January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Scraff]

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

Tonight's CMC after Day 7 is LOLworthy

We laugh.

 

Eta: We cry. 

[psuhoffman]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Great for you if that works out....but do me a favor and cite a weak el nino event during which it did.

Tough for SNE to be screwed consistently with a prevalent n stream.

I think you are right in general "Lately" in that the last few weak ninos definitely favored New England.  But over the larger data set there were quite a few snows in weak el nino's that favored the mid atlantic over New England.  I think there was one in 1954, a couple in 1964 and 1970, 1977 had some very suppressed systems, and 1980 was better south of DC even and really screwed my area in northern MD over.  Even 2015 after the snow blitz in New England shifted south and from Mid Feb to Mid March targeted this area with several storms that were less in New England.  So while I agree that overall given the last 3 examples are had similar target areas you are right in your suggestions its not universal enough to assume each storm will be a miller b or target to the north.  That said...if that were true I think this area would be worse off then you think.  Southwest of Philly really does not do well with miller b storms.  Its very rare to get anything significant from a pure miller b in DC.  Luckily there is enough STJ action this year that I don't think it will be purely miller b's.  I think there will be some and they will favor NYC to BOS but there will likely be a few more southern sliders and miller a systems as well and those might favor the mid atlantic.  In the end I would favor New England to do better overall...you can get both the miller a and b storms after all...but enough people in here know local climo and just how BAD miller b storms are here and so mentioning them is going to make most in here nervous. 

[pasnownut]

12 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

If someone offered me 50% of whatever Boston ends up with this winter I think I would take that deal.  That’s just me though.  

No doubt.  I just hope as things look to be turning the corner, that some don't set too high a bar.  Most here know that the ratio of digital vs actual snow can lead to letdowns of epic proportions.  I'm happy to see things getting better and will be satisfied w/ anything close or above climo.  Pattern sure offers dreamers chance to dream big though.

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I am kind of curious what PSU thinks of the whole situation.  He hasn;t posted much since the whiplash shift to happy time.

Why would my thoughts have changed any, I expected a shift to a better pattern around mid January and now the guidance is showing that.  I think the fact the soi is tanking and the MJO is finally getting into cold phases makes this pattern flip more credible.  I never bought into the late December early January period because of that.  It wasn't time yet.  This fits.  But beyond that we aren't in range of discreet specific threats yet.  The day 7 thing is complicated and so its way too soon to look at details.  I agree with what others have said that we usually don't do well on the front end of patterns so expectations should be in check until we get some cold established in the pattern.  Doesn't mean we can't score, 66 flipped and we got several storms right away, and that was a strat warm year so maybe.  But I will be patient as this develops before getting nervous that it won't produce. 

[cbmclean]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Why would my thoughts have changed any, I expected a shift to a better pattern around mid January and now the guidance is showing that.  I think the fact the soi is tanking and the MJO is finally getting into cold phases makes this pattern flip more credible.  I never bought into the late December early January period because of that.  It wasn't time yet.  This fits.  But beyond that we aren't in range of discreet specific threats yet.  The day 7 thing is complicated and so its way too soon to look at details.  I agree with what others have said that we usually don't do well on the front end of patterns so expectations should be in check until we get some cold established in the pattern.  Doesn't mean we can't score, 66 flipped and we got several storms right away, and that was a strat warm year so maybe.  But I will be patient as this develops before getting nervous that it won't produce. 

Just making sure you weren't being quiet because you saw something that was bothering you.

[WhiteoutMD]

19 minutes ago, yoda said:

Tonight's CMC after Day 7 is LOLworthy

funny not so much.  

[pasnownut]

Man the 1/13 storm really has my interest.  It really is close to something nice.  Liking the trends on that one.  LP now off the carolinas and 540's into western GA to southern VA.  Not going to parse every detail at this range, but its tiptoeing its about 2 days away from being a storm threat IMO.

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Man the 1/13 storm really has my interest.  It really is close to something nice.  Liking the trends on that one.  LP now off the carolinas and 540's into western GA to southern VA.  Not going to parse every detail at this range, but its tiptoeing its about 2 days away from being a storm threat IMO.

Northern stream wrecks it for everyone though... not sure about it being a threat tbh

Wait are you talking about the CMC?  I am talking about the GFS

[pasnownut]

23 minutes ago, yoda said:

Tonight's CMC after Day 7 is LOLworthy

500's closed off for 24 hrs from central va to right over my rooftop.  

