AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 0z NAM once again trending stronger with the -NAO than GFS at 84hr. Stronger -NAO than 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 15 minutes ago, Fozz said: Yes, it was a huge storm here. Widespread 12-18” totals around DC and Baltimore. Loved that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 On a more random note...Now, ordinarily, we don't often go anymore than 3-4 years without getting a "footer" (my term for storms that drop a foot or more)...Now in a couple weeks, it woulda been 3 years since our last one (2016), so...if things do indeed line up favorably...perhaps we're due? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 19 minutes ago, Fozz said: Yes, it was a huge storm here. Widespread 12-18” totals around DC and Baltimore. Huh...don't know why I don't remember much about that storm! (I was about 9...seem to remember it snowing, but perhaps wasn't as aware back then, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 0z GFS will probably trend toward snow with the 1/13 storm. Jan 2000 had a major Stratosphere warming like this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 More -NAO this run of GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Icon is basically a perfect h5 evolution... This would be a warning level event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Dont look at the icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, Ji said: Dont look at the icon Too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Too late haha - like clockwork between you and Ji Let's just hope it's still there when we wake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 I guess models still haven't factored in Stratosphere warmings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Icon is basically a perfect h5 evolution... This would be a warning level event Will that 1040 HP over NE stay in place long enough to allow the second L in the GOM to ride up the front and give us a double whammy? Probably wishful thinking, but the 540 line appears to show the cold flow down from the GL. And at the risk of being greedy, any chance of a phase? Seem to recall we often get scenarios when the first wave loads things up for the second wave to bomb out. Not saying that's gonna happen in this case, but some of the variables appear to be there (edit - STJ with fetch over Mexico, deepening trough over the Mississippi). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs stronger with the SW this run . Better ridge out west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Someone needs to start a storm thread. Chuck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 CMC is close but no cigar. A congrats Hampton Roads/RIC/Raleigh kinda storm. Odd evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Someone needs to start a storm thread. Chuck? GFS might not do it actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, RDM said: Will that 1040 HP over NE stay in place long enough to allow the second L in the GOM to ride up the front and give us a double whammy? Probably wishful thinking, but the 540 line appears to show the cold flow down from the GL. And at the risk of being greedy, any chance of a phase? Seem to recall we often get scenarios when the first wave loads things up for the second wave to bomb out. Not saying that's gonna happen in this case, but some of the variables appear to be there (edit - STJ with fetch over Mexico, deepening trough over the Mississippi). The one near the gulf is going to die off and its going to crank off the carolinas. You can see it in the isobars. The only thing left is to close off h5 just south of us but we're getting ahead of ourselves. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: GFS might not do it actually. Shut up Chuck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: CMC is close but no cigar. A congrats Hampton Roads/RIC/Raleigh kinda storm. Odd evolution. It had an odd evolution in last nights 00z run as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Icon is basically a perfect h5 evolution... This would be a warning level event I need some weenie education. So in the figure above I see the 540 dm geopotential height line almost completely in Canada. I know that the 540 dm 1000 - 500 thickness line is generally considered the "baseline" rain snow line. So I do not understand why the geopotential height is ever very different from the 1000 - 500 thickness. Isn't 1000 hPa basically the surface? So wouldn't the thickness between 1000 hPa and 500 hPA be about the same as the height of the 500 hPa geopotential surface? I am obviously missing something but I am not sure what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, yoda said: It had an odd evolution in last nights 00z run as well And at 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Gfs is going to miss the phase. Flow is too flat in front. Damn daughter vortex... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 Very little interaction between the NS and SS on the GFS so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Close... but think that the GFS will be a close miss at 174 with no interaction at all. Nice HP though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: CMC is close but no cigar. A congrats Hampton Roads/RIC/Raleigh kinda storm. Odd evolution. Would make sense if you are one of those atmospheric memory kind of guys/gals. I am just glad we are actually tracking something at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 Wouldn’t take much correction on the GFS for a hit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Why is the FV3 such a mess? You get hours skipped and 6 hours before some panels come out. It is embarrassing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Why is the FV3 such a mess? You get hours skipped and 6 hours before some panels come out. It is embarrassing. Use the mag.ncep.noaa.gov link for the FV3 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 CMC has bowling ball triplets traversing the country. And there is a daughter vortex up north. Mother nature and big daddy PV are angry. Maybe old man winter can finally make an appearance? Would love to see the grandaddy of all storms. Meh that would require sister luck to help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just now, clskinsfan said: Why is the FV3 such a mess? You get hours skipped and 6 hours before some panels come out. It is embarrassing. Well the disclaimer states that due to the shutdown some runs may have missing panels or the model may be late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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