PDIII Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Shut... Out... Pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Even HM having some issues with the pattern. When HM has difficulty you know things in the modeling world are whacky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 36 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Over on the NY thread Don Sutherland notes that we have tied the record for number if consecutive days in phase 5: 12 days. Yay. @Maestrobjwa there’s your answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That look up top and in the PAC is great. If the run went out another 72 hours I have no doubt a trough would develop. But now we need that look to hold and start moving closer in time. Weak trough on the means is just smoothing with the spread. A number of decent height patterns on this panel. Since i started to melt today it would be perfect irony if tonight marks the beginning of a shift towards a better pattern and this time it holds into the med range. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 43 minutes ago, pasnownut said: @Maestrobjwa there’s your answer Sweet mercy above...and what year was that, anyway? ETA: It was Dec. 1994. Ugh...I never like it when any correlation to a crap winter shows up! Correlation doesn't mean causation, of course...but even so...ack!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 My problem with LR models is that they have a trough forming in western Europe when the +PNA appears -- not going to happen (European trough). There is also something happening beyond ENSO climo that is pushing the trough north in the Pacific, -PNA in verification. A lot of times when the upper latitudes are favorable and the EC has above average, it doesn't adjust for the indexes. The NAO signal is really bad right now, strong +NAO, with no signs of moderation. Any -AO/-NAO would be inorganic Stratosphere caused "just appearing", not really a favorable position. A lot of times January repeats in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Bob, arguably if your melt started the change you should have melted...two weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Things will change and we continue to move forward. Strong - NAO coming Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 35m35 minutes ago More Back to the Atlantic troposphere, that block formation near the UK is getting the green light from the strat above. Once the Pacific to N. America flow slows down and buckles, the direction of wave breaking in the Atlantic will shift equatorward. That's when the NAO tanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Normally this look would invoke excitement with the h5 pass in the heart of winter. Not in the winter of 18/19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Cmc looks a little crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 8 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Cmc looks a little crazy Jan 9. Heavy rain. Soooooo crazy. Eta: Probably be the first time in years it’s right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Gefs upped the ante from 18z. Dropping hints that the TPV might establish itself near Hudson. Coldest run in a long time. Especially for 15+ day leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Jan 9 keeps popping up. Sorry fairfax county east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Euro is all snow for a good part of our area for jan 9-10. Reminds me of that big storm we had back in Feb a few years ago with a west track but serious CAD kept it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro is all snow for a good part of our area for jan 9-10. Reminds me of that big storm we had back in Feb a few years ago with a west track but serious CAD kept it snow. Feb 21st 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 wow 12 plus inches for Philly. Only 4-8 for us:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ji said: wow 12 plus inches for Philly. Only 4-8 for us:( Better than 0 inches for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Better than 0 inches for usOk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 If I am reading it correctly Jan 9 is a decent hit for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 On the 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 5 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs upped the ante from 18z. Dropping hints that the TPV might establish itself near Hudson. Coldest run in a long time. Especially for 15+ day leads. Lets hope the GEFS is sniffing out our epic pattern change better than the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 24 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I know its rain verbatim but sure pretty to look at . This storm has been 5 days out for 3 days. It keeps getting slower and slower. The good solutions we were seeing had better NS interaction. Latest runs we are seeing that pulling further to the north. Also not seeing the greatest response from the surface low. Something to keep an eye on though when you see a closed low with such a track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Plenty of time for that to trend south. Congrats NC? eta: Kuchera output is basically showing a foot + for the DC/Balt region and surrounding counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Weeklies tonight are going to be a train wreck and probably cause some panic. But I can't imagine they go anywhere good when we already know day 15 starts here... EPS is a complete disaster. No way to sugarcoat that mess. just have to hope the gefs is sniffing out the pattern better. Amazing how opposite the EPS and gefs are after day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 6z GFS has a 24+ hour snowstorm in a week for DC area. Great H5 pass but .... Don't get me wrong it's great to have a storm to track but I hope we'll be tracking for more than one model cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 41 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: 6z GFS has a 24+ hour snowstorm in a week for DC area. Great H5 pass but .... Don't get me wrong it's great to have a storm to track but I hope we'll be tracking for more than one model cycle. In 4 hours it will be totally different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 IMO the differences between the Eps and GEFS are largely MJO driven. Eps makes sense if the wave only gets to phase 6 and then dies in the COD. GEFS makes sense with a continued progression into phases 6 and 7. And it’s not weenieish to say the GEFS has been much better with the amplitude and progression, or lack of it, over the last few weeks vs the Eps. But as of yesterday at least, GEFS showed the wave getting to phase 7 with strong amplitudes while the Eps again killed it in phase 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 In 4 hours it will be totally different. When big snowstorms show up in disaster patterns..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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