January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's too similar to boxing day. The southern wave on that storm was strong and should have hit us no problem but that strong ns wave couldnt have been timed worse and the rest is history. Just 3 days out we were still square in the game but then the wheels came off

::Shudder::

Give me the FV3 progression any day of the week over the regular GFS. Though I have a hard time believing the LP gets that far north in the setup before redevelopment. 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's too similar to boxing day. The southern wave on that storm was strong and should have hit us no problem but that strong ns wave couldnt have been timed worse and the rest is history. Just 3 days out we were still square in the game but then the wheels came off

As an aside...could you say that many of our failure are because of a ns vort that's too strong? And in our "big" ones...what does it do right? Drop in at just the right time with just the right strength?

In my learning, I have been tempted to label the ns public enemy #1, but...now I see that we do need it...just not too much, not too little, and not soon or too late? (Sweet mercy...no wonder why snow is inconsistent around here!)

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

::Shudder::

Give me the FV3 progression any day of the week over the regular GFS. Though I have a hard time believing the LP gets that far north in the setup before redevelopment. 

I agree 100%. That's a real nice Front end thump before we flip.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I agree 100%. That's a real nice Front end thump before we flip.

Can't tell how much the thump is though

[yoda]

00z UKIE at 144 for now... will have to wait a lil for weathermodels to catch up on QPF and the such 

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Can't tell how much the thump is though

Just going off of ncep it looks like around .5 liquid prior to flipping. Using the 850's

[Maestrobjwa]

21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's too similar to boxing day. The southern wave on that storm was strong and should have hit us no problem but that strong ns wave couldnt have been timed worse and the rest is history. Just 3 days out we were still square in the game but then the wheels came off

So when you guys were tracking that, what did the models look like inside of those 3 days? The ns vort trended stronger and stronger? Lol (or later and later?)

And what keeps baffling me is why 2016 was so easy to track. Why is it we didn't have to worry about ns vorts or anything like that? (And why is such almost seamless tracking a rarity?) What was it that had Wes being bullish on the threat even a week before? (Is there a certain amount of blocking necessary to keep the ns vorts from disrupting?)

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It's a nasty pattern out into the LR. 

[Ji]

For the same reason I don't get why Dan snyder Hasnt fired Bruce allen... I don't get why@stormtracker wont fire chuck

[MD Snow]

Icon- gives a couple inches maybe and slides off coast and strengthens OTS but misses NE. 

CMC - has no storm. 

Gfs - Miller B type set up. Potential but we’re living on the edge with that set up. 

FV3 - runs primary into KY. Good HP placement. In that set up there is a tendency to maybe hold off on the flip a little longer than  modeled because of HP  and CAD. 

[Bob Chill]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So when you guys were tracking that, what did the models look like inside of those 3 days? The ns vort trended stronger and stronger? Lol (or later and later?)

And what keeps baffling me is why 2016 was so easy to track. Why is it we didn't have to worry about ns vorts or anything like that? (And why is such almost seamless tracking a rarity?) What was it that had Wes being bullish on the threat even a week before? (Is there a certain amount of blocking necessary to keep the ns vorts from disrupting?)

It just trended into a bad phase. 3+ days out we were thinking 6-10" then models started degrading the phase timing and qpf was shrinking. It's how it goes sometimes. We've benefitted from many timely phases too. It's a numbers game.

2016 had a west based nao block. When flow is blocked and slows down models can be more accurate from longer leads. Less speed = less chaos. If we get a stable block this winter you'll notice a difference with less volatility. Most of our events are progressive flow so things are zipping along. Very difficult to predict when you get out beyond 5 days. Sometimes just a couple days is tricky. No 2 setups are the same either. Similar progressions can lead to different reuslts. 

[jaydreb]

Less than a week ago we were cancelling winter and 24 hours ago next weekend looked like a long shot.  Now we have most major models (except CMC) showing accumulating snow in the area in less than 7 days and then a great pattern to follow.   At least things aren’t boring anymore and we’re no longer discussing MJO.   

[HighStakes]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

It just trended into a bad phase. 3+ days out we were thinking 6-10" then models started degrading the phase timing and qpf was shrinking. It's how it goes sometimes. We've benefitted from many timely phases too. It's a numbers game.

2016 had a west based nao block. When flow is blocked and slows down models can be more accurate from longer leads. Less speed = less chaos. If we get a stable block this winter you'll notice a difference with less volatility. Most of our events are progressive flow so things are zipping along. Very difficult to predict when you get out beyond 5 days. Sometimes just a couple days is tricky. No 2 setups are the same either. Similar progressions can lead to different reuslts. 

Once we got inside 3 days on the boxing day debacle it got bad fast like you said. If memory serves me correct the last real good model run was the 18z gfs on Christmas eve. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Less than a week ago we were cancelling winter and 24 hours ago next weekend looked like a long shot.  Now we have most major models (except CMC) showing accumulating snow in the area in less than 7 days and then a great pattern to follow.   At least things aren’t boring anymore and we’re no longer discussing MJO.   

[jaydreb]

Lol, I guess it looks good.  So it spent 11 days in 5 and then raced through 7 in two days?

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It just trended into a bad phase. 3+ days out we were thinking 6-10" then models started degrading the phase timing and qpf was shrinking. It's how it goes sometimes. We've benefitted from many timely phases too. It's a numbers game.