[WhiteoutMD]

The nation for the most part drys out after tomorrow for the next two weeks.  This would  suck if we go dry and average temps after QPF booms for the last year.https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019010500&fh=264

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Northern stream wrecks it for everyone though... not sure about it being a threat tbh

At this far away....I'm liking where its at.  Not sure what you dont like.

[pasnownut]

and like i said, I'm just looking from "afar".  WAY to early to get hair in a bunch.  Just go w/ the evolution and see where this train takes us.

[yoda]

End of the GFS has a pretty decent storm brewing in the South with a decent HP moving along in tandem... would probably be a nice storm

[nj2va]

10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Man the 1/13 storm really has my interest.  It really is close to something nice.  Liking the trends on that one.  LP now off the carolinas and 540's into western GA to southern VA.  Not going to parse every detail at this range, but its tiptoeing its about 2 days away from being a storm threat IMO.

Completely agree.  It has my attention and while the GFS continues to be NS dominant, I thought this run took a step towards the Euro showing a SS idea.  Something to track even if its convoluted and difficult.  

[RDM]

33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm not as picky about my snow...but just an FYI the January 2005 storm dropped about 3-6" across most of this forum depending on location and 90% of the people in here consider that storm a total disaster and hate it because just northeast of here got 1-2 feet.  Same in 2015 BEFORE the pattern shifted south in mid February...during that run of storms that were slamming New England with 12" plus and this area was getting 1-3 and 2-4" storms you would have thought we were having the worst winter ever.  No one in here was satisfied with their 3" when NYC to BOS was getting 20".  So when you say "it will be plowable" just a warning if DC gets like 8"+ most are usually satisfied and "OK" even if other places get more...but if New England is getting 20" and DC is getting 3-4" most in here will be in a total meltdown temper tantrum of rage.  I am not saying DC needs to be the bullseye like in 2010 for most here to be happy but it can't be a BIG disparity or else they will feel ripped off and disappointed even if they end up slightly above average on snow.  So I am not sure exactly what you mean...but just letting you some here have a pretty high bar for this winter to be satisfied and if Boston ends up with 70" and this region in general ends up with like 25 they will not be happy even if that is slightly above average.

ETA:  I had not read the thread the last hour and see things may have got a little testy...I am not trying to jump into any fight, I was just letting you know what the mindset and bar is for general snowfall satisfaction around here...

PSU - Well said, right down to the relative percentages and thresholds.  You get my vote for being the conscious of the MA sub.  Hats off, sincerely.  

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, frd said:

Hmmm

 

I am really fed up with the modoki vs basin wide nino debate because it's not intellectually honest imo.  There seem to be two running definitions of what a modoki is.  The one that seemed to be the norm 15 years ago and a newer technical one that requires there be colder waters in the eastern equatorial pacific to be modoki.  That's fine, I really don't care what we call things.  That is a stupid debate to have.  BUT the problem is the implications involved here.  By that newer definition there are actually very few real modoki events.  And the people saying "this isnt a modoki" seem to be doing it because they were arguing against the snowy forecasts.  OK except the perception that a modoki is snowy in the east is based on years like 2003 and 2010 which ARENT modoki under their definition either.  They were basin wide events by the definition being used above.  The most "modoki" in the last 20 years was 2005 and that was the least snowy of the bunch in the mid atlantic. 

Just to illustrate this... when I first started reading about all this back in the early 2000s a modoki or central based nino was any nino that originated in the central pac and propagated eastward.  A normal nino originates off south america and propagates westward.  But a modoki typically during December and January becomes basin wide before usually collapsing back to the central pacific later in winter.  I will use 2002/3 as an example. 

This was that nino during its formative stage in the summer.

That has the modoki look but then look what that nino looked like by early January...

It had that look from late October through January as MOST weak/moderate ninos that originate from the central pacific do...they usually propagate east and become basin wide in nature.

but then in February they often regress back to a central based and the guidance suggests this year will do this in Feb/Mar also

So again... I don't give a crap what anyone wants to call these things.  Whatever...but its very dishonest to be misusing labels to manipulate a point.  They are saying "its not a modoki" to blast people that were calling for snow because of a "modoki" but by their definitions their analogs and the snowiest years weren't modoki anyways. 

