poolz1 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It is. A lot of non storm solutions ongoing so anything that shows promise is good. I said it yesterday but the setup is really complicated with multiple shortwaves and both streams interacting. Far away from knowing how it will evolve. We dont do complicated well here so my hedge is on the non event side of things GFS op want nothing to do with it tho in the beginning stages they are not too far apart at h5. The only thing that lends any credence to the CMC solution is if you loop h5 it sure looks like a similar progression several systems have taken this season. Closed low with upper ridge building over the top.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I see nothing of interest. What am I missing? Still has the same idea with multiple shortwaves but this run has no interaction and flat flow in front so nothing gets going in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Just now, MD Snow said: Any thoughts why the GFS just spit out the solution that it did at 12z for next weekend? Am i wrong to think northern stream shot out a little in front of southern stream wave and didn't dig it up the coast? Kind of squashed it before it had time to take the full turn? Sorry for my amateur wording. It's a long way out. Changing variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I see nothing of interest. What am I missing? from this a few runs ago to this current run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looks like a lot of rain with bookend snow. The slp tucking and stacking like that would wreck the mids in between front end snow and ull taking over. Interesting solution but def not an all snow storm. Decent amount before it gets washed away, if you believe WxBell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: I DO NOT look at finer details on OP runs at such lead times. I look at bigger picture items. Flow above us is cleaner, less convoluted than a few runs ago. While I'm rooting this (and every other) opp for snow on....I'm just stating that I like the progression of the models. Thats all. Not in any way saying there will be a snowstorm, but theres enough to keep interest I see. So it looks better but shows nothing right now. I guess we will keep watching it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Scud said: It's a long way out. Changing variables. Agreed. It's still interesting to better understand the different options on the table with this opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: Any thoughts why the GFS just spit out the solution that it did at 12z for next weekend? Am i wrong to think northern stream shot out a little in front of southern stream wave and didn't dig it up the coast? Kind of squashed it before it had time to take the full turn? Sorry for my amateur wording. No sense overthinking anything. Gfs didnt phase anything and was weak sauce with both shortwaves. Both things can change dramatically over a weeks time. Northern stream shortwaves are notoriously hard to get right outside of 3-4 days. Just give it some time and see how it looks midweek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I see. So it looks better but shows nothing right now. I guess we will keep watching it. We've all been at this long enough to know that you dont always see a storm from 8 days out when a pattern change is underway. Hope you get my point. And again, I'll say that I'm not saying we have a storm.....just liking the progression as we come on long range discussion boards to discuss long range weather. At this juncture, I'm not expecting much if anything, but I'll take weak sauce over no sauce all the time...every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 To get a winter storm step one is cold air. That is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Scud said: To get a winter storm step one is cold air. That is coming. Sweet. Ji comment incoming. Great addition to his yearly CMC snow tally that never actually occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: We've all been at this long enough to know that you dont always see a storm from 8 days out when a pattern change is underway. Hope you get my point. And again, I'll say that I'm not saying we have a storm.....just liking the progression as we come on long range discussion boards to discuss long range weather. At this juncture, I'm not expecting much if anything, but I'll take weak sauce over no sauce all the time...every day. Agreed. I just looked quickly. Doing errands and driving. We shall see what comes of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Cmc is terribly far off from the progression with the Feb 2014 storm. Heavy front end thump, then extended dryslot drizzle, followed by ull action. Track is worse on the cmc but h5 reminds me of it anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Although I'm sure the changes were noticeable in advance although small the long range basically has flipped on a dime. I suspect any threat wont show itself at a long lead meaning more than 5-7 days. I simply think the models got punched in the nose and are in cobweb clearing mode right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 22 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I get what you are saying. I really do. Short of the pv planting around the 50/50 you would prefer the pv/s to withdraw onto the other side of the globe because you feel that is where are best chances lie if we do get the projected pattern. But as with anything it has it potential drawbacks as well. And that is of temps. Now in the heart of winter temps are much more forgiving but as we move out of it the temps will get dicier and dicier. At this point I feel that we may see this general pattern set up for the long haul well into March. So though we can continue to score on what you want it will become harder and harder the later in the winter we move. I on the other hand, and I believe @C.A.P.E.as well, think our better odds lie elsewhere and that is of the pv planted on this side of the globe to provide better cold. So though we may see the pv potentially run interference at times we also have better cold throughout the period that increases our odds moving into spring over your scenario. Also the fact we are seeing a strong active SS and periods of a SE ridging leads me to believe would could potential score big as they duke it out with any southerly displaced PV. But this is all just a matter of opinion and really doesn't mean squat because both scenarios have a good deal of potential with them and the weather is just going to do what it wants to do anyway. The reality- at least it appears to be the case right now, is there are going to be multiple daughter vortices- probably 3, for awhile. And as modeled, one piece will be on our side. It is what it is, but I actually like it for now, and looking through the last couple GFS runs, you can see the TPV shedding off lobes, or smaller vortices, which rotate into the 50-50 region and produce/enhance lower pressure there towards day 15. Its a great mechanism IMO to keep lower heights in that region with blocking over top. The TPV a good feature to have around as long is it doesn't go bonkers and drop down to Toronto or something. Now, as things progress and if we do get a stout -AO/EPO/NAO then as PSU said, we probably wont need(or have at that point) a TPV in our part of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Cmc is terribly far off from the progression with the Feb 2014 storm. Heavy front end thump, then extended dryslot drizzle, followed by ull action. Track is worse on the cmc but h5 reminds me of it anyways I hated that storm, lol. Sucked here. I will be rooting for a different evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Be glad there is a great ridge forming in the West. Be glad we will no longer have a sw flow aloft. A changing pattern indeed. We simply need the ingredients. First cold air, check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 I hated that storm, lol. Sucked here. I will be rooting for a different evolution.Got 18 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: 6z gefs starts to lower heights near 50/50 towards the end. First sign of that. Very good look at the end. Overnight EPS was also showing a possible 50/50 towards day 10. The general setup kind of caught my eye for potential. But day 15 so who knows. 