Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 57 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Talking about the Jan 4 event or just in general? In general. The d10 upper level pattern is disgusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: In general. The d10 upper level pattern is disgusting. EPS looks less disgusting than the op at day 10. So there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Bob chill tomorrow will talk about how great the weeklies look week 3 and 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Pac has been relentless since the good pattern since the first 10 days of Dec. We hoped the flip would be shortlived but here we are with 2 weeks behind us and 2 weeks in front of us on the panels. I'm not going to trust any long range looks for the better. The base state has shown itself and will prob continue longer than we think/hope. Nino climo is for two base states. This isn't that unusual. We had the early cold with snow chances and then the big warm up that are both staples of weak to moderate ninos. The flip back is usually between January 15 at the earliest and February 1 at the latest. It would have been nice to flip early but I guess that was too much to ask. What hurt is more was not cashing in on a couple good threats early in the month. 1 minute ago, Ji said: Bob chill tomorrow will talk about how great the weeklies look week 3 and 4 The weeklies weren't that off on the global longwave pattern. But they were too quick to pull the PAC trough back and allowing a troug into the east. Instead the PAC trough keeps crashing the party and shifting the whole longwave pattern east putting the ridge over us. Ironically the gefs does that but without any downstream reaction. The EPS looks like it wants to undercut the ridge if the PAC would just back off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ji said: Bob chill tomorrow will talk about how great the weeklies look week 3 and 4 Weeks 55-60 promise to look solid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 something to keep in mind regarding the mjo and soi. There is a correlation between the mjo being weaker and the soi in nino phase. The soi being in a Nina state probably aided the amplitude of the mjo. But that means as the soi crashes (we want that) it likely will kill the mjo wave also. But if we get an soi crash and the mjo dies that isn't a bad thing. That should favor a typical nino pattern to resume. If we resume a nino base state we shouldn't need mjo help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Nino climo is for two base states. This isn't that unusual. We had the early cold with snow chances and then the big warm up that are both staples of weak to moderate ninos. The flip back is usually between January 15 at the earliest and February 1 at the latest. It would have been nice to flip early but I guess that was too much to ask. What hurt is more was not cashing in on a couple good threats early in the month. The weeklies weren't that off on the global longwave pattern. But they were too quick to pull the PAC trough back and allowing a troug into the east. Instead the PAC trough keeps crashing the party and shifting the whole longwave pattern east putting the ridge over us. Ironically the gefs does that but without any downstream reaction. The EPS looks like it wants to undercut the ridge if the PAC would just back off. The impressive thing is the huge area of below normal snowfall all over the place. Even areas that can do ok in rough patterns are hurting pretty bad. No from lack of precip though. Pure lack of cold air to go along with precip. Its been a terrible stretch for the NE and upper midwest. Those areas can snow with above normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Nino climo is for two base states. This isn't that unusual. We had the early cold with snow chances and then the big warm up that are both staples of weak to moderate ninos. The flip back is usually between January 15 at the earliest and February 1 at the latest. It would have been nice to flip early but I guess that was too much to ask. What hurt is more was not cashing in on a couple good threats early in the month. The weeklies weren't that off on the global longwave pattern. But they were too quick to pull the PAC trough back and allowing a troug into the east. Instead the PAC trough keeps crashing the party and shifting the whole longwave pattern east putting the ridge over us. Ironically the gefs does that but without any downstream reaction. The EPS looks like it wants to undercut the ridge if the PAC would just back off. Good point on the "two base states.". Surely if we had cashed in with the southern snow earlier this month, even an upper level advisory criteria snow around here, nerves would be a lot less frayed now. Luck (bad) of the draw I suppose. So this blah period would still suck but not nearly as much and would not seem quite so desperate. I'd be less than honest if I didn't admit that these most recent indications are quite frustrating and even getting worrisome. But I have to believe this will change eventually to some good winter pattern, and not in mid-March when it doesn't much matter. From discussions I've seen in here, there seem to just be too many "positive" indicators to think we get a near shutout until it's all but too late in the season. Not saying anything is guaranteed, but this doesn't feel like some of the truly awful winters where everyone knew the teleconnections and everything else were hopeless from