Truth is I think a weak/moderate basin wide event is favorable also.  Even 2016 the problem wasn't the location of the forcing.  Once the pattern flipped we had a trough in the east a LOT from mid January through March.  But the nino was so strong it just flooded the conus with warmth and overwhelmed the pattern.  But if 2016 had been slightly weaker we probably would have had a few more snowstorms. 

Either way I wish everyone would settle on one definition for these phenomenon because this debate has gotten old and I am tired of it. 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Completely agree.  It has my attention and while the GFS continues to be NS dominant, I thought this run took a step towards the Euro showing a SS idea.  Something to track even if its convoluted and difficult.  I think too many here give up when they don’t see an OP past 200 hours spit out a surface solution depicting a snowstorm over their house.

Its kinda hard to get excited on the CMC when it shows 40s and 50s during the "storm"

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Completely agree.  It has my attention and while the GFS continues to be NS dominant, I thought this run took a step towards the Euro showing a SS idea.  Something to track even if its convoluted and difficult.  I think too many here give up when they don’t see an OP past 200 hours spit out a surface solution depicting a snowstorm over their house.

toggle through last few runs and watch the evolution.  Trends are what we want at this juncture, and I like what I see.  If others disagree...that's fine.  

On that note, I'm off to bed.  Seeing that was a good enough way to end the night.

 

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Its kinda hard to get excited on the CMC when it shows 40s and 50s during the "storm"

I haven’t seen the CMC but was talking the GFS.  

[yoda]

Just now, nj2va said:

I haven’t seen the CMC but was talking the GFS.  

He, as in pasnownut, was talking about the CMC

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

He, as in pasnownut, was talking about the CMC

  3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Its kinda hard to get excited on the CMC when it shows 40s and 50s during the "storm"

Yes....I was.  Someone needs sleep and not just me.  gnight all.

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

He, as in pasnownut, was talking about the CMC

Next weekend is a long shot but certainly something trackable and could trend in our favor which was my point.  It’d be a bonus going into the pattern change.  Analyzing the GGEM OP at 200 hours isn’t worth it.  

[SnowGolfBro]

If we score anything before the last half of the month it would be a bonus IMO. By next weekend i think the tracking of fantasy storms will get good

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not sure what you are getting at here exactly. I think we all understand that Miller B events tend to be favored in weak Nino years, but certainly that is not exclusively the case. But more to the point, the author of the discussion referenced in that post simply suggested that above normal precip may be favored in the Mid Atlantic region during weeks 3-4, and given the setup a winter storm is possible for the east coast. What specifically are you asking be cited?

I may have misread that passage...I though it was implying an active pattern for the mid atl, and cold and dry across New England.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm not as picky about my snow...but just an FYI the January 2005 storm dropped about 3-6" across most of this forum depending on location and 90% of the people in here consider that storm a total disaster and hate it because just northeast of here got 1-2 feet.  Same in 2015 BEFORE the pattern shifted south in mid February...during that run of storms that were slamming New England with 12" plus and this area was getting 1-3 and 2-4" storms you would have thought we were having the worst winter ever.  No one in here was satisfied with their 3" when NYC to BOS was getting 20".  So when you say "it will be plowable" just a warning if DC gets like 8"+ most are usually satisfied and "OK" even if other places get more...but if New England is getting 20" and DC is getting 3-4" most in here will be in a total meltdown temper tantrum of rage.  I am not saying DC needs to be the bullseye like in 2010 for most here to be happy but it can't be a BIG disparity or else they will feel ripped off and disappointed even if they end up slightly above average on snow.  So I am not sure exactly what you mean...but just letting you some here have a pretty high bar for this winter to be satisfied and if Boston ends up with 70" and this region in general ends up with like 25 they will not be happy even if that is slightly above average.

ETA:  I had not read the thread the last hour and see things may have got a little testy...I am not trying to jump into any fight, I was just letting you know what the mindset and bar is for general snowfall satisfaction around here...

No, not testy at all....its all good. 

I here you....I'd be miserable if I got 4", and someplace relatively close by got 15".

