January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

 

He always finds a way to save face. Has he ever admitted to being flat out wrong?

Once

[CAPE]

29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Chuck says Eastern US warming and nasty pattern ahead though.

Chuck is like an astable multivibrator.

His thoughts are constantly in oscillation.

[showmethesnow]

50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Did someone say January 20th lol

But wasn't that for the pattern flip? Didn't hear anything about a big snow.  Besides, who came out with the 20th first? You or @C.A.P.E.? 

46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

SNOW 

Oh, I know it means snow. Was just curious how much. Was hoping our statistician (hint,hint PSU ) could throw us out some numbers. 

 

All joking aside. You really have to love where we are sitting at this point. Really hoping and praying that the rug doesn't get pulled out on us because this is starting to have that look and feel of one of those long duration periods that with a little luck we talk about for a long time to come.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Chuck is like an astable multivibrator.

His thoughts are constantly in oscillation.

I thought it was because his energies were low?

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

But wasn't that for the pattern flip? Didn't hear anything about a big snow.  Besides, who came out with the 20th first? You or @C.A.P.E.? 

Oh, I know it means snow. Was just curious how much. Was hoping our statistician (hint,hint PSU ) could throw us out some numbers. 

 

All joking aside. You really have to love where we are sitting at this point. Really hoping and praying that the rug doesn't get pulled out on us because this is starting to have that look and feel of one of those long duration periods that with a little luck we talk about for a long time to come.

I think we were both referring to timing for a pattern flip. I suppose you get "credit" for sniffing out the storm potential. 

eta- Its nice things appear to have moved forward in time. Back when we were stuck in PAC puke with only minor hints of change on the guidance, a flip to a workable pattern between the 15-20th was probably optimistic. Now we have have a decent storm threat before the 15th, and by the 20th we might be looking at the front end of a classic favorable (and stable) h5 set up.

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Seeing a pattern.....those that phase are tucked lows which would yield thermal issues...the guidance that misses the phase are weak sauce. Not sure we want a phase unless we thread the needle with timing and location irt the phasing. I mean...I will take my chances if we want something bigger but at this point I'm pulling for the weak sauce honestly just to get snow for most. A phase could still be a s-r type event however.

Depends where you are. I definitely want a phase. Just not over Ocean City. We all know that anything that jumps directly over us is going to be crap. We either need no NS so we can get a moderate overrun event. Or a full phase south of us with a jump to the SC coast. We will probably end up missing this one. But I figured we would have to see NE get plastered at least once before we saw anything good down here.

[aldie 22]

I'm not biting on any snow chances until Wes chimes in.

[WxUSAF]

Ukie has some light snow for us apparently.  More than Euro, less than GFS.  I'd certainly like to see the Euro move toward a stronger system at 12z.  When Euro/EPS aren't biting and everything else is honking and we're inside ~6 days, that makes me nervous.  Plus I'm also in a "I'll believe it will snow when I'm shoveling" mood.  

[psuhoffman]

Surface track on the 6z gfs is very similar to the November 15 storm. 

Obviously in January results could be better. 

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Depends where you are. I definitely want a phase. Just not over Ocean City. We all know that anything that jumps directly over us is going to be crap. We either need no NS so we can get a moderate overrun event. Or a full phase south of us with a jump to the SC coast. We will probably end up missing this one. But I figured we would have to see NE get plastered at least once before we saw anything good down here.

Interesting take from Mount Holly on the potential, and the current differences in the models.

This sets the stage for a rather complex scenario for the weekend.
Upstream, highly amplified ridging will occur in the western U.S.,
with models generally depicting a northern-stream system lifting well
north into Canada late in the week while a southern-stream component
struggles to move through the ridge in the Southwest. Meanwhile, a
downstream northern perturbation will be digging into the eastern
North America trough. However, models are at odds as to how strong
this perturbation is and where this digging will occur. The GFS
occasionally hints at this process occurring in the Great Lakes
region Friday night and Saturday, which would be sufficiently far
west to allow for phasing with the advancing southern-stream
perturbation before it moves offshore. The ECMWF is considerably
farther east (generally east of the Great Lakes), so the phasing
with the southern-stream system generally occurs after moving
offshore.

The ECMWF has been reasonably consistent the past few cycles,
whereas the GFS has been quite variable. However, given the
complexities of the setup, the volatility of the GFS is
statistically meaningful. The ensemble means more closely match the
ECMWF than the GFS, but the deterministic GFS is also a more extreme
solution (which would ultimately make it more likely to deviate from
the ensemble mean). This makes me question if the ECMWF is a
substantially more likely solution than the GFS. Given the phasing
the ECMWF eventually develops, my suspicion is the damped ensemble
solutions are more a result of model variability than higher
probability.