the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Can't figure how to post pic on phone, but gfs mjo forecast looking less bad. Seems line the stall zone is moving in to 7. Didn't PSU say that 7 is not bad in January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Phase 7 is very good in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Phase 7 is very good in January. It’ll be there pretty soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inthepines Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: The impressive thing is the huge area of below normal snowfall all over the place. Even areas that can do ok in rough patterns are hurting pretty bad. No from lack of precip though. Pure lack of cold air to go along with precip. Its been a terrible stretch for the NE and upper midwest. Those areas can snow with above normal temps. The Southwest has been getting hammered all the way down to the Mexican border. Highly anomalous pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 30, 2018 Author Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 hours ago, nj2va said: Seems EPS is saying the 9th-11th is a potential window. About 1.5” on the snowfall means for that period. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 11 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: It’ll be there pretty soon I hope so but I’ll believe it once it’s there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Reminds me of jan-feb 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Reminds me of jan-feb 2014 Forgot this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 Reminds me of jan-feb 2014Where is ji....the same model showed extreme warmth from alaska to miami at this time yesterday at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 16 minutes ago, Ji said: Where is ji....the same model showed extreme warmth from alaska to miami at this time yesterday at the same time Yeah but this one shows what we want so its obviously leading the way, duh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2018 Share Posted December 30, 2018 28 minutes ago, Ji said: Where is ji....the same model showed extreme warmth from alaska to miami at this time yesterday at the same time We can work with this. Trop pv displaced under a -nao and a clean epo ridge. I dont trust it but i also dont mind looking at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 27 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 20/22 Gefs members say it's going to snow for the 1/3 threat . Jumpers can step back from the ledge lol Can u post them please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, losetoa6 said: I'm shocked that many show something. Alot of them aren't much but anything at this point would be a win lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just now, Chris78 said: I'm shocked that many show something. Alot of them aren't much but anything at this point would be a win lol Unless your name is Ji. Go big or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: EPS isn't awful in the long range. But everytime it looks like the PAC is gonna back off it crashes another trough into the west to pop more ridging in the east. We basically keep getting an “Alastuian low” showing up. It’s not a true Aleutian low and it’s definitely not the death vortex or the GOA low but it’s in between enough that it’s not good enough. I’m inclined to think that type of setup won’t occur. It’ll either stay crappy and be an Alaskan vortex or the Aleutian low and subsequent PNA ridge will set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 35 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Unless your name is Ji. Go big or go home. Anything under 6 inches is a nuisance snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Just seeing how many things can go wrong really makes me amazed at how often it does snow south of the Mason Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 14 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Just seeing how many things can go wrong really makes me amazed at how often it does snow south of the Mason Dixon line. Washington Dulles and Philadelphia have just about the same annual snowfall. 22 and 22.4 respectively. Baltimore also over 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Over on the NY thread Don Sutherland notes that we have tied the record for number if consecutive days in phase 5: 12 days. Yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: We can work with this. Trop pv displaced under a -nao and a clean epo ridge. I dont trust it but i also dont mind looking at it That look up top and in the PAC is great. If the run went out another 72 hours I have no doubt a trough would develop. But now we need that look to hold and start moving closer in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 That look up top and in the PAC is great. If the run went out another 72 hours I have no doubt a trough would develop. But now we need that look to hold and start moving closer in time. Am I missing something. Isnt a trough in the east in that image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That look up top and in the PAC is great. If the run went out another 72 hours I have no doubt a trough would develop. But now we need that look to hold and start moving closer in time. Am I missing something. Isnt a trough in the east in that image? Kinda sorta but it's the weakest lamest trough to the point heights are still above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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