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January Medium/Long Range Discussion

nj2va

By nj2va,
in Mid Atlantic

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aldie 22

aldie 22

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Ji said:
10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:
Look at 6z gfs after 240. 3 closed 500 lows with great tracks.  FWIW,  it does seem to be a trend this year to get strong 500 shortwaves. If we ever get some cold air and that continues, eventually we’ll cash in with a big storm.

Weve been saying that since november

We say it every year dude...its how you get a big storm...moisture plus cold air...pretty sure we will say it next year too

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Now for everyone else that isn't named Ji. Actually really like what I see. About the only downside is that the Jan 13th storm is extremely suppressed and progressive which is what I have been expecting to see with that feature all along. Everything else shows quite a bit of promise despite the lack of snow showing up on the maps.

yeah..."my" storm looks like a southern slider.  6z got the NS shorwave outta the way though....lol

500's do not look good for that one and no room to come north as currently modeled, but it was worth a shot.  Still time for changes of course.  Just happy to headed to a better regime.

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snowmagnet

snowmagnet

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

That was a weird hybrid with an anomalous south h5 cutoff low pass. Kinda like the second feb 2010 storm or the march 2013 storm. Yea I know that one sucked but because of boundary temps. A month earlier and that was a 10" snow. Those have a slightly better chance then a pure miller b where the upper low develops and cuts off later. But this doesn't matter it's all fiction. I was just pointing out he said the gfs looked awful past day 10 when in reality it's a pretty good look there. 

I’m pretty sure FFX Co actually had about 10 inches with the second February storm in ‘10. If I remember correctly,  Baltimore had even more. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Look at 6z gfs after 240. 3 closed 500 lows with great tracks.  FWIW,  it does seem to be a trend this year to get strong 500 shortwaves. If we ever get some cold air and that continues, eventually we’ll cash in with a big storm.

yeah, saw that.  One of them has to do it.  Looks active for sure.

that one on the 18th looks like a doozy.  GREAT track  500/surface all look great.

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted

Outstanding post from Zac over at 33andrain, educational and forecast wise on the mark ! 

The train is leaving soon in my opinion....

Later Jan watch out , the players we need are all lining up. High impacts events seem possible.

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Yes the more Nina-esque than expected tune through December was certainly not expected by me, with the +AAM being pushed back to New Years as it is now, but it is fortunately now here, and we are seeing impacts with the NP Jet extension in the next week or so (more on that further down this post).

 

 

The low orbit of the GWO positive phase, that we are in, is because the relative AAM anomaly is low, with a substantial contribution from Earth AAM, contributing to the total AAM.

 

The big November (as far as I can see from Australia) was largely generated by the +AAM.

IMG_6126.GIF

We saw that unprecedented spike in the AAM in the majority of November. But then you see that smaller +AAM spike from 5-15 Dec, and then now the current (total AAM) +AAM spike, which is nearing the level produced by the +AAM spike in November.

 

The difference is what is driving it. Total AAM, sees relative and earth AAM combined, unlike what is seen in the GWO charts, which just have relative AAM. There is probably a reason for this (torques cover earth AAM?, it doesn't effect the Total AAM often, etc.), but it just shows that the GWO chart can't see absolutely everything, so should like every tool we use to forecast the weather, be examined with all of the GSDM tools that we are provided. But of course I'm not denying it's a good tool, it can see lots of things that the MJO, and the favourite the SOI cannot, but not everything.

 

IMG_6127.GIF

If we look at the relative AAM, you see the November spike, but a much lesser +AAM spike now for the current +AAM, and very little sight of the +AAM event from 5-15 Dec.

 

IMG_6128.GIF

 

Earth AAM after months of stable neutrality, produced a relatively strong +AAM for the 5-15 Dec event, driving that total AAM spike. And now it is producing, alongside relative AAM, this large +AAM spike. It's very interesting to see this component come into play.

 

 

The other thing I would like to add, is that I think this +AAM event will still produce what is intended (colder impacts for Europe and Eastern US), later in the month, along with when the SSW downwells into the troposphere IMO. We need to see the extra momentum, and then get the troughs into the extratropics (via SSW > -AO > HLB). Then the AAM can drop, jetstreams can drop a little and that is when we see the real cold. The timing could be a little off, but the second half of the month should still be good for the Eastern US and Europe. Europe quite likes a +AAM/GWO P 6-7-8 in terms of colder risks IMO, with the jet to push away the block over the UK.