[nj2va]

Hate to be that guy but can we try to keep the banter in the banter thread?  Now that we have a legit threat to track + LR pattern tracking, lets keep this to model disco.

[psuhoffman]

47 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

 

He always finds a way to save face. Has he ever admitted to being flat out wrong?

In fairness "he" is never right or wrong about anything. The ecmwf is. 

ETA:  oops sorry NJ you are right...it's getting real finally.  Time to take the banter to banter.  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So when you guys were tracking that, what did the models look like inside of those 3 days? The ns vort trended stronger and stronger? Lol (or later and later?)

And what keeps baffling me is why 2016 was so easy to track. Why is it we didn't have to worry about ns vorts or anything like that? (And why is such almost seamless tracking a rarity?) What was it that had Wes being bullish on the threat even a week before? (Is there a certain amount of blocking necessary to keep the ns vorts from disrupting?)

 

8 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

It just trended into a bad phase. 3+ days out we were thinking 6-10" then models started degrading the phase timing and qpf was shrinking. It's how it goes sometimes. We've benefitted from many timely phases too. It's a numbers game.

2016 had a west based nao block. When flow is blocked and slows down models can be more accurate from longer leads. Less speed = less chaos. If we get a stable block this winter you'll notice a difference with less volatility. Most of our events are progressive flow so things are zipping along. Very difficult to predict when you get out beyond 5 days. Sometimes just a couple days is tricky. No 2 setups are the same either. Similar progressions can lead to different reuslts. 

Getting in late here, catching up on things...I think Bob pretty well covered the differences between those two events, and I'll add some here if I may.  I honestly cannot remember the details of the "storm that shall not be named" in Dec. 2010.  I do recall it looking favorable, then we were sort of out of it, then literally on Christmas Eve we got sucked back in by a couple of nice GFS runs that had an expanded precip shield.  Though I think that was perhaps the only model really that had anything of note for our area (OK, maybe the SREF did too).  We actually did get winter storm warnings posted as I recall, then those were subsequently backed off until we had nothing but wind and flurries.  Those kinds of systems, places like Philly and north can fare a lot better; we have much less leeway for what needs to be right to score on those kinds of subtle NS/SS interactions and/or Miller-B type systems (Feb. 9-10, 2010 is the prime example of the rare time we can get it to work for our area!).

The Jan. 2016 blizzard, as Bob says, was a classic set-up for us.  I know it's hindsight and perhaps easy to say this a bit flippantly now, but the set-up was almost all but a guarantee of something significant here.  Sure, there were nuances and other small-scale factors that oscillated the thinking back and forth...not to mention worry at every detail that could affect how much snow we'd get.  But I distinctly recall looking at the guidance the Saturday afternoon beforehand (storm hit the following Friday/Saturday) and looking at the discussion in here.  At that point, (nearly) every piece of guidance fell in line with a similar look, and we all *knew* something significant was headed this way.  And they didn't really waver that much on the main factors from then on.  It was a matter of working out the details and waiting.  Feb. 5-6, 2010 is another example of a storm that was well-known days in advance (could add PD-II and Dec. 18-19, 2009 too I guess).

[frd]

Keep this image in mind as you see the continued evolution of the SSWE , coupling seems likely, but the exact locations of the most impactful weather in North America still to early to tell. 

Look at the displacement as of this Thursday for the polar night jet, simply incredible,  also how far the vortex is displaced from the pole.  

Eager to see AO forecasts today and in the next few.  

 

[poolz1]

@frd You probably saw this post but I thought is was pretty interesting.  We all know there is a lag with these SSW event but seeing it in a graphic helps.  Interesting we are right on target with the pattern change roughly 15 days from the strat split.  That day 20-35 could be pretty wild with both the AO and NAO relaxing.  Hopefully this will be a 40+ day cycle like last year.  Showme has been honking at how this looks to be a stable pattern moving forward.  Excited to see how this all plays out through the rest of winter.....

 

[ryanconway63]

1 hour ago, jewell2188 said:

 

He always finds a way to save face. Has he ever admitted to being flat out wrong?

But Come on.  Wont you sign up for his $5 weather newsletter on FB.  Haha cant help but laugh.   

[frd]

1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

You probably saw this post but I thought is was pretty interesting.  We all know there is a lag with these SSW event but seeing it in a graphic helps.  Interesting we are right on target with the pattern change roughly 15 days from the strat split.  That day 20-35 could be pretty wild with both the AO and NAO relaxing.  Hopefully this will be a 40+ day cycle like last year.  Showme has been honking at how this looks to be a stable pattern moving forward.  Excited to see how this all plays out through the rest of winter.....

Yes, saw that. Very exciting times in the future. I agree we should be in for a long cycle because this event as you know is still ongoing and little recovery is noted.

