January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ralph Wiggum]

30 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

In 4 hours it will be totally different. 

FV3CPO GFS says what storm

[Ralph Wiggum]

20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

IMO the differences between the Eps and GEFS are largely MJO driven. Eps makes sense if the wave only gets to phase 6 and then dies in the COD. GEFS makes sense with a continued progression into phases 6 and 7. And it’s not weenieish to say the GEFS has been much better with the amplitude and progression, or lack of it, over the last few weeks vs the Eps. But as of yesterday at least, GEFS showed the wave getting to phase 7 with strong amplitudes while the Eps again killed it in phase 6. 

GEFS essentially all get to 7 then stall there. That would be one of the scenarios we have been hoping for anyway. Let's just get to 7 first tho.

[Ji]

FV3CPO GFS says what storm

That model is pure garbage by the way. If that's the upgrade...were in trouble

[showmethesnow]

33 minutes ago, Ji said:

54 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

In 4 hours it will be totally different. 

When big snowstorms show up in disaster patterns.....

Think you just described 95% of modeled snow. 

[CAPE]

50 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

IMO the differences between the Eps and GEFS are largely MJO driven. Eps makes sense if the wave only gets to phase 6 and then dies in the COD. GEFS makes sense with a continued progression into phases 6 and 7. And it’s not weenieish to say the GEFS has been much better with the amplitude and progression, or lack of it, over the last few weeks vs the Eps. But as of yesterday at least, GEFS showed the wave getting to phase 7 with strong amplitudes while the Eps again killed it in phase 6. 

I think you are right. The other contributing 'issue' is how each model is handling the SWE, the exact locations of the daughter vortices post split, and the ultimate impact this all has on the troposphere going forward.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

In 4 hours it will be totally different. 

When big snowstorms show up in disaster patterns.....

There's no doubt about it, this promised glorious winter has been a disaster so far.  But there really is no reason to give up now.  If at the end of January, we don't start seeing something, we're in trouble. 

[frd]

Just now, stormtracker said:

There's no doubt about it, this promised glorious winter has been a disaster so far.  But there really is no reason to give up now.  If at the end of January, we don't start seeing something, we're in trouble. 

Eric stated there may have been a relationship due to the SSWE in the SH about 30 to 60 days ago, it is winding down now,  but my have interfered with the MJO as well at the beginning of December possibly. ( ie increase in MJO amplitude over the Indian Ocean ) 

I know a couple weeks ago when I saw twin cyclones in the Southern Indian Ocean that was a red flag.  

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

IMO the differences between the Eps and GEFS are largely MJO driven. Eps makes sense if the wave only gets to phase 6 and then dies in the COD. GEFS makes sense with a continued progression into phases 6 and 7. And it’s not weenieish to say the GEFS has been much better with the amplitude and progression, or lack of it, over the last few weeks vs the Eps. But as of yesterday at least, GEFS showed the wave getting to phase 7 with strong amplitudes while the Eps again killed it in phase 6. 

Agree. One thing though...if the wave does die then the mjo won't be any help but wouldn't it also stop being a hinderance?  It would take longer for the lag effect to diminish so maybe that would delay a pattern flip a week or two, but eventually wouldn't the longwave pattern revert to a typical nino look in the Pacific absent any mjo influence?  I remember reading some stuff about how in a typical nino the mjo is typically weaker and muted and that's why the nino phase plots don't look as bad in the warm phases. I think it's not that it's good to have the mjo in phase 5 in an El Niño (even though phase 5 correlations show cold in nino) it's that typically the mjo waves are weak and don't hurt the longwave pattern as much and the nino influence is able to overcome it. The cold phases still look better for instance. So back to my original question wouldn't just getting the mjo to die (especially if we also get an soi drop) be at least somewhat helpful vs having it rage at record levels in warm phases?

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Agree. One thing though...if the wave does die then the mjo won't be any help but wouldn't it also stop being a hinderance?  It would take longer for the lag effect to diminish so maybe that would delay a pattern flip a week or two, but eventually wouldn't the longwave pattern revert to a typical nino look in the Pacific absent any mjo influence?  I remember reading some stuff about how in a typical nino the mjo is typically weaker and muted and that's why the nino phase plots don't look as bad in the warm phases. I think it's not that it's good to have the mjo in phase 5 in an El Niño (even though phase 5 correlations show cold in nino) it's that typically the mjo waves are weak and don't hurt the longwave pattern as much and the nino influence is able to overcome it. The cold phases still look better for instance. So back to my original question wouldn't just getting the mjo to die (especially if we also get an soi drop) be at least somewhat helpful vs having it rage at record levels in warm phases?