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: New MJO plots look pretty good. GEFS and Euro agree on a strong push into 8 and then a move into the COD. Here's the euro...getting closer to a decent move into phase 1 Was discussing this yesterday and watching how the MJO was responding/changing run over run. We continue to see it move towards the final solution I believe we will see which I have seen innumerable times over the years. And that is a good move into at least 1 if not even into 2 before it dives down into the COD. Once there if it does cycle back out (which I think it will) it will most likely be into 6 or 7. If it does emerge in a lower phase it will be of a low magnitude and quickly move out into the colder phases. 1 hour ago, Ji said: Eps snowfall map though 360 is a disaster Another disaster Ji? Go ahead call the Red Cross again. I am sure you have their number on speed dial. 58 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It doesn't look any worse than the last 2 runs. I honestly wish snowfall mean maps didn't exist. Has little value unless there is a persistent, discrete threat showing up on guidance inside of day 10 IMO. Bite your tongue. Love looking at them and day dreaming about the possibilities. Of course it doesn't hurt that we can make fun of the weenies that meltdown over them when their digital snow gets taken away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: I hated that storm, lol. Sucked here. I will be rooting for a different evolution. It was a weird one. Rain to the north as the low started to occlude iirc. We maximized the waa piece west of the bay. It was a disjointed storm that was a moisture bomb on the front end. Wasnt cold tho and the dripping dryslot all afternoon took some of the fun out of it. I had a great 2am dogwalk though. Was ripping until the flip to sleet shortly after sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 32 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Actually had this problem in a Calculus or Physics course in college. A curve ball does "break" and as I recall it can be proven with basic differential equations used in fluid mechanics, and a little trig. At the risk of saying the obvious... If a curve ball didn't break, airplanes wouldn't fly. Same principles at play. Instead of the shape of the wing's cross section creating "lift" (actually creating pressure differences) the friction of the spinning baseball creates the pressure differences. Used to be a great video of Gaylord Perry talking about the physics of his spitball, which befuddled hitters back in the 60's and 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Looks like a lot of rain with bookend snow. The slp tucking and stacking like that would wreck the mids in between front end snow and ull taking over. Interesting solution but def not an all snow storm. We would take that storm as is in a heartbeatBut in reality...its the worst model showing a great solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I hated that storm, lol. Sucked here. I will be rooting for a different evolution. Got 18 inches lol Yea, you and i loved it. Got 13" before the sleet and then another 3" or so 12 hours later when the ull moved through. Id gladly take a redux but as you go east...the excitement about the event quickly fades. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I hated that storm, lol. Sucked here. I will be rooting for a different evolution. Got 18 inches lol Had 4-5" of heavy snow that flipped like a switch to heavy rain and washed most of it away. Nothing but flurries on the back end. Awful storm in what was otherwise a great period of winter weather here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Looking at the lag effect, and allowing time for the Pac to retrograde, the 18 th to the 21 st really seems like go time. Earthlight posted about that just now. It also fits in with HM's recent posts too, regarding the progression of the Pacific, strat warming, SPV splits and the and HL as well. . Posted 3 minutes ago 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yep. The ridge is nice out west just need the sw to dig more. From Earthlight at 33andrain <<< After the 13th I expect another brief period of transition. That ridge may roll eastward into the Central US while the larger Pac pattern retrogrades and reshuffles. Don’t anticipate a torch, but definitely a brief breather before we really crank. All in all, no changes to my thoughts. We are right on schedule. >>> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Some really great pattern changes have occurred. It was warm until January 16th 1985 at GSO. Then -8F on the 21st. Google it. Strap in folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 16 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Although I'm sure the changes were noticeable in advance although small the long range basically has flipped on a dime. I suspect any threat wont show itself at a long lead meaning more than 5-7 days. I simply think the models got punched in the nose and are in cobweb clearing mode right now Fair way of putting it. Even when the eyes clear, i'd be cautious at looking too far out....no matter how much we like what we see (or dont). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 This is not a terrible look at H144 from the UKMET. That 1036 high arching down from Hudson's Bay is in a good spot and the upper plains s/w looks ready to drop into the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It was a weird one. Rain to the north as the low started to occlude iirc. We maximized the waa piece west of the bay. It was a disjointed storm that was a moisture bomb on the front end. Wasnt cold tho and the dripping dryslot all afternoon took some of the fun out of it. I had a great 2am dogwalk though. Was ripping until the flip to sleet shortly after sunrise. The pattern that winter was such that an amped storm would usually cut. Monster -EPO. No NA blocking at all. That storm/set up and the results were probably as good as gets for a big event in that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Gfs shows pattern change back to warm by jan 21 lol. Hi leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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