 

IMG_6124.GIF

 

And you can see the +EAMT impacts are still on show well into mid-month, with a NP Jet extension, which will bring +PNA impacts after that extension weakens a little (without collapsing the Aleutian Low structure), and we see blocking in the Western US develop, and that brings troughing to the Eastern US. Along with the eventual -AO, downstream AAM effects will bring a -NAO later in the month. 

 

And I think everyone also forgets that the MJO Phase 7-8-1 impacts for troughing in the Eastern US, and Phase 7 MJO impacts towards a -NAO, all have a lag, depending on the location of impact and the tropical signal. The MJO and NAO connection features a lag of 10 days for example. 

 

- Zac

>>>

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Now for everyone else that isn't named Ji. Actually really like what I see. About the only downside is that the Jan 13th storm is extremely suppressed and progressive which is what I have been expecting to see with that feature all along. Everything else shows quite a bit of promise despite the lack of snow showing up on the maps.

The good news is that it may be rain anyway so people won’t have to see them get snow down there again.  The air mass is putrid down in the gulf coast region on many of the ensemble members despite the fact that’s a perfect track for snow in BHM ATL GSP on many of the members it’s more likely than not to be rain  

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, nj2va said:

7th straight day with negative SOI. 

What are your thoughts with the pattern change?

Seems on target but we will have a period where it warms again , most likely before the cold really locks in. 

That could change of course, based on modeling.

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted

@poolz1

This is one long progressing SSWE , multiple days in reversal and it appears that a connection between the strat and trop does happen. 

Have included a Judah post below, just posted, which shows the down welling.  

Seeing a little more indication of a -  AO drop this AM in the ensembles. 

When you look back at 1985 the resulted cold was I think was 13 to 17 days after reversal , but looking here today at things I would speculate the coldest air will take longer to gather and arrive. 

I also think that this SSWE 's impact will last a long longer based on the duration of the reversal and the appearance of additional warming. 

Just need to slow the Pac jet, that s still an issue and can be seen on the EPS. 

Hopefully in time the models trend further to the looks of late Jan from the CFSV2 , Euro weeklies, seasonal and the JMA. 

This progression is simply slower to evolve I think, based on what happened in mid December. 

 

 

 

 

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nj2va

nj2va

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Posted
26 minutes ago, frd said:

What are your thoughts with the pattern change?

Seems on target but we will have a period where it warms again , most likely before the cold really locks in. 

That could change of course, based on modeling.

I think all systems go for a major pattern change starting to take shape by next weekend..dominoes start falling within 7 days on the ensembles.  We’ll see an initial push of cold air but the first western ridge will shift east across the CONUS while the PAC retrogrades and locks in a favorable PAC with high heights in the PNA and EPO domains.  Meanwhile, -NAO and -AO will continue to build.  While there will be cold to tap from Canada, I don’t anticipate wall to wall cold in this pattern over us, which will probably cause some panic here.  But as Bob and PSU alluded to yesterday, we don’t do well when we have a PV sitting over us.  I think its going to be a very active pattern with multiple chances.  We won’t hit a home run with every chance but we’ll do quite well IMO.  Active times ahead.

eta:  19-21st is a period to watch for sure.

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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
Posted
Icon really wants to time and phase the 2 shortwaves perfectly. Easy hug for now. Other than always, when has the icon been wrong at the end of its run?


The one thing about the ICON I’ve noticed is it does a good job of sniffing things out in the medium range. It often loses the event draws closer, for whatever reason, but I think the ICON does better then people think.

That said, 180 hours is not really medium range.
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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm going to disagree with showme about the eps backing off on next weekend. In my eyes it looks like the spread found more ways to get it done in general but also an increase in big ticket solutions

You could very well be right. I just took a quick look at the mslp and the 500 charts and they looked as if they stepped back. Didn't bother parsing through the individual members themselves which may be telling another story.

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm going to disagree with showme about the eps backing off on next weekend. In my eyes it looks like the spread found more ways to get it done in general but also an increase in big ticket solutions

Only as a potential clue, the Navy model came in much closer . 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


The one thing about the ICON I’ve noticed is it does a good job of sniffing things out in the medium range. It often loses the event draws closer, for whatever reason, but I think the ICON does better then people think.

That said, 180 hours is not really medium range.

 

12z Icon at 144 ejects SW much quicker than GFS at same time and looks like its much better w/ spacing between NS.  GFS is worlds apart.  Thats what i see as the diff...so far. 

If we could only believe the ICON, we'd all be a little giddy right now.

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