I'm certainly no MJO expert, but I think you'd prefer the COD over stuck in Phase 4/5/6, but going into the COD from those warm phases would likely create a lag effect while you wait for other large scale factors to drive the pattern.  

Updated MJO forecasts for today show the euro continuing to correct as the wave is certainly not dying.  GEFS races the wave through Phase 6 (a good thing if true) and then stalls it/loops it in Phase 7.  I still think the CFS progression is probably the right one in general showing a substantial wave make it around the horn into Phase 8.

[frd]

SOI into the negative today 

 

Daily contribution to SOI calculation

-0.42

[snowmagnet]

I realize that I have a VERY amateur understanding of all this, but I remember that the past couple of years, the EPS has struggled with winter forecasts.   Some Mets were thinking that the raging PAC jet was causing problems for the models, especially the EURO. I don’t remember if the GFS was having the same problems, but I’m wondering if that is the case again.??  

Secondly, I’ve been glancing at the New England forum for a friend who is traveling to VT to ski later in January and a couple of people  noted that models are not going to get a handle on things until the SSW takes place.  I know people have said this here as well, but It was a bit encouraging that others across the East Coast are having a hard time being patient. Someone noted that everyone from DC to the North should get plenty of snow after the changes take place later in January.   It has felt like the “Panic Room” in here the past week or so. 

[frd]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I'm certainly no MJO expert, but I think you'd prefer the COD over stuck in Phase 4/5/6, but going into the COD from those warm phases would likely create a lag effect while you wait for other large scale factors to drive the pattern.  

Updated MJO forecasts for today show the euro continuing to correct as the wave is certainly not dying.  GEFS races the wave through Phase 6 (a good thing if true) and then stalls it/loops it in Phase 7.  I still think the CFS progression is probably the right one in general showing a substantial wave make it around the horn into Phase 8.

The Euro update indeed shows it moving the wave.

And, looking over at the MJO filtered VP200 forecasts it certainly appears the wave keeps moving in time as well. 

 

 

 

[nj2va]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

SOI into the negative today 

 

Daily contribution to SOI calculation

-0.42

Was just about to post the same thing.  Quite the reversal from a few days ago.

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think you are right. The other contributing 'issue' is how each model is handling the SWE, the exact locations of the daughter vortices post split, and the ultimate impact this all has on the troposphere going forward.

Your right but those two could be linked.  For instance the gefs wants to park the PV over central Canada and the EPS wants to park it near Greenland. The effects of that difference are significant to our snow chances. But the reason for that difference could be the upstream longwave pattern in the Pacific. If the trough is pressing in on the west coast it's also pumping the ridge ahead which could help squeeze the PV northeast into the nao domain.  

[frd]

Just now, nj2va said:

Was just about to post the same thing.  Quite the reversal from a few days ago.

Some positives on New Year's Eve, hopefully the EPS begins to shift to the GEFS side moving forward, maybe even today. 

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Some positives on New Year's Eve, hopefully the EPS begins to shift to the GEFS side moving forward, maybe even today. 

EPS has been pretty bad with the MJO honestly.  Keeps correcting as time goes on.  

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

In 4 hours it will be totally different. 

When big snowstorms show up in disaster patterns.....

There is a raging -nao next week. The runs that create the storm simply do it by timing up a storm with a flexing of that block. The 6z gfs has a mini vortex spinning under the block in the 50/50 position which forces the system under us even though it's starting out way north of ideal out west. Can that work?  It has but it's rare. It requires perfect timing because the upstream longwave pattern sucks. The system has to eject at a point when we have a perfect setup downstream to force it under. Absent that it will cut.  It's possible. With that nao it's not some long range crazy fabrication but it's low probability for sure. 

[North Balti Zen]

For the record, and this is my first post in this thread, for those that say this thread has turned into the panic room, I guess I gently take issue with that. The vast majority of the posts in this thread come from our more leaned amateurs and some pros. If there is nothing hopeful for them to relay from their observations of the modeling, it sure seems like it would be wrong for them to pretend otherwise. I am guessing when the first hints at legit hope show up in the mid-range, their posting will reflect that.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

