January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[anotherman]

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1081170116576972800

[showmethesnow]

37 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That's a true statement. Best look this year for sure.

Been holding off on posting about this but I have had a strong suspicion we are about to see the whole pattern blow up with extremes in the latter half of January into February. The whole setup is a ticking time-bomb just waiting for something to light the fuse. Now whether for the better or worse for our region it is hard to tell but I do slightly favor for the better from what I see at this point. Want to see some more runs before I possibly post something about it to see if my thoughts have any merit. What I will be looking for are the models to start picking up on a possible deep intrusion southward of one or more of the pieces of trop pv. And in fact I do believe they have been hinting at the possibility already.

[mappy]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

i dont recall the last two ranges, but 11-12 was horrible. there was shit for snow that year. 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, mappy said:

i dont recall the last two ranges, but 11-12 was horrible. there was shit for snow that year. 

01-02 was 11-12 except 10 years earlier.  Awful winter.  

 

89-90 was a Nina year with a very cold December that had a little snow (and we just missed out on a few big hits from Miller Bs that nailed Philly-north) and then winter was over by this time in January.  

[Jandurin]

I believe they were all horrible years

[Jandurin]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

01-02 was 11-12 except 10 years earlier.  Awful winter.  

 

89-90 was a Nina year with a very cold December that had a little snow (and we just missed out on a few big hits from Miller Bs that nailed Philly-north) and then winter was over by this time in January.  

"Winter 2011-12 Snow: 3.2""

Yikes

[WxUSAF]

Just now, Jandurin said:

"Winter 2011-12 Snow: 3.2""

Yikes

More than double my current 18-19 winter autumn total!

[aldie 22]

You guys realize HM said this is NO in that tweet 

[Ji]

We have seen better looks. Looks that have had both a good PAC setup and a good -NAO. The latest run we are still lacking somewhat on the Atlantic side.

I mean EPS runs for this year lol...like since jan 1

[mappy]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

01-02 was 11-12 except 10 years earlier.  Awful winter.  

89-90 was a Nina year with a very cold December that had a little snow (and we just missed out on a few big hits from Miller Bs that nailed Philly-north) and then winter was over by this time in January.  

well good to see HM thinking it won't be a complete shutout of a winter. 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, mappy said:

well good to see HM thinking it won't be a complete shutout of a winter. 

He's been consistent (in his cryptic science-y way) that we'll get a good winter period for awhile.  He got headfaked like all of us that that period would start around now, but has shown several lines of evidence that support @psuhoffman's ~Jan 20 flip timeframe.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

He's been consistent (in his cryptic science-y way) that we'll get a good winter period for awhile.  He got headfaked like all of us that that period would start around now, but has shown several lines of evidence that support @psuhoffman's ~Jan 20 flip timeframe.  

He doesn't have exclusive rights here to that projected flip date. 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

He doesn't have exclusive rights here to that projected flip date. 

The great @psuhoffman pattern flip of 2019.  Songs will be sung of its glory.  

[Ji]

He doesn't have exclusive rights here to that projected flip date. 

In 2011 we had the psu storm....in 2019...the psu flip date

Ps....time is really flying by in life

[H2O]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

He's been consistent (in his cryptic science-y way) that we'll get a good winter period for awhile.  He got headfaked like all of us that that period would start around now, but has shown several lines of evidence that support @psuhoffman's ~Jan 20 flip timeframe.  

Countersigned,

Pierre Andre

[EastCoast NPZ]

12 minutes ago, mappy said:

i dont recall the last two ranges, but 11-12 was horrible. there was shit for snow that year. 

They were also horrible, although 89 had epic cold December and snow on Tday eve.

[frd]

10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Been holding off on posting about this but I have had a strong suspicion we are about to see the whole pattern blow up with extremes in the latter half of January into February. The whole setup is a ticking time-bomb just waiting for something to light the fuse. Now whether for the better or worse for our region it is hard to tell but I do slightly favor for the better from what I see at this point. Want to see some more runs before I possibly post something about it to see if my thoughts have any merit. What I will be looking for are the models to start picking up on a possible deep intrusion southward of one or more of the pieces of pv. And in fact I do believe they have been hinting at it already.

