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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

This has to be the most epic -ao/nao panel i've ever seen. Possible that 09-10 had something similar but holy crap this is an extreme block

SBgWpwi.png

I find it hard to believe that won’t feature some snow.  That’s like movong the North Pole over the MA.  

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Can already see the pattern breaking down by day 46....uh oh (in Bob's voice)

B8d96b1.png

In all seriousness....this was a nice run to come home to.  Epic almost doesn't do it justice.  The most stable look to the weeklies I have ever seen....in years past even the crap patterns show signs of life somewhere in the run....wall to wall blocking for our meat and potatoes part of met winter.

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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This has to be the most epic -ao/nao panel i've ever seen. Possible that 09-10 had something similar but holy crap this is an extreme block

SBgWpwi.png

I hesitate to ask this because ya might troll me for the rest of the season, but because I'm still learning, real question: Have there been winters where there was TOO much blocking? (so that everything was far south? I mean I couldn't tell whether you were serious about that, lol)

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I hesitate to ask this because ya might troll me for the rest of the season, but because I'm still learning, real question: Have there been winters where there was TOO much blocking? (so that everything was far south? I mean I couldn't tell whether you were serious about that, lol)

That panel right there would be congrats SC.

eta- more like Savannah, GA

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I hesitate to ask this because ya might troll me for the rest of the season, but because I'm still learning, real question: Have there been winters where there was TOO much blocking? (so that everything was far south? I mean I couldn't tell whether you were serious about that, lol)

Yes there can be. That's why 2009/2010 was epic down here and the North East missed out on some of the action. If it's too strong it could force the storm track through south/north carolina.

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I hesitate to ask this because ya might troll me for the rest of the season, but because I'm still learning, real question: Have there been winters where there was TOO much blocking? (so that everything was far south? I mean I couldn't tell whether you were serious about that, lol)

Oh yeah. It happens occasionally. That was one of the big concerns with 09-10. But everything just lined up perfect for our area. That map Bob just posted would most likely mean very cold and dry. The good thing is once that pattern starts breaking down we can get hammered as well. 

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7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I hesitate to ask this because ya might troll me for the rest of the season, but because I'm still learning, real question: Have there been winters where there was TOO much blocking? (so that everything was far south? I mean I couldn't tell whether you were serious about that, lol)

I will take my chances with too much blocking any time.  We are too far south to really worry about that on a large scale.  Yes we lose to our south but most times north trends and temp issues are way more prevalent.  

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Just now, Chris78 said:

Yes there can be. That's why 2009/2010 was epic down here and the North East missed out on some of the action. If it's too strong it could force the storm track through south/north carolina.

The stronger El Nino that year also had something to do with it as well I believe.  We do better in moderate El Nino, even low end strong I believe. 

That 46 day snowfall does not concern me. We have some of our best projected indices in the long range, we should score. 

Not too mention, a possible HA event or too during any phase change. Maybe that even happens a couple times. later Jan and Feb .

I will take my chances on a high impact storm.   

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12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I hesitate to ask this because ya might troll me for the rest of the season, but because I'm still learning, real question: Have there been winters where there was TOO much blocking? (so that everything was far south? I mean I couldn't tell whether you were serious about that, lol)

There was at least 1 in the 70s. Cant remember the exact year. Bay froze over but barely snowed. One of the walking encyclopedias on here can share details. Overall, one of the last things i'm going to worry about is too much blocking. It doesnt even make the worry list honestly

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This weekend looked like a lock for a rainstorm just a few days ago. It will be interesting to see what happens with the next precip maker in line next week. That is also showing up as rain but has already started to trend colder. Very interesting transition phase we're in. It's pretty rare to go from a stable pac puke pattern right into one with threats on the front side. 

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5 minutes ago, frd said:

The stronger El Nino that year also had something to do with it as well I believe.  We do better in moderate El Nino, even low end strong I believe. 

That 46 day snowfall does not concern me. We have some of our best projected indices in the long range, we should score. 

Not too mention, a possible HA event or too during any phase change. Maybe that even happens a couple times. later Jan and Feb .

I will take my chances on a high impact storm.   

The 46 day ens mean is really good. I've never seen back to back 10"+ means on the weeklies unless there is a good event inside of 15 days. The last 2 weekly runs are a the best I've ever seen with pattern and snowfall output. 

With long rage stuff it's always best to only look at h5 and make educated guesses. I can't imagine not getting at least one substantial storm in Feb if blocking materializes as advertised 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The 46 day ens mean is really good. I've never seen back to back 10"+ means on the weeklies unless there is a good event inside of 15 days. The last 2 weekly runs are a the best I've ever seen with pattern and snowfall output. 

With long rage stuff it's always best to only look at h5 and make educated guesses. I can't imagine not getting at least one substantial storm in Feb if blocking materializes as advertised 

Thanks, you made my night, coming from you that is a positive! Hopefully we all score, and what a turn of events, right.

I know we have nothing to prove for it yet, but honestly about a week ago or more folks were really cancelling winter. 

If things pan out even close to the weeklies we will remember this late blooming winter for a long time. I agree we have to get something. 

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