FV3CPO GFS says what storm

That model is pure garbage by the way. If that's the upgrade...were in trouble

Before I trash its shortcoming the Fv3 has some notable improvements. It handles intricate meso scale features much better. It does a much better job accurately portraying the thermals in a system. It schooled the old gfs with the November 15 snow. Inside 100 hours it seems to be slightly better with handling the track of mid latitude systems. But it seems (and this is purely observation) to be wildly inconsistent at range. Even more so than the old gfs lately. And since the pattern has sucked and as have spent a lot of time looking at days 7-16 it makes it seem even worse. Frankly no guidance does all that well at that range.  And none of the other ops even bother to go past 10 days. And since we don't have any ensembles based off the Fv3 it's impossible to do a real fair assessment of its abilities at long range forecasting. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is a raging -nao next week. The runs that create the storm simply do it by timing up a storm with a flexing of that block. The 6z gfs has a mini vortex spinning under the block in the 50/50 position which forces the system under us even though it's starting out way north of ideal out west. Can that work?  It has but it's rare. It requires perfect timing because the upstream longwave pattern sucks. The system has to eject at a point when we have a perfect setup downstream to force it under. Absent that it will cut.  It's possible. With that nao it's not some long range crazy fabrication but it's low probability for sure. 

It is interesting though because although not identical, both the Euro and GFS show a similar evolution that get us some frozen.  First time in a long time that ops are keying on a discrete threat.

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, frd said:

SOI into the negative today 

 

Daily contribution to SOI calculation

-0.42

There are lots of very positive signs right now. The soi dropping combined with analogs that suggest an soi drop is inevitable. The mjo nearing the end of its trip through the warm phases.  Signs the AO is about to tank. We just need the long range guidance to start to show the longwave pattern impacts we would expect from those indicators. 

This often takes longer than we want. Last February we were doing the same thing. Mjo looked good. Sswe. AO tanking. But the pattern looked awful. So we gave up. Then all hell broke loose in March. This time isn't as much against us. Getting things right the end of January into February isn't as problematic as March. We should see signs of the pattern progression soon. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

For the record, and this is my first post in this thread, for those that say this thread has turned into the panic room, I guess I gently take issue with that. The vast majority of the posts in this thread come from our more leaned amateurs and some pros. If there is nothing hopeful for them to relay from their observations of the modeling, it sure seems like it would be wrong for them to pretend otherwise. I am guessing when the first hints at legit hope show up in the mid-range, their posting will reflect that.

I agree. There haven't been a bunch of posts telling us to stop looking at long range guidance or saying we're wasting our time. That crap in the LONG RANGE thread annoys me. And it's not like sometimes when it's not THAT BAD but people are just venting their pessimism. It has been that bad. And when it is that bad what's the harm in saying so?  

The real test will come when things start to look better. Whether it's a lot better or simply getting to a pattern that has hope we know it's unlikely to run all winter in a total no hope shutout pattern. Once we get to a workable or good pattern then the "this sucks" stuff has to stop and be replaced with real analysis of the pattern and any threats. But until that happens a little bit of blowing off steam is understandable and doesn't really hurt anything since there isn't that much to discuss. Only so many ways to say the same things. 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are lots of very positive signs right now. The soi dropping combined with analogs that suggest an soi drop is inevitable. The mjo nearing the end of its trip through the warm phases.  Signs the AO is about to tank. We just need the long range guidance to start to show the longwave pattern impacts we would expect from those indicators. 

This often takes longer than we want. Last February we were doing the same thing. Mjo looked good. Sswe. AO tanking. But the pattern looked awful. So we gave up. Then all hell broke loose in March. This time isn't as much against us. Getting things right the end of January into February isn't as problematic as March. We should see signs of the pattern progression soon. 

Most importantly we have a sig ens model war right now. The gefs/geps are vastly different with the Pac d10-15. Eps went 2-3 steps the wrong way last night. Headfake and cave or first to see the pac degrading back to a disgusting pattern?

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

It is interesting though because although not identical, both the Euro and GFS show a similar evolution that get us some frozen.  First time in a long time that ops are keying on a discrete threat.

They both time up the system perfectly with the 50:50 but that timing is delicate and likely wrong on both from that range. 

[nj2va]

CMC is a light overrunning/SW flow event for the 9th..looks like an inch or two.  

[PDIII]

Low pressure in to Chicago...

[tplbge]

10 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Low pressure in to Chicago...

Congrats Detroit.  Low goes right over DC at 222.

[nj2va]

I forgot what a H north of us with SLP nearby looks like.  Trough went negative too quickly therefore the cut to Chicago.  Certainly potential with this one.  

[stormtracker]

4 hours ago, stormtracker said:

In 4 hours it will be totally different. 

sigh

[Chris78]

20 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I forgot what a H north of us with SLP nearby looks like.  Trough went negative too quickly therefore the cut to Chicago.  Certainly potential with this one.  

I agree. A stout high to the NW does wonders. Has potential.