January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[BristowWx]

We are all just getting impatient. Who could blame us.  No guarantees in weather.  We could puke again in Feb and just go back and forth.  Then have huge negative departures in April and be just warm enough to rain.  

[nj2va]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

No, we don't want the core of the cold overhead. Best place is in between. I like looking at the mslp panels and seeing hp sprawled to the north. Living on edge is how most of our events work. 

Thanks, that was my thinking too but good to get some confirmation.  

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

We are all just getting impatient. Who could blame us.  No guarantees in weather.  We could puke again in Feb and just go back and forth.  Then have huge negative departures in April and be just warm enough to rain.  

Your zipper is down 

[nj2va]

Just now, BristowWx said:

We are all just getting impatient. Who could blame us.  No guarantees in weather.  We could puke again in Feb and just go back and forth.  Then have huge negative departures in April and be just warm enough to rain.  

You worry too much.  Everything is coming along just fine.  Confidence is pretty high that we see the much advertised pattern change...obviously patterns don’t 100% mean snow but its hard to imagine a shutout in the advertised LR patterns, especially when looking at the monthlies.  And yes, I know we should roll our eyes at the skills of models past two weeks but the weeklies have been consistently showing a pretty epic pattern setting in, and now the ensembles are picking up on that pattern beginning to take shape.  

[Wonderdog]

14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

We are all just getting impatient. Who could blame us.  No guarantees in weather.  We could puke again in Feb and just go back and forth.  Then have huge negative departures in April and be just warm enough to rain.  

Yeah,  don't worry about it. It's all coming together!

[clskinsfan]

29 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Sure does seem the -NAO wants to be a consistent feature on the LR guidance.  lines up well with the weeklies, monthlies, and seasonal forecasts for end of Jan and February. 

Is a -NAO dpendent on the -AO. The correlation between a -AO and a -NAO is obvious when looking at it historically. I am just guessing that a split PV causes displaced daughter PV's to force higher heights over Greenland. Obviously I dont know a whole lot. But the correlation between the two is staggering 

[Bob Chill]

@clskinsfan

The ao and nao share domain space so lots of overlap. The can be opposites on occasion but when either is strong they are usually in the same phase. 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Serious question...do we ever want to see a huge negative departure on the ensembles over us at LR?  That far into the future, wouldn’t that signal very anamolous cold which likely wouldn’t be stormy?  

I also find the temperature anamoly maps in the LR to not be a good indicator of what to expect....H5 is a better predictor I think but curious what PSU and others think.  

In general I agree with bob. Only exception would be if it's marginal native cold generated in the US under blocking absent any PV kinda like my scenario earlier.  2010 was an example of that. But it wouldn't be extreme departures.  Then the core of the "cold" can be over the mid Atlantic.  But no we don't want to see some big purple ball on the temp anomalies centered over us. That's a good look for the Carolinas. 

[frd]

There is a lot to think about here especially the last image of 1/20 and the vortice, it appears over the Atlantic, can't tell. 

Of course take this with a grain of salt but it appears down welling continues out in time

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Posted 1 minute ago

So much going on ! Folks moan prediction is always chaos theory after day 7 - blah blah, more wizened have extra clues.

 

Images for posterity..

 

On the evolutionary scale ...

 

Trop Impacts inbound - just going to happen in slow motion on NWP...

 

[cbmclean]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That's a good look for the Carolinas. 

So yes we do want to see a big purple ball over the MA.

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

So yes we do want to see a big purple ball over the MA.

Well of course you do. But this is the mid-Atlantic forum, so all the discussions here will cater to what is best for this region. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

So yes we do want to see a big purple ball over the MA.

You had your snow already. It's time for you to experience 40 degree rain for a while. I dated a girl in NC years ago. Anything under 50 is "deep winter" to them anyways. 

Kidding aside your as far south of me as Boston is north of me. What we need isn't even remotely the same. It would be very difficult for me to get much from a big snowstorm for you and I doubt any of my top 10 storms were very good for you. 

[Bob Chill]

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

In general I agree with bob. Only exception would be if it's marginal native cold generated in the US under blocking absent any PV kinda like my scenario earlier.  2010 was an example of that. But it wouldn't be extreme departures.  Then the core of the "cold" can be over the mid Atlantic.  But no we don't want to see some big purple ball on the temp anomalies centered over us. That's a good look for the Carolinas. 

Mslp panels are more important than departures. We can be in the purple no problem if the hp is located in upstate NY. But nasomuch if hp is centered in OH. When it comes to storm patterns, departures aren't nearly as important as where the pressure fields are. Obviously you know this. Just talking out loud. When it comes to ens guidance, surface temps are 4th on my list after h5, mslp, and 850s. 

[nj2va]

Probably belongs in banter or the digital snow thread but the CFS has a 977 low east of Ocean City on the 19th.  CCB over the area.  Lol.  Actually coincides with FV3 and EPS signal.  If only Mitch still posted here...

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Mslp panels are more important than departures. We can be in the purple no problem if the hp is located in upstate NY. But nasomuch if hp is centered in OH. When it comes to storm patterns, departures aren't nearly as important as where the pressure fields are. Obviously you know this. Just talking out loud. When it comes to ens guidance, surface temps are 4th on my list after h5, mslp, and 850s. 

100% true but I think he is talking generalities at range. From 10-15 days nailing exact pressure placements is difficult. But a big purple ball centered over is "usually" hints the boundary will be pretty far south of us and we probably have a high sitting over us. From 10+ it's all just generalities not details. But there are exceptions to every rule. 

