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January Medium/Long Range Discussion

nj2va

By nj2va,
in Mid Atlantic

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted

Old news the same as the new news. 

I guess manybe today, or in the next several,  the EPS may sense the correct MJO phase/progression.  

Speculate in a wonderful world the weeklies tonight suck, and the weeklies on Thursday show a KU potential down the road. 

However that may indeed be wishful thinking. Will be cool to see though. 

 

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, frd said:

Old news the same as the new news. 

I guess manybe today, or in the next several,  the EPS may sense the correct MJO phase/progression.  

Speculate in a wonderful world the weeklies tonight suck, and the weeklies on Thursday show a KU potential down the road. 

However that may indeed be wishful thinking. Will be cool to see though. 

 

 

 

I posted this just now on the New England thread. The RMM plots are currently apocryphal/erroneous: 

 

"Yes - this is what I was posting a few days ago re: the stratospheric amplification of the MJO signal, hence the propensity for increased warmth/cutters over the Dec 20-Jan 5 period. The MJO is actually in phase 6 right now. RMM plots suffering from rw/kw interference. The ECMWF has been attemping to send the wave into the null phase since p 3, and has been correcting since. The stratospheric driving augments the MJO signal, and there's no physical reason for the ewd propagation to cease. 

The potential threat period around the 8th-9th will feature a phase 8 MJO by that point."

 

last.90d.RMMPhase.png

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

I posted this just now on the New England thread. The RMM plots are currently apocryphal/erroneous: 

 

"Yes - this is what I was posting a few days ago re: the stratospheric amplification of the MJO signal, hence the propensity for increased warmth/cutters over the Dec 20-Jan 5 period. The MJO is actually in phase 6 right now. RMM plots suffering from rw/kw interference. The ECMWF has been attemping to send the wave into the null phase since p 3, and has been correcting since. The stratospheric driving augments the MJO signal, and there's no physical reason for the ewd propagation to cease. 

The potential threat period around the 8th-9th will feature a phase 8 MJO by that point."

Thanks Tom, always great to read your updates. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
Just now, Ji said:

you giving up on Jan 9-10 already?

No, not at all. The required track is very difficult. I'm not going to pay much attention unless it still looks good at d5. Being honest with ourselves... we almost never score on a downhill trajectory of a northern stream shortwave. Odds greatly favor a north track. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs still insisting the pac improves nicely in the not too distant future. Clean epo ridge and TPV displacement near Hudson again. Quite the divergence from the 0z eps in the same period. 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_59.png

Usually taking the gefs over EPS is a weenie bad idea. But...i know...but the gefs has been killing the EPS on the mjo for a long time now and if the mjo seems to be the driver of all this than there is reason to think it's closer to the right path. No guidance has been good past day 7 lately but the EPS has been especially bad lately. We will see...you know when. 

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Another appetizing pressure panel... Sprawling hp to the north with the pac jet undercutting? Good God I hope the gefs wins this war....

That depiction also tends to match overall HM's thoughts on the wave breaking formation of the -NAO in Jan. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Usually taking the gefs over EPS is a weenie bad idea. But...i know...but the gefs has been killing the EPS on the mjo for a long time now and if the mjo seems to be the driver of all this than there is reason to think it's closer to the right path. No guidance has been good past day 7 lately but the EPS has been especially bad lately. We will see...you know when. 

Using the geps as hedge between vastly different height patterns also favors the gefs. 

For the record, Im still optimistic about a reversal just like you but I no longer trust anything. I've seen enough morphing and pushback on the ens the last 2 weeks to know that the pac will remain hostile until it isn't. We're still far away from improvement on all guidance. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
Just now, Bob Chill said:

Using the geps as hedge between vastly different height patterns also favors the gefs. 

For the record, Im still optimistic about a reversal just like you but I no longer trust anything. I've seen enough morphing and pushback on the ens the last 2 weeks to know that the pac will remain hostile until it isn't. We're still far away from improvement on all guidance. 

I'm fairly confident at some point the Pacific corrects and we get a good look. The issue is when and how good. That gefs suggests around the 20th on.  It's about 48 hours from looking really good at day 16. You can see the jet undercutting. That's in line with a lot of analogs.  But if the EPS is right it might not be until Feb. and we are bleeding away prime climo now. Things don't get right until Feb and we get unlucky once or twice and that's how we end up with 1969 instead of 1966 or 1987. Ironically 58 was a good example of how luck plays a role. 58 and 69 were very similar in timing and patterns. But 58 hit one fluke snow early and then both big storm threats crushed our area late. 69 several big storms just missed with the truly big totals. Similar years.  Very different outcomes. 

But my point is the more climo we waste the more we will need luck to win. Naturally we will have less chances to waste if we don't get right until into Feb. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

@psuhoffman

Yea, pushing into Feb leaves us 5 weeks where it doesn't have to be perfect but 5 weeks goes by really fast when your behind and chasing. Just going on a 2 week heater would satisfy many in general after another year with a long wait. 

I mispoke when I said I went below climo in the contest. I switched my entries at the last minute when I thought the AO was going to cooperate so my guesses are all slightly above climo. We can still knock down climo in short order with one big storm and a couple moderate ones. All that can happen in a 2 week heater. The one saving grace that could salvage a very slow start is a big storm and this year certainly still has that potential. Big qpf makers have been a dime a dozen. 

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snowmagnet

snowmagnet

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm fairly confident at some point the Pacific corrects and we get a good look. The issue is when and how good. That gefs suggests around the 20th on.  It's about 48 hours from looking really good at day 16. You can see the jet undercutting. That's in line with a lot of analogs.  But if the EPS is right it might not be until Feb. and we are bleeding away prime climo now. Things don't get right until Feb and we get unlucky once or twice and that's how we end up with 1969 instead of 1966 or 1987. Ironically 58 was a good example of how luck plays a role. 58 and 69 were very similar in timing and patterns. But 58 hit one fluke snow early and then both big storm threats crushed our area late. 69 several big storms just missed with the truly big totals. Similar years.  Very different outcomes. 

But my point is the more climo we waste the more we will need luck to win. Naturally we will have less chances to waste if we don't get right until into Feb. 

March 1st, 1969 gave us a DC snowstorm.  I wasn’t alive at that point, but my parents got married in a “blizzard”- it’s a family story and they apparently followed a snow plow all the way to Williamsburg, VA. 

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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Posted
Posted

This SSW is turning out to be like last March where it downwelled to a 570 -NAO just while the Pacific was -PNA and AK trough. There is a reason that happens, I think. The NPH off the coast of California is also really showing up which is a -NOI, El Nino, signal and actualy resembles some Stronger El Nino's, or sometimes you see it in +Neutral. I'd love to see what that feature in early January means for later Winter.

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