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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Have to like the look at the end of the run for the Euro. Actually a fairly strong signal for a storm around the 19/20th. But 14/15 days away so...

As good as it looks at D15...it really looks primed to get even better.  That Aleutian low is retrograding into a prime spot while ridging is building into GL.

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18 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

The Mozart-looking guy who tells AFUBN to shut-up all the time?  I have been wondering what the story is there.

Uhhh, may want to re-think that...(and yes, he does always say "shut up, Chuck!" :lol:).

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's a picture of BEETHOVEN good sir!!! (we're both huge fans of that composer so...get it right! :P)

Thanks, I was just about to mention it is Beethoven (one of my favorites, as well), but you ninja'd me!! :ph34r:

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

That’s an impressive signal on a MSLP normalized anomaly map for 15 days out.  

Ninja’d by LP08 

Several things to like though some are subtle. We have a subtle look of a shortwave which looks to be running in the southern stream. And though very subtle you can see what looks to be the signature of ridging pulling out from the +PNA following behind that shortwave.  Follow the higher heights to get a sense where that is. Also am liking the response we are seeing with the low pressure anomalies we see through that period of time at 500s. But again, 14 days away so much can and will change.

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15 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

The trend continues.. more -NAO on the NAM 84hr than GFS. If the NAO goes negative in the medium range, it would be a whole different mid/late January I think. 

Glad We are finally in the same universe on something. 

 

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18 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

The trend continues.. more -NAO on the NAM 84hr than GFS. If the NAO goes negative in the medium range, it would be a whole different mid/late January I think. 

Chuck’s on board. All it took was the 84 hour NAM

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Just now, nj2va said:

Looks like some phasing is going on at 162 if I’m reading the Vort panels right. 

Agree. H5 looks really close to how we can get an all snow event here. Unfortunately with 50 shortwaves in the flow we're not going to get any consistency any time soon

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Agree. H5 looks really close to how we can get an all snow event here. Unfortunately with 50 shortwaves in the flow we're not going to get any consistency any time soon

Exactly.  And the PAC is still pretty progressive at this point so I imagine the models will have a hard time until we’re under 100 hours.  

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Nice positive step as you said.  A busy track week in the cards this week imo.

The best part of the gfs was backing off on the lakes shortwave/slp as the southern wave tracks south of us. Thats really important. The only reasons the gfs wasn't a decent event were fairly weak shortwaves phasing and flow was squished a little too much from the baby tpv. Small changes and we get an advisory event and modest changes and we get a warning event. Good run.

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For the first time everything is in agreement on the pattern coming. The cfs has flipped again and now matches the euro U.K. And jma seasonal and sub seasonal guidance. Additionally that pattern is now showing up on the regular long range ensemble guidance. 

Lending more support is that the pattern drivers behind the change are finally happening and not just projections. The sswe has happened. The mjo is going into cold phases. And the soi has dropped.  Hopefully fun times ahead. 

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