[yoda]

6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Probably belongs in banter or the digital snow thread but the CFS has a 977 low east of Ocean City on the 19th.  CCB over the area.  Lol.  Actually coincides with FV3 and EPS signal.  If only Mitch still posted here...

Snow map or it doesn't count

[Bob Chill]

I agree with previous posts today about snowmaps and their limited usefulness but i really like meteogram output. Gives a concise snapshot of statistical probability at longer leads, timing of the potential event and also gives a defined range of possibilities. 

18z gefs meteo shows a majority of at least a trace but only 3 decent hits. Best chance we've had by far since early Dec though

[cbmclean]

 

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You had your snow already. It's time for you to experience 40 degree rain for a while. I dated a girl in NC years ago. Anything under 50 is "deep winter" to them anyways. 

Kidding aside your as far south of me as Boston is north of me. What we need isn't even remotely the same. It would be very difficult for me to get much from a big snowstorm for you and I doubt any of my top 10 storms were very good for you. 

Well I would say that the large scale pattern that we want is the similar for both you and I: ridge in the west, trough in the east, cold high up north, NA blocking etc..  Obviously I need more suppression.  

I want everybody to get their fix this 2nd half of winter.  Give me one more suppressed storm and you guys can have the rest.

 

[cbmclean]

37 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Well of course you do. But this is the mid-Atlantic forum, so all the discussions here will cater to what is best for this region. 

I was being silly.  I hang out here because the analysis is better, but I know I am just a visitor (a friendly one though).

[Fozz]

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You had your snow already. It's time for you to experience 40 degree rain for a while. I dated a girl in NC years ago. Anything under 50 is "deep winter" to them anyways. 

Kidding aside your as far south of me as Boston is north of me. What we need isn't even remotely the same. It would be very difficult for me to get much from a big snowstorm for you and I doubt any of my top 10 storms were very good for you. 

I'll gladly take another January 2000. 

[nj2va]

17 minutes ago, yoda said:

Snow map or it doesn't count

Don’t see snow maps but total QPF is about 1.8-1.9” so 18-22” with ratios.  

[Bob Chill]

Fv3 has the rare Canadian Block Bowling Ball pattern. Extrapolating d19 is a hecs

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Fv3 has the rare Canadian Block Bowling Ball pattern. Extrapolating d19 is a hecs

It tracks a couple upper lows right over us before that too. One thing about this winter...we have had so many perfect h5 tracks but the airmass was just puke. If we can just get some cold and continue the storm track with these qpf bombs we will win eventually.   I feel like there is an elevated risk of a hecs event this year just given that. 

[cbmclean]

21 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I'll gladly take another January 2000. 

Did the famed Carolina Crusher (Jan 25, 2000) do something up your way or was there another storm?

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It tracks a couple upper lows right over us before that too. One thing about this winter...we have had so many perfect h5 tracks but the airmass was just puke. If we can just get some cold and continue the storm track with these qpf bombs we will win eventually.   I feel like there is an elevated risk of a hecs event this year just given that. 

Yea, a lot of signs in our favor.  It's been a terrible 4 weeks for tracking. Itching to have an event thread where snow is a lock and how much is the only variable to discuss. Maybe we pull off a miracle next weekend. If not, it sure looks like we'll have another threat on the radar by the time we get to next weekend. There's not a person in our sub who's not sick and tired of talking or reading about d15+ pattern changes. Lol

[cbmclean]

17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Fv3 has the rare Canadian Block Bowling Ball pattern. Extrapolating d19 is a hecs

That is interesting.  I am not sure if I have ever seen that one before.

[yoda]

10 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Did the famed Carolina Crusher (Jan 25, 2000) do something up your way or was there another storm?

It depended on where you were in the LWX CWA.  I95 and east did well... i81 corridor did meh to okay 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, a lot of signs in our favor.  It's been a terrible 4 weeks for tracking. Itching to have an event thread where snow is a lock and how much is the only variable to discuss. Maybe we pull off a miracle next weekend. If not, it sure looks like we'll have another threat on the radar by the time we get to next weekend. There's not a person in our sub who's not sick and tired of talking or reading about d15+ pattern changes. Lol

Yea I can't wait to be analyzing a threat not just the pattern. But I do think this is it not another head fake. I never really got excited by the December head fake because the driving factors didn't align and it didn't fit analogs. Everything pointed towards mid January.  This time it feels right. Soi mjo both support. Analogs say it's go time.  And now guidance is showing exactly what the uber long range and analogs hinted at in the not as uber long range right on time.   I really think in another week of so we should start identifying specific threats even if this first wing and a prayer doesn't work. Hopefully this has legs. My god if all the guidance for February is even close it would be hard for us not to get at least one big snow this year.  

Given how crazy precip seems to be from any storm anymore...all we need is one big hit to get close to climo.  It seems like while we are losing some smaller storms big hecs level events are becoming more frequent. Then add in a couple modest events and it's at least a solid good year. 

[Fozz]

21 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Did the famed Carolina Crusher (Jan 25, 2000) do something up your way or was there another storm?

Yes, it was a huge storm here. Widespread 12-18” totals around DC and Baltimore.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

46 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I was being silly.  I hang out here because the analysis is better, but I know I am just a visitor (a friendly one though).

I hang out in this forum as well because the MA folks do great when it comes to pattern recognition.... and yes, we can both score on the right pattern, if there is a coastal miller A  that rides all the way up.