January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[RevWarReenactor]

The 06Z GFS is hilarious, suppression city with the next few storms. Richmond gets feets and feets while DC smokes cirrus.

[frd]

 

Interesting animation showing the impacts over NA from the SSWE. 

Still ongoing, and with greater impacts for us to arrive later in the month.  

 

 

 

 

 

[frd]

1 minute ago, Mdecoy said:

The 06Z GFS is hilarious, suppression city with the next few storms. Richmond gets feets and feets while DC smokes cirrus.

Everyone is on edge from December. If those outcomes happen many here would be ditching this hobby. Maybe it will be a Orlando winter.    

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

The 06Z GFS is hilarious, suppression city with the next few storms. Richmond gets feets and feets while DC smokes cirrus.

DT has been hammering this hard how he feels Richmond South could be ground zero next 4+ weeks with a sharp cutoff North of there. Says the upcoming pattern is speaking to him.

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Just when you think the look at long range can't get any better it says 'Hold my beer'. Once again the overnight EPS has outdone itself. Looking at the 5 day mean at the end of the run we are seeing better height builds over the pole. Better heights and ridging over into Greenland. Stronger bridging between the EPO/PNA ridge and the Russian ridging. And the looks of some energy in the SW with potential split flow setting up through there.

eta: Eps is really trying hard to set up that three way bridge over the pole.

Intersting three way set up.  Think about that as you head to the promised land aka Vegas. 

[BristowWx]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

DT has been hammering this hard how he feels Richmond South could be ground zero next 4+ weeks with a sharp cutoff North of there. Says the upcoming pattern is speaking to him.

Of course he says that.  Secretly he wishes we fail.  Every post that says Richmond south or nothing north of Richmond has a subliminal message that says screw you DC/Balt.  

[showmethesnow]

11 minutes ago, frd said:

The early morning GEFS looks good for snow oppurtunities moving forward in the long range. The HL are really transforming to match the weeklies.    

GEFS has a pretty good signal for the 20-22nd time frame. As far as suppression the pv was the one thing I mentioned we would need to keep an eye on. If it stays around the Hudson Bay we should be fine as it leaves us on the front side of the Mid-latitude trough where systems can amplify and come up the coast. If it shifts to the east as we see later in the run then you do have to be concerned with possible suppression.

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

DT has been hammering this hard how he feels Richmond South could be ground zero next 4+ weeks with a sharp cutoff North of there. Says the upcoming pattern is speaking to him.

He could be right 

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

He could be right 

Absolutely.  Last storm proved that.  This one I think will get further north but result similar although not as far south with the good stuff beyond S VA.  

[aldie 22]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Absolutely.  Last storm proved that.  This one I think will get further north but result similar although not as far south with the good stuff beyond S VA.  

Nobody knows including him...you could  be right 

[snowmagnet]

10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

He could be right 

He could be right, but I don’t know how many times I’ve heard him say “there is no way this thing is going north”.... and it went north. 

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

DT has been hammering this hard how he feels Richmond South could be ground zero next 4+ weeks with a sharp cutoff North of there. Says the upcoming pattern is speaking to him.

 

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Of course he says that.  Secretly he wishes we fail.  Every post that says Richmond south or nothing north of Richmond has a subliminal message that says screw you DC/Balt.  

Though DT has his own agenda I do share his concerns a touch. This is the one possible outcome that could ruin the possible setup we are headed into if we do in fact see the pv get displaced far to the south and planted over top of us. But even if we do see this, the suppression could be curtailed quite a bit by the active southern stream we have had this winter. In fact a deep drop south could just as likely be a plus as a negative depending on placement. Honestly I think what we see happen with the pv placement is still very much up in the air so it is only borrowing trouble worrying about it.