2016 had a west based nao block. When flow is blocked and slows down models can be more accurate from longer leads. Less speed = less chaos. If we get a stable block this winter you'll notice a difference with less volatility. Most of our events are progressive flow so things are zipping along. Very difficult to predict when you get out beyond 5 days. Sometimes just a couple days is tricky. No 2 setups are the same either. Similar progressions can lead to different reuslts. 

Ah, I see! Now that there...is that necessary for a big storm, or have we gotten big ones without it? (I'm guessing that perfect timing in a progressive flow can still yield such an event?)

I don't wish to take up all the space here, but my curiosity this evening knows no bounds...lol 

[yoda]

00z GEFS snowfall mean makes a decent jump from 156 to 180

[yoda]

Don't mind this look at all from the 00z GEFS at 384

 

[yoda]

24 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z GEFS snowfall mean makes a decent jump from 156 to 180

156 snowfall mean at DCA is around an inch... 180/186 its close to 5 inches... some major hits in there

[jaydreb]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

156 snowfall mean at DCA is around an inch... 180 its close to 5 inches... some major hits in there

Yep.  Big improvement.  

 

[yoda]

Reason it's out to 198 is because member e12 takes the storm out that long

[Ji]

Dr no no

Like usual

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Dr no no

Like usual

NS is dropping down through the eastern lakes suppressing the low. Pick the worse time and the worse placement for this NS and this is probably it.

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

NS is dropping down through the eastern lakes suppressing the low. Pick the worse time and the worse placement for this NS and this is probably it.

Since I can't see the precip panels and such...what is it saying? A miss North/east of us, or?

And oh, that's great lakes low...my goodness how that has been such a thorn in our side the past year! (but still better for it to show up now than within 3 days...lol)

[showmethesnow]

Storm we have been following for roughly around the 18th looks to be running to our north and west by 240 hr. Far to our north and west. Question if we would see any meaningful precip from it. Wouldn't matter because the temps are shot at that point anyway. Not a good run all around.

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Since I can't see the precip panels and such...what is it saying? A miss North/east of us, or?

And oh, that's great lakes low...my goodness how that has been such a thorn in our side the past year! (but still better for it to show up now than within 3 days...lol)

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Oh wow that misses everybody doesn't it? Lol

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh wow that misses everybody doesn't it? Lol

Slow the NS down by a half a day to a day then the southern low has some room to intensify somewhat and come north. Or move its drop into the western lakes and the southern low has breathing room. As I said, about the worst timing and placement you could want at this time for an impact in our region. But the Euro probably doesn't have that featured nailed down at this time. See this within 3 days then you can probably start worrying about it.

[arlwx]

The latest from NWS:

(snip)

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
It will be blustery on Thu with the local area in between deep low
pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure over the
north central U.S. Wind chill values will be in the 20s all day.
High pressure then builds over the region Thu night through Fri
night keeping cold and dry conditions. For next weekend, the global
models show the potential for a winter storm to impact the mid
Atlantic and Northeast coasts with the GFS showing more phasing and
a sfc low track closer to the coast and farther north than the rest
of the global models (ECMWF, UKMET and Canadian) which show a more
suppressed and less developed sfc system and track farther offshore.
At this time, Sat and Sat night appear the best time frame for any
precip with snow the most likely p-type given strong upper
confluence and sfc high pressure over the Northeast and southern
Ontario and Quebec regions.

(snip)

[showmethesnow]

For storm #1 (around the 13th) we are seeing a little more dig with the trough but we are also seeing more of a positive tilt as well. Pretty much drawing a blank on whether these are good things or bad. Problem here is, what do we see in regards to any interaction, if any, between the NS and the southern low? We want to see one thing for a solely SS storm and another for interaction between the two streams. To further complicate matters, after quickly glancing over the individual members it looks as is if some what to split the southern energy and bring a piece ahead with a follow up shortly later. Just looking at the mean mslp maps we see less of a low signature off the coast and it gives the impression that the EPS favors a suppressed and OTS solution. But that may be somewhat misleading and is more of an indication that the EPS may be evolving on how it wants to handle the setup. Then again maybe not as many of the members I looked at were weak and suppressed systems

Snowfall means stayed roughly the same through this period of time for the DC/Balt region but we did see a little pickup on the eastern shore later in time which I believe is indicative of some members splitting the energy. We did see some decent hits for the general region but nothing that said WOW!!!

Short of seeing the southern energy splitting I think we are pretty much looking at 3 options on the table here with the EPS. 

1) The NS runs interference and we have a weak and suppressed system running to our south with minimal impact (inch or two at best) through the DC/Balt corridor. This is/has been the solution I have favored all along and I think is the most likely outcome.

2) The NS stays out of the way giving the southern low some room to amplify and come north somewhat. This scenario probably puts us into a moderate event of 2-4, 3-6 inches type of deal.

3) We see interaction and /or phasing between the two streams and the low strengthens and pulls up the coast. This is the potential SEC/MEC scenario with 6-12+ possible if we see a clean phase. Lesser amounts if we see a partial or dirty phase. Unfortunately for you Big Dog chasers a clean phase is also the least likely at this time. The general setup and timing argue against it.

Now we are still talking 6 days out. We are talking the key feature, the NS, as something the models have difficulty with at range. And we also are now seeing the possibility of 2 pieces of southern energy. So this storm is far from being settled at this point.