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is a modoki...the folks claiming that region 1.2 needs to be in negative territory can pound sand. This has been structured just like all of the favorable weak el minos of the past. Every single event has periods where region 1.2 spiked because the evolution is such that WWB transport warmer waters west as el nino matures. If you of back and compete the evolution of the weekly ENSO region temps, 2006 saw region 1.2 above 1C for weeks on end. This one has not done that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am really fed up with the modoki vs basin wide nino debate because it's not intellectually honest imo.  There seem to be two running definitions of what a modoki is.  The one that seemed to be the norm 15 years ago and a newer technical one that requires there be colder waters in the eastern equatorial pacific to be modoki.  That's fine, I really don't care what we call things.  That is a stupid debate to have.  BUT the problem is the implications involved here.  By that newer definition there are actually very few real modoki events.  And the people saying "this isnt a modoki" seem to be doing it because they were arguing against the snowy forecasts.  OK except the perception that a modoki is snowy in the east is based on years like 2003 and 2010 which ARENT modoki under their definition either.  They were basin wide events by the definition being used above.  The most "modoki" in the last 20 years was 2005 and that was the least snowy of the bunch in the mid atlantic. 

Just to illustrate this... when I first started reading about all this back in the early 2000s a modoki or central based nino was any nino that originated in the central pac and propagated eastward.  A normal nino originates off south america and propagates westward.  But a modoki typically during December and January becomes basin wide before usually collapsing back to the central pacific later in winter.  I will use 2002/3 as an example. 

This was that nino during its formative stage in the summer.

That has the modoki look but then look what that nino looked like by early January...

It had that look from late October through January as MOST weak/moderate ninos that originate from the central pacific do...they usually propagate east and become basin wide in nature.

but then in February they often regress back to a central based and the guidance suggests this year will do this in Feb/Mar also

So again... I don't give a crap what anyone wants to call these things.  Whatever...but its very dishonest to be misusing labels to manipulate a point.  They are saying "its not a modoki" to blast people that were calling for snow because of a "modoki" but by their definitions their analogs and the snowiest years weren't modoki anyways. 

Truth is I think a weak/moderate basin wide event is favorable also.  Even 2016 the problem wasn't the location of the forcing.  Once the pattern flipped we had a trough in the east a LOT from mid January through March.  But the nino was so strong it just flooded the conus with warmth and overwhelmed the pattern.  But if 2016 had been slightly weaker we probably would have had a few more snowstorms. 

Either way I wish everyone would settle on one definition for these phenomenon because this debate has gotten old and I am tired of it. 

Great post. Spot-on.

[PhineasC]

I for one am stoked over this technical El Nino definition talk. Hopefully this El Nino will achieve truly perfect textbook status so we can know this winter went down as the most epic pattern of all time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think you are right in general "Lately" in that the last few weak ninos definitely favored New England.  But over the larger data set there were quite a few snows in weak el nino's that favored the mid atlantic over New England.  I think there was one in 1954, a couple in 1964 and 1970, 1977 had some very suppressed systems, and 1980 was better south of DC even and really screwed my area in northern MD over.  Even 2015 after the snow blitz in New England shifted south and from Mid Feb to Mid March targeted this area with several storms that were less in New England.  So while I agree that overall given the last 3 examples are had similar target areas you are right in your suggestions its not universal enough to assume each storm will be a miller b or target to the north.  That said...if that were true I think this area would be worse off then you think.  Southwest of Philly really does not do well with miller b storms.  Its very rare to get anything significant from a pure miller b in DC.  Luckily there is enough STJ action this year that I don't think it will be purely miller b's.  I think there will be some and they will favor NYC to BOS but there will likely be a few more southern sliders and miller a systems as well and those might favor the mid atlantic.  In the end I would favor New England to do better overall...you can get both the miller a and b storms after all...but enough people in here know local climo and just how BAD miller b storms are here and so mentioning them is going to make most in here nervous. 

And 2009-2010 has some mild days.....but how would you characterize the winter?

The focus of 1977 was SNE.

1964 was moderate, so that is irrelevent.

1980 was pretty iffy, as it was only recently reclassified an el nino, but fine....I defer on 1954, too since I don't care to research it. That may have been an east-based event, similar to 2006-07, though.

No absolutes, but sne is strongly favored in weak el nino.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, this gov. shutdown is killing me...no MEI data available right now, but its been running very low this year, like 1969. I wonder if 1954 and 1980 had higher MEI values.

Maybe we can check sometime within the next year