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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va

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I updated on the coming pattern if any of you guys are interested....pretty much just an extension of previous thoughts.

Don't be dissuaded by the miller B emphasis. I think you guys will do fine, as evidenced by the weekend.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/01/two-weeks-remaining-severe-second-half.html

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20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I updated on the coming pattern if any of you guys are interested....pretty much just an extension of previous thoughts.

Don't be dissuaded by the miller B emphasis. I think you guys will do fine, as evidenced by the weekend.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/01/two-weeks-remaining-severe-second-half.html

I just want one EPIC snowstorm that blasts the megalopolis so I can tag all the tools on twitter that spent months arguing about the type of nino and ask "so is this a modoki or basin wide blizzard?" 

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39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I just want one EPIC snowstorm that blasts the megalopolis so I can tag all the tools on twitter that spent months arguing about the type of nino and ask "so is this a modoki or basin wide blizzard?" 

If we get the huge second half, then I think that answers the question.

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9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I updated on the coming pattern if any of you guys are interested....pretty much just an extension of previous thoughts.

Don't be dissuaded by the miller B emphasis. I think you guys will do fine, as evidenced by the weekend.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/01/two-weeks-remaining-severe-second-half.html

40/70 Benchmark wrote: "Considering the evolution of the first half of the season, it is exceedingly difficult for the beleaguered calvary of winter aficionados to elude the perception of old man winter as an aging middle aged boxer, flailing away in vain during the final moments of a banal career."

This is great stuff! I like to start my mornings with a good laugh, and just hitting the "like" button doesn't do this justice. Thanks for posting. 

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6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yeah me too...theres been a signal since D15 if you can buy a signal even from that range . 

well when the pattern is that favorable...there have been "signals" from that range before.  I saw "the look" from 15 days out before the Feb snow blitz in 2010.  It was in a different type of pattern but I was posting up in the PA forum in 2014 (lived in central PA for a year) about 2 weeks before we got absolutely buried with 3 straight snows in February that it looked great long range.  We had been missing most of the January snows you were getting to the south.  Again the 2016 threat showed up as a threat at long range.  It's rare but given how good the pattern is its possible this is showing its hand that far out.  Details will determine our specific outcome and those are a LONG way from being locked in though.  

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Something isn't right about the pattern.. 6z GFS ensembles had +NAO showing up at the end, and 12z has a strong low going over the top near the Hudson bay- The medium range evolution doesn't seem right either, it seems like it wants to blast +NAO. All the ridging near Alaska, western Canada and the arctic is solitary, probably only connected to the Stratosphere and looks more like a transition than anything else. I fear for the February trend since 2013 which has been blowtorch/SE ridge. 

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Just now, Cobalt said:

Interesting that it has snow within 50 miles of the LP. Probably something to do with the low resolution part of the 240hr+ GFS

There is high potential at that time frame, but hopefully not rain.

And like wow, a 968 at that position, incredible.

So, right there that should raise an eyebrow. And all those isobars, not sure the last time there was a modeled event from the GFS in that position below 970 mb and below 40 degrees North lattitude at this lead.   

 

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