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January Medium/Long Range Discussion

nj2va

By nj2va,
in Mid Atlantic

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, you and i loved it. Got 13" before the sleet and then another 3" or so 12 hours later when the ull moved through. Id gladly take a redux but as you go east...the excitement about the event quickly fades. Lol

Well the east has gotten theirs the last two winters, so...if such were to happen...law of averages? :D

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

GFS op want nothing to do with it tho in the beginning stages they are not too far apart at h5.  The only thing that lends any credence to the CMC solution is if you loop h5 it sure looks like a similar progression several systems have taken this season.  Closed low with upper ridge building over the top....

The tendency in El Niño winters is for the GFS to suck and the Euro to perform very well.  Also of note is that the CMC does seem to perform better during El Niño years as well.  As we transition into more of a Niño pattern the GFS may become increasingly useless.  

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol. Even if I was going to believe a day 16 op that's a very brief relax as there is both a building -nao and epo ridge. The next trough is already loading. But you know that. Some others might not. 

yeah....what I extrapolated in my own mind was NSFW.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Now at 366 on GEFS I can see a better look than 60 hours earlier.  

The GFS and even some members of the GEFS tend to not like pattern changes that are establishing in the 8-16 day window.  You’ll generally see at least 1 if not 2 of the Op runs and about 30% of the ensembles on a given day of model cycles try to break it back down to whatever the regime you’re coming out of is.  That’s been evident on the GFS the last 72 hours post 280-300 hours on some runs.  The ensemble average though is still generally showing the overall switch to the +PNA establishing 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

I get what you are saying. I really do. Short of the pv planting around the 50/50 you would prefer the pv/s to withdraw onto the other side of the globe because you feel that is where are best chances lie if we do get the projected pattern. But as with anything it has it potential drawbacks as well. And that is of temps. Now in the heart of winter temps are much more forgiving but as we move out of it the temps will get dicier and dicier. At this point I feel that we may see this general pattern set up for the long haul well into March. So though we can continue to score on what you want it will become harder and harder the later in the winter we move. I on the other hand, and I believe @C.A.P.E.as well, think our better odds lie elsewhere and that is of the pv planted on this side of the globe to provide better cold. So though we may see the pv potentially run interference at times we also have better cold throughout the period that increases our odds moving into spring over your scenario. Also the fact we are seeing a strong active SS and periods of a SE ridging leads me to believe would could potential score big as they duke it out with any southerly displaced PV.

But this is all just a matter of opinion and really doesn't mean squat because both scenarios have a good deal of potential with them and the weather is just going to do what it wants to do anyway.

There are a lot of variables. I don't want anyone to think I was saying having the PV evacuate our side is good as a general statement. If we don't have a great longwave pattern with blocking that would be total death to our chances.  My statements were specific to the projected blocking pattern. And if the main PV is on the other side that doesn't mean I want no vortices at all on our side.  But that's almost impossible. Even if there were none one in mid winter one would form naturally between highs up there. It might be weak but something.  And we better have a western ridge or else PAC jet blasting into weak sauce cold won't work. So this is a very pattern specific thing and nuanced. And it depends what we're hunting.  if we just want to see snow your idea is preferred. If we want a 20" storm then I think you want the slower less progressive pattern you get absent any significant PV around. 

Feb 2010 is the best example. I remember from like 14 days out when those storms first started showing up as unicorn threats many were worried about temps. Some runs had rain even with a good track but it was close. And I remember telling people that I wasn't that worried if the blocking was correct and we got a favorable track it would likely be just cold enough even without much real cold on our side. And that's exactly how it worked. None of those storms were cold. Just barely cold enough. Same with some of those 87 storms. 

This is likely biased by my elevation and location. I would rather fight marginal boundary temps than suppression and fast flow around a PV interfering with the stj. If I was in DC I might feel different so there is that too. 

