable pattern...hopefully making this thread obsolete. If for some reason the back half of this winter throws us a curve and peters out before getting started, we can root for futility in this thread. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but futility in BOS is under 10”. Something like 9.6”. Hopefully we exceed that figure by 5x or more. Time will tell. We can come back to this thread as needed. Hopefully not. Here’s to a 14/15 comeback! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Ray will flip his lid when he sees this thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Great thread.......I'm all aboard the futility bus......hilarious how that November storm is the big daddy of this winter..... LOL WINTER OF YORE.......ITS THE WINTER OF BORE..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 31, 2018 Author Share Posted December 31, 2018 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Ray will flip his lid when he sees this thread. Haha I thought about that and wondered if I should wait and then thought nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 The Hallmark of a bad winter..... favorable patterns keep being "2 weeks out".... Even if it does start to be good in late January big whoop de Doo. We've all been waiting for a winter 2015 that starts in mid December so we can actually keep the pack around all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Lol, so this is the NE equivalent of the MA Panic Room? Should be entertaining. I keep reminding myself that many the best winter months of my life were preceded by garbage patterns and much wringing of hands/pulling out of hair. I expect by February this thread will be forgotten at the bottom of the page and we will be singing a much different tune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 2 hours ago, Whineminster said: The Hallmark of a bad winter..... favorable patterns keep being "2 weeks out".... Even if it does start to be good in late January big whoop de Doo. We've all been waiting for a winter 2015 that starts in mid December so we can actually keep the pack around all winter. Not specifically arguing your point but 2014-15 started in late January and is (for Worcester on east) considered the winter of our lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 I definitely in a small way want to see the melts coming from futility....it would be amazing to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: I definitely in a small way want to see the melts coming from futility....it would be amazing to watch. The melts coming? 1/2 of you have already lost it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 31, 2018 Author Share Posted December 31, 2018 48 minutes ago, Hoth said: Lol, so this is the NE equivalent of the MA Panic Room? Should be entertaining. I keep reminding myself that many the best winter months of my life were preceded by garbage patterns and much wringing of hands/pulling out of hair. I expect by February this thread will be forgotten at the bottom of the page and we will be singing a much different tune. Responding to your last sentence...…..that's the hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 31, 2018 Author Share Posted December 31, 2018 December officially skunked. 0.0" here for the month. First 2-3 weeks of January looking unremarkable too. We rat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 I'm still on the Ray train...he is not wrong yet! But...I have to think the LR forecasters at NCEP aren't blithering idiots, and they forecasted wall-to-wall Pacific crap. Also, every private forecaster, blogger, etc. that I follow called for a cold stormy winter. I worry when the herd stampedes towards one side of the boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 It’s starting to get that look, deny if you want, but it is what it is. I bet most major SNE stations finish the season 15-25% below normal snowfall, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 6 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: The melts coming? 1/2 of you have already lost it. Yeah they'll look pretty foolish by March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s starting to get that look, deny if you want, but it is what it is. I bet most major SNE stations finish the season 15-25% below normal snowfall, at least. Mehdoki? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 8 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: The melts coming? 1/2 of you have already lost it. Bob acts like not really caring if it snows is normal for the board. Most of us are sick. That is the norm. even some Mets try to keep it together for their reputation but they aren’t happy voicing displeasure with the roll of the dice of the winter patterns so far is therapeutic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s starting to get that look, deny if you want, but it is what it is. I bet most major SNE stations finish the season 15-25% below normal snowfall, at least. Maybe it’s time for a annual snow “competition/ contest” see what people really believe between the tea leaves is likely to fall thru April at big 4 of SNE. Maybe start this in about 5 days when the MJO provides a little more clarity as to wether the gfs / or euro is more correct with MJO roundy plots if i was setting lines currently I would have O/U ORH 54 BOS 39 PVD 34 BDL 41 Interested to see if Dentrite / Mets would be confident on either side of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 25 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Bob acts like not really caring if it snows is normal for the board. Most of us are sick. That is the norm. even some Mets try to keep it together for their reputation but they aren’t happy voicing displeasure with the roll of the dice of the winter patterns so far is therapeutic Yep, y’all are just weird to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 34 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yep, y’all are just weird to me. I’ve come to your dark side. Lots of snow? Great. None at all? Even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’ve come to your dark side. Lots of snow? Great. None at all? Even better. Welcome to the Dark Side my young Padawan. Now go forth a recruit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Is this the reverse psychology thread? If we expect the worst, we end up with epicosity. Sign me up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: O/U ORH 54 —over (57) BOS 39 — under (23) PVD 34 —under (32) BDL 41– under (35) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Maybe it’s time for a annual snow “competition/ contest” see what people really believe between the tea leaves is likely to fall thru April at big 4 of SNE. Maybe start this in about 5 days when the MJO provides a little more clarity as to wether the gfs / or euro is more correct with MJO roundy plots if i was setting lines currently I would have O/U ORH 54 BOS 39 PVD 34 BDL 41 Interested to see if Dentrite / Mets would be confident on either side of that Under for all 5 ORH 39 BOS 27 PVD 24 BDL 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: O/U ORH 54 O BOS 39 U PVD 34 O BDL 41 O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Maybe it’s time for a annual snow “competition/ contest” see what people really believe between the tea leaves is likely to fall thru April at big 4 of SNE. Maybe start this in about 5 days when the MJO provides a little more clarity as to wether the gfs / or euro is more correct with MJO roundy plots if i was setting lines currently I would have O/U ORH 54 BOS 39 PVD 34 BDL 41 Interested to see if Dentrite / Mets would be confident on either side of that Yeah i posted a 50" O-U for ORH the other day and left it out there for ORH_wxman to comment on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 hours ago, scoob40 said: Yeah i posted a 50" O-U for ORH the other day and left it out there for ORH_wxman to comment on. I must've missed it. Right now I'd still take over on 50" for ORH. Climo from here on out is 51" and there's already over 9" on the season. So the expected total snowfall for ORH right now would be about 60" if we followed climo from here on out. Hell, even 2006-2007 had 5" on the entire season on 1/31 and still finished with 49.7" and we didn't exactly nail jackpots in the 2nd half of that winter. If we're still screwing around with 10" or so near the end of January then I'd probably change it to taking the under. But weaker El Niño 2nd half tends to be pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 hours ago, dendrite said: 5 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Maybe it’s time for a annual snow “competition/ contest” see what people really believe between the tea leaves is likely to fall thru April at big 4 of SNE. Maybe start this in about 5 days when the MJO provides a little more clarity as to wether the gfs / or euro is more correct with MJO roundy plots if i was setting lines currently I would have O/U ORH 54 BOS 39 PVD 34 BDL 41 Interested to see if Dentrite / Mets would be confident on either side of that Over on all four. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 9 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: I'm still on the Ray train...he is not wrong yet! But...I have to think the LR forecasters at NCEP aren't blithering idiots, and they forecasted wall-to-wall Pacific crap. Also, every private forecaster, blogger, etc. that I follow called for a cold stormy winter. I worry when the herd stampedes towards one side of the boat. They aren't blithering idiots. They factored in the El Nino. Many others did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Futility? Seriously? on 01/01?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 14 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: They aren't blithering idiots. They factored in the El Nino. Many others did not. They aren't idiots...but they factored it in incorrectly. Just like they did the la nina last season...I explained why their thoughts were flawed in November, and reiterated why they were in March. I'll do it again this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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