Plus, for some reason , ( as you know too each SSWE is unque ) this one is a slow one, as far as the down well to the troposphere.  

You might enjoy this as well. 

We have a ways to go yet. 

Someone asked on another board about this SSWE compared to 05/06 and the opinion was this is more like  2013, but much stronger. 

As the MET from 33andrain stated " Reversal troposphere landing zone narrowing in on some day in the range 19th-22nd Jan."

 

Another source here

from /www.netweather.tv

Posted 1 hour ago (edited)

  2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The GFS op is improving every run, very very slowly it is showing the signs of downwelling, It could be one of those times where slow is better, the split is still massive at 10mb at 384 so if the split does hit the bottom of the atmosphere, it could be a long protracted spell of high latitude blocking as any significant uptick in zonal winds seems to want to also be slow to downwell.

Yes feb - the 00z run actually downwelled all the way by day 16 at 60N !

from 33andrain 

<<<

Posted 3 hours ago

2013 may be the closest historical reference we have in that it was a displacement-split hybrid, though this year's event looks notably stronger.

 

Reversal troposphere landing zone narrowing in on some day in the range 19th-22nd Jan.

>>>

 

[Scud]

Storm taking shape for Mid- Atlantic 132-180hrs. Secondary cold push will bring temperatures 5-15F behind this storm. This may be optimistic.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Did someone say January 20th lol

Okay so for the last two months...Bob is summoned by "2 weeks"...Now, PSU is summoned by   "January 20"? Got it! 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

But wasn't that for the pattern flip? Didn't hear anything about a big snow.  Besides, who came out with the 20th first? You or @C.A.P.E.? 

Oh, I know it means snow. Was just curious how much. Was hoping our statistician (hint,hint PSU ) could throw us out some numbers. 

 

All joking aside. You really have to love where we are sitting at this point. Really hoping and praying that the rug doesn't get pulled out on us because this is starting to have that look and feel of one of those long duration periods that with a little luck we talk about for a long time to come.

Since early December I was targeting the 15-20th for a pattern change back to cold and snowy.  The way I came to that wasn't that complicated.  I had identified analogs back in the fall.  1958, 1964, 1966, 1969, 1978, 1987, 1995, 2003, 2005, 2010, 2015 were my best matches overall.  Threw out 1995 because it was the one clear outlier.  Yea it could happen but when one year sticks out like that its usually an anomaly and better off just tossing it.  A fluke can happen in any year but not going to waste too much time obsessing over it.  1964 was the other anomaly in the other direction in that it was the only year that was wall to wall cold and snowing.  Winter set in mid December and didn't let up.  So I kind of tossed that wrt timing patterns.  For the rest...some of them featured an early cold/snow period then a big warm up, and a couple were just straight warm early on...but they all featured warmth for a significant stretch in December into January then a flip to cold and snow.  So when the warm showed up in December I wasn't surprised or discouraged.  Then timing up the flip back was a matter of looking at the timing of the patterns in those other years and looking at the likely progression of the pattern this year.  Looking at the most similar years regarding when the warmth set in and the progression of the mjo this year the most likely flip back was mid January.  Of course maybe I just got lucky with a good guess lol.  

But I can't and won't take any credit for a specific event, that is impossible to identify from range.  I love the 20-22 look though.  Before that, the threat this weekend isnt a bad setup, its the sort of thing that can sneak in there during the pattern transition.  It's certainly not the classic see it from a mile away thing but there is enough there to think it has a legit chance.  A lot of moving parts in a fairly progressive transient setup still though so models will struggle.  It's not the kind of thing that will lock in from 7 days out.  

As for "what history suggests we can expect" I am a bit handicapped by the climate composites being unavailable due to our inability to put responsible adults (ON BOTH SIDES) in charge of our national finances.  Just from my memory back when I was looking at patterns from analog years the closest match to the pattern taking shape day 15 (and expected to evolve after that looking at the CFS and Euro weeklies)  would be perhaps 1964, 1966, 1978 and 2010.  1958 was also close but not until mid February so lets toss that due to timing.  1969 was good on the atlantic side but a pretty crappy pacific with very little EPO/PNA help.  1987 wasn't too bad either but also with less blocking and less EPO help.  2003 and 2015 the blocking was all on the Pacific side.  If we actually get the ridge bride look with blocking in the NAO domain but also higher pressure across to the EPO side...that lines up best with some of our most epic snow periods.  Obviously we remember 2010. 

1966 after the pattern flip BWI between January 22 and Feb 2 had 2.1", 7.2", 12.1", and 2.7" and then a 8.4" storm later in February also. 

1978 from January 13th on BWI had 3.7", 2.4", 5.6", 8.5", 2.8", and 4.8".