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Nobody knows including him...you could  be right 

Today willl be important day to see where we are headed.  Home with a sick kid and a list of shit to do by my wife...so I will be drinking early and model watching

[Ralph Wiggum]

19 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

He could be right 

I guess we will see if this seasonal tendency thing is real with the coming weekend threat. What sucks about seasonal tendencies is even with a pattern shift the same general theme often presents itself. I dont necessarily agree with the sharp cutoff thing tho certainly possible....but based on the LR guidance I do have a strong suspicion on where things are headed in terms of apparent weather.

[frd]

1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

He could be right, but I don’t know how many times I’ve heard him say “there is no way this thing is going north”.... and it went north. 

True, we have seen it both ways really. Seems last 3 years more coastal storms grazing the beaches and storms not moving North, when beyond 3 years ago storms tended to move more North then forecasted. 

As for DT, in a wildly anomolous blocking pattern snow in the deep South makes sense. 

But, when folks say it is just too cold or it is suppression, many times it is simply timing, sheared vorts, upstream effects, less phasing, so many things might be included in the word suppression, that some new folks just think the cold is pushing the storms South. 

The pattern improves going forward, but the forecasts to make will likely be complex. 

 

[frd]

7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

Though DT has his own agenda I do share his concerns a touch. This is the one possible outcome that could ruin the possible setup we are headed into if we do in fact see the pv get displaced far to the south and planted over top of us. But even if we do see this, the suppression could be curtailed quite a bit by the active southern stream we have had this winter. In fact a deep drop south could just as likely be a plus as a negative depending on placement. Honestly I think what we see happen with the pv placement is still very much up in the air so it is only borrowing trouble worrying about it.

Playing Devil's advocate here it we dont score and VA., NC. and SC do score, do you think New England is left out to? 

If things indeed go down like what DT is envisioning then we smoke cirrus and Boston smokes blue skies. I would tend to think nada up there, but what do you think. 

 

 

 

[aldie 22]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I guess we will see if this seasonal tendency thing is real with the coming weekend threat. What sucks about seasonal tendencies is even with a pattern shift the same general theme often presents itself. I dont necessarily agree with the sharp cutoff thing tho certainly possible....but based on the LR guidance I do have a strong suspicion on where things are headed in terms of apparent weather.

Ray won't be happy 

[eurojosh]

On 1/4/2019 at 2:44 AM, eurojosh said:

All. In.

Just sayin

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

Playing Devil's advocate here it we dont score and VA., NC. and SC do score, do you think New England is left out to? 

If things indeed go down like what DT is envisioning then we smoke cirrus and Boston smokes blue skies. I would tend to think nada up there, but what do you think. 

 

 

 

Doubt it.  NE is never left out.  They can get NS events and late blooming Milller Bs in March, and then just mystery snow that pops up out of no where.  With a longer season they can rock much later than us so in the end do fine. 

[showmethesnow]

Just now, frd said:

Playing Devil's advocate here it we dont score and VA., NC. and SC do score, do you think New England is left out to? 

If things indeed go down like what DT is envisioning then we smoke cirrus and Boston smokes blue skies. I would tend to think nada up there, but what do you think. 

 

 

 

With how we could fail in the coming period, pv dropping down, I would say the interior NE wouldn't be happy campers. I wouldn't rule out the coastal regions though as they could get some recurving love from systems that amplify out to sea.

To be clear though, while I do somewhat expect to see a displacement south of the pv my concerns on this being detrimental to our chances are low at this point just from the different things I am seeing and how I believe that displacement will evolve. Doesn't mean I am right, just means I won't be panicking until it is pretty obvious that we are in trouble.

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Doubt it.  NE is never left out.  They can get NS events and late blooming Milller Bs in March, and then just mystery snow that pops up out of no where.  With a longer season they can rock much later than us so in the end do fine. 

2009-2010 ring a bell.  

But yeah, they always seem to pull it out of their tush, don't they. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

 

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

With how we could fail in the coming period, pv dropping down, I would say the interior NE wouldn't be happy campers. I wouldn't rule out the coastal regions though as they could get some recurving love from systems that amplify out to sea.