No right or wrong there are problems with both and my idea is a go big of go home pattern because with a marginal air mass a weak system would likely have mixing issues. But the chances of getting a monster snowstorm is way higher in a blocking pattern without a strong PV around to run interference in the flow.  If we want a run of moderate cold storms like 2014 or 2015 your idea is the better chance. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Now at 366 on GEFS I can see a better look than 60 hours earlier.  

Gefs is showing a pretty strong case for a bit more pac puke before the good amplification sets in close to PSU magic 1/20 date. Makes sense because immediate flips are rare. Even late jan/early feb 2015 was a process to finally get our region in the game. Flip seemed abrubt but it was actually drawn out with a carving out of the ec trough. This isnt the same type of pattern change though so my only point is these things take time.

@leesburg 04 gefs says we're good d16 so we have until at least the 21st or so before we lose the good pattern

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The GFS and even some members of the GEFS tend to not like pattern changes that are establishing in the 8-16 day window.  You’ll generally see at least 1 if not 2 of the Op runs and about 30% of the ensembles on a given day of model cycles try to break it back down to whatever the regime you’re coming out of is.  That’s been evident on the GFS the last 72 hours post 280-300 hours on some runs.  The ensemble average though is still generally showing the overall switch to the +PNA establishing 

Thank you.  I didn’t know that.  EPS should be interesting 

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Chris78

Chris78

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Now at 366 on GEFS I can see a better look than 60 hours earlier.  

Absolutely.  This map tells me there plenty of cold air to tap. If we continue to get the storm tracks we've been getting we will be in good shape. I don't want or need vodka cold. I just want it cold enough to snow lol. With this look the storm track should be close to our area.

I think we have all seen what happens when we get extreme cold into our area. ( congrats North Carolina.)

gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_62.png

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Scud

Scud

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Absolutely.  This map tells me there plenty of cold air to tap. If we continue to get the storm tracks we've been getting we will be in good shape. I don't want or need vodka cold. I just want it cold enough to snow lol. With this look the storm track should be close to our area.

I think we have all seen what happens when we get extreme cold into our area. ( congrats North Carolina.)

I'm

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Scud

Scud

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Scud said:
12 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Absolutely.  This map tells me there plenty of cold air to tap. If we continue to get the storm tracks we've been getting we will be in good shape. I don't want or need vodka cold. I just want it cold enough to snow lol. With this look the storm track should be close to our area.

I think we have all seen what happens when we get extreme cold into our area. ( congrats North Carolina.)

I'm

You killing puppies.

 

13 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Absolutely.  This map tells me there plenty of cold air to tap. If we continue to get the storm tracks we've been getting we will be in good shape. I don't want or need vodka cold. I just want it cold enough to snow lol. With this look the storm track should be close to our area.

I think we have all seen what happens when we get extreme cold into our area. ( congrats North Carolina.)

gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_62.png

You killing puppies...

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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Posted
Posted

It's a warm pattern (step outside), the last few -NAO's haven't done much because of the pattern we are in with expanded midlatitude Hadley Cells. Last winter, the Atlantic 850mb High was +30% of normal! The Atlantic ocean, pacific ocean, and mountains of asia are like a ring of balance.. when the Atlantic ridge displaces north (-NAO), the Pacific hadley cell increases, that's my guess. That's obviously a very simple universal answer, but it seems to be what's happening now. +Mountain Torque over Asia associated with Stratosphere warming, if that's the cause, is also 1/3 of these midlatitude hadely cells amplified, so when Stratosphere warmings occur lately, it makes sense that there is initial +NAO (atlantic hadley cell) or +pacific hadley cell later on when it downwells. Just my guess. 

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cbmclean

cbmclean

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yep, i mean you seem like a good person and all and you're welcome here any time but when push comes to shove... i'm rooting for heavy cold rain in your yard. Nothing personal so dont take it the wrong way

I don't take it personally at all.  We all root for our own snow.  I am not greedy though.  Give me 6 inches and some cool-to-cold temps and I am a happy boy for the winter.  You guys can have the big ones.  If we got 20" we would resort to cannibalism on day 2.

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