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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va

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6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

See...I know for me, the shutout pattern is more peaceful. The "Hey look over there" pattern bothers me more because of the close misses that can ensue (especially when you've had a run of those the last couple of years) Guess it feels better if we're all kinda disappointed together, lol (and that we've earned a good hit!)

I used to feel that way, but since I have a ski pass this year, I'll take near misses since we still get cold and the northeast resorts will do well.

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the EPS went from crap to gold in like 2 days. Response to SOI, MJO, SSW.....and next week was suppose to be 60s and warm...now below average and snow. the pattern shift might start January 7th LOL...right where the weeklikes had it 4-5 weeks ago

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

EPS seems to be bringing the epic pattern from the weeklies forward in time. 12z is pretty damn sweet at the end.

Maybe I am optimistic, after the really incredible 24 hour change, but my point is the best storm potential is yet to arrive. 

We should really have multiple oppurtunities to score.    

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Your call for a quicker flip looks to be a good one.  EPS starts flipping the PAC at D9 on the 12z.  #within10days

I really like the PV dropping south this run. Its also more intense/expansive. We have a daughter vortex on our side, and she will surely shed off some...granddaughters?

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I really like the PV dropping south this run. Its also more intense/expansive. We have a daughter vortex on our side, and she will surely shed off some...granddaughters?

We’re about to have a PV family reunion over NA...

No doubt huge changes over the last 24-36 hours...as PSU pointed out, I think we’ve turned the corner.  

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Starting to look like the pattern flip will happen on Jan 15th give or take a few days. I thinK PSU and a few others have been keying on this date for like a month or more.  If it happens that way then they deserve some praise for sticking to their predictions even during the “dark ages” of the last week lol

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16 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

-NAO, +PNA, -AO.. 

f168-1.gif

This look should continue to improve significantly in time, although it is remarkable where we were 24 hours ago. The improvements are simply stunning.

We expected them, based on various factors, but to see concensus and have the models show it and move the time up to Jan 15 th, that is awesome !   

 

 

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10 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Starting to look like the pattern flip will happen on Jan 15th give or take a few days. I thinK PSU and a few others have been keying on this date for like a month or more.  If it happens that way then they deserve some praise for sticking to their predictions even during the “dark ages” of the last week lol

 

Just now, frd said:

This look should continue to improve significantly in time, although it is remarkable where we were 24 hours ago. The improvements are simply remarkable. 

We expected them, based on various factors, but to see concensus and have the models show it and move the time up to Jan 15 th, that is awesome !   

Certainly have been some more encouraging signs in the last 48 hours, but I'd strongly caution against spiking the football.  Any snow before the last week-10 days of the month is probably bonus. At this point I'd like to see continued in stability in the ensemble systems forecasting a pattern change +/- the 15th and no signs that it turns into a 2-3 day transitory "good" pattern that's immediately flushed back out by Pac garbage.  If things are still stable and looking good beyond the end of the forecast range in 5-7 more days, I think we can start expecting some legit winter.   

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