To be clear though, while I do somewhat expect to see a displacement south of the pv my concerns on this being detrimental to our chances are low at this point just from the different things I am seeing and how I believe that displacement will evolve. Doesn't mean I am right, just means I won't be panicking until it is pretty obvious that we are in trouble.

Agreed....the suppression thing is merely speculation for now until we see how the pattern evolves. Merely a possibility. I will say the control euro 45 day snow map doesnt scream loads of snow for the deep south . Not that it's right but I'm not seeing a strong signal there.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

2009-2010 ring a bell.  

But yeah, they always seem to pull it out of their tush, don't they. 

And what part of NE matters too. ME or CT...BOS or Albany.  Big differences we need this weekend to work out in some fashion.  We have hunted long enough and need a kill shot so we can eat something. 

[poolz1]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

With how we could fail in the coming period, pv dropping down, I would say the interior NE wouldn't be happy campers. I wouldn't rule out the coastal regions though as they could get some recurving love from systems that amplify out to sea.

To be clear though, while I do somewhat expect to see a displacement south of the pv my concerns on this being detrimental to our chances are low at this point just from the different things I am seeing and how I believe that displacement will evolve. Doesn't mean I am right, just means I won't be panicking until it is pretty obvious that we are in trouble.

A good example of too much of a good thing....Extreme 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

To be clear though, while I do somewhat expect to see a displacement south of the pv my concerns on this being detrimental to our chances are low at this point just from the different things I am seeing and how I believe that displacement will evolve. Doesn't mean I am right, just means I won't be panicking until it is pretty obvious that we are in trouble.

Thanks, I am excited to see how things progress. I feel even March might be able to deliver for us this year. Some analogs and historic data support a huge event.  

For now, I would like some Jan snow as an appetizer at least.  Maybe when the Pac goes to the more traditional Nino and we get the better look we score soon after.

As for the weekend event HM stated a day ago, he never was gung ho on the threat, he stated too much going on right now to feel confident and Earthlight mentioned the same thing. 

We are close but not there yet .  

 

 

[frd]

2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

A good example of too much of a good thing....Extreme 

We need a WAR , thats incredible to think we could go to that. 

Boring !!!!

I am fed up with 2 degress and dry. 

Last early Jan sucked here, while the deep South got hit with snow. 

 

 

[poolz1]

9 minutes ago, frd said:

We need a WAR , thats incredible to think we could go to that. 

Boring !!!!

I am fed up with 2 degress and dry. 

Last early Jan sucked here, while the deep South got hit with snow. 

 

 

Yeah...I have no interest in that panel.  Unless....5 days later the pattern has relaxed and we are staring down a KU!  

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

DT has been hammering this hard how he feels Richmond South could be ground zero next 4+ weeks with a sharp cutoff North of there. Says the upcoming pattern is speaking to him.

I do think the SE and southern MA will have the highest % snowfall above their seasonal averages when all is said and done.  I think the entire eastcoast will be AN when all is said and done.

[frd]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I do think the SE and southern MA will have the highest % snowfall above their seasonal averages when all is said and done.  I think the entire eastcoast will be AN when all is said and done.

If that is the case JB's snowfall map of 167% of normal is the real winner ! 

Wow to Boston's snowfall so far, some there are expecting a 2015 turn around after Jan 20 th.

I am fine with a Feb 2010 for us, actually I like that December 2009 for MBY. Measured almost 25 inches.   

 

[frd]

8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I do think the SE and southern MA will have the highest % snowfall above their seasonal averages when all is said and done.  I think the entire eastcoast will be AN when all is said and done.

Thoughts on the SOI ? 

I like to see the 30 day average move to negative, but that might be a reach. 

Someone mentioned a rise up and then back down, also Don S. provided some great stats on this recently.  

I would think we see it turn back down.   

SOI values for 8 Jan, 2019
Average SOI for last 30 days	5.05
Average SOI for last 90 days	3.98
Daily contribution to SOI calculation	0.15