So IF we actually get that look to develop it would be pretty difficult for us not to cash in with several snowstorms...and a historic run isn't out of the question.  

 

[LP08]

ICON is a southern slider.  Flurries to DC.  I just can't put my finger on where I have seen this map before....

 

Waiting for the vort panels to come out on TT to see how we got here.

[midatlanticweather]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Since early December I was targeting the 15-20th for a pattern change back to cold and snowy.  The way I came to that wasn't that complicated.  I had identified analogs back in the fall.  1958, 1964, 1966, 1969, 1978, 1987, 1995, 2003, 2005, 2010, 2015 were my best matches overall.  Threw out 1995 because it was the one clear outlier.  Yea it could happen but when one year sticks out like that its usually an anomaly and better off just tossing it.  A fluke can happen in any year but not going to waste too much time obsessing over it.  1964 was the other anomaly in the other direction in that it was the only year that was wall to wall cold and snowing.  Winter set in mid December and didn't let up.  So I kind of tossed that wrt timing patterns.  For the rest...some of them featured an early cold/snow period then a big warm up, and a couple were just straight warm early on...but they all featured warmth for a significant stretch in December into January then a flip to cold and snow.  So when the warm showed up in December I wasn't surprised or discouraged.  Then timing up the flip back was a matter of looking at the timing of the patterns in those other years and looking at the likely progression of the pattern this year.  Looking at the most similar years regarding when the warmth set in and the progression of the mjo this year the most likely flip back was mid January.  Of course maybe I just got lucky with a good guess lol.  

But I can't and won't take any credit for a specific event, that is impossible to identify from range.  I love the 20-22 look though.  Before that, the threat this weekend isnt a bad setup, its the sort of thing that can sneak in there during the pattern transition.  It's certainly not the classic see it from a mile away thing but there is enough there to think it has a legit chance.  A lot of moving parts in a fairly progressive transient setup still though so models will struggle.  It's not the kind of thing that will lock in from 7 days out.  

As for "what history suggests we can expect" I am a bit handicapped by the climate composites being unavailable due to our inability to put responsible adults (ON BOTH SIDES) in charge of our national finances.  Just from my memory back when I was looking at patterns from analog years the closest match to the pattern taking shape day 15 (and expected to evolve after that looking at the CFS and Euro weeklies)  would be perhaps 1964, 1966, 1978 and 2010.  1958 was also close but not until mid February so lets toss that due to timing.  1969 was good on the atlantic side but a pretty crappy pacific with very little EPO/PNA help.  1987 wasn't too bad either but also with less blocking and less EPO help.  2003 and 2015 the blocking was all on the Pacific side.  If we actually get the ridge bride look with blocking in the NAO domain but also higher pressure across to the EPO side...that lines up best with some of our most epic snow periods.  Obviously we remember 2010. 

1966 after the pattern flip BWI between January 22 and Feb 2 had 2.1", 7.2", 12.1", and 2.7" and then a 8.4" storm later in February also. 

1978 from January 13th on BWI had 3.7", 2.4", 5.6", 8.5", 2.8", and 4.8".

So IF we actually get that look to develop it would be pretty difficult for us not to cash in with several snowstorms...and a historic run isn't out of the question.  

 

You have targeted that timeframe from way back - you and Bob both said that we would probably not have a meaningful flip until the 15th or beyond. So true is this that I scheduled something and noted to the people I was scheduling that we may have weather concerns due to the changes I was thinking may occur around mid-month. So it has been a thought for a while. I honestly thought, with this being an El Nino winter, we would be backloaded. Anything before was gravy, as it always is! We were baited into early belief with the November appetizer and the Carolina/Southern VA Crusher. It makes sense climo-wise as well - which you point out here. 

[LP08]

NS vort pinwheels into NE and squashes it.  Now I definitely remember where I saw that before.

 

[Ji]

Just now, LP08 said:

NS vort pinwheels into NE and squashes it.  Now I definitely remember where I saw that before.

 

at least icon gives us 24 hours of snowTV

[yoda]

Just now, LP08 said:

NS vort pinwheels into NE and squashes it.  Now I definitely remember where I saw that before.

 

We just need a slight shift north... I am sure that we can collectively move the NS vort north 50 miles

 

[Scud]

Yea, but, "one model does not a storm maketh." It was however colder and bolder.

[LP08]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

at least icon gives us 24 hours of snowTV

Much better stream interaction too.  I'm with Yoda move that piece and it would have been a nice hit.

[Ji]

can we ever get a storm without something ruining if for us?

 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Ji said:

can we ever get a storm without something ruining if for us?

 

Yep but gotta wait until the 20th

[mappy]

hey actual mods -- want to make a new shorter term thread for the weekend threat? its probably going to get some traction this week...