On the mark showme. The potential is there down the line, in which the pattern certainly could produce something very noteworthy, if not extreme.  

In this case, as you mention, the pieces of the pv will need to be watched, as I feel the the progression of the ongoing strat event will be a player here I believe. 

And, when you look back at local weather extremes since 2010, it is in the realm of possibilities it could get down right nasty.   

More indice specific, we will have certain elements that are needed on the playing field to deliver what we like later in Jan and Feb, and maybe even beyond in March. 

We are finally seeing things change up top and it will be very interesting to see how things evolve in the next week or two.   

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Been holding off on posting about this but I have had a strong suspicion we are about to see the whole pattern blow up with extremes in the latter half of January into February. The whole setup is a ticking time-bomb just waiting for something to light the fuse. Now whether for the better or worse for our region it is hard to tell but I do slightly favor for the better from what I see at this point. Want to see some more runs before I possibly post something about it to see if my thoughts have any merit. What I will be looking for are the models to start picking up on a possible deep intrusion southward of one or more of the pieces of trop pv. And in fact I do believe they have been hinting at the possibility already.

I posted something similar a few days ago when we were discussing things but became skeptical over the past 3 days that we would get there. Yes, there is a powder keg in the upper atmosphere and I think the fuse has been lit. There is a discussion about the SOI and its effects and a chicken vs egg type of discussion where I noted once the SOI tanks neg for 3 or 4 consecutive days it will start happening....that was/is my belief. Well, we are there. Good times ahead. 

[dallen7908]

I wouldn't call 1989-1990 a horrible winter.  Although my memory may be faulty,

I recall snow on Thanksgiving eve and being very cold watching Macy's parade in NYC. 

I also recall snow in early December; much of which sublimated. 

I recall ice skating on local ponds 

I also remember an abrupt end to winter between XMAS and New Years.  

 

I suspect he is saying that the 2nd half of the winter is unlikely to be mild and snowless but based on 89/90 alone he could be saying that the transition will not be as abrupt as 89/90

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

I wouldn't call 1989-1990 a horrible winter.  Although my memory may be faulty,

I recall snow on Thanksgiving eve and being very cold watching Macy's parade in NYC. 

I also recall snow in early December; much of which sublimated. 

I recall ice skating on local ponds 

I also remember an abrupt end to winter between XMAS and New Years.  

 

I suspect he is saying that the 2nd half of the winter is unlikely to be mild and snowless but based on 89/90 alone he could be saying that the transition will not be as abrupt as 89/90

That was the "front loaded" winter many seem to pine after. It pretty much died after December. And how is it remembered? 

[frd]

 

Fascinating here. I believe the reversal a while back was not forecasted this low.

This is a new interim record for the date for 10 hPa60N 

We are also ahead of 1985 @Isotherm  Tom mentioned 1985 in a few posts a couple days back. Lined up with his mention of this timeframe. 

It also appears more warming is on the way. 

PV-Forecast‏ @Forecas55175638 6h6 hours ago

More

The strat. vortex is currently weaker than all other years in the ERA interim record!!! The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -9.2 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -7.0 m/s 1985

 

  

[frd]

From Matt 

 

 

[frd]

 

This is sweet 

Notice the increased spacing between daughter vortices growing, as Tony mentions they attempt to coalesce, but then you see what happens. 

Also focus in on the the other vortice on our side and how it moves and then possibly deepens over the Hudson Bay area in time. 

 

 

[pasnownut]

40 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

They were also horrible, although 89 had epic cold December and snow on Tday eve.

uh....yes 

they were....

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, Ji said:

Soi really tanking
 

This is the best news.   Of all the signals we are tracking this one is probably the most important to our prospects.  All the cold/snowy forecasts that were dominant across the weather community were based on a nino atmospheric response.  If there is finally a coupling between the SST and the atmosphere going on we might yet be good the second half.  

[LP08]

Scrolling through the members of the EPS, there is definitely some interest in the day 10 deal of a storm of some sort.  Cold seems to be around and if we can avoid the NS wrecking the mids, could be some potential.

[pasnownut]

35 minutes ago, frd said:

On the mark showme. The potential is there down the line, in which the pattern certainly could produce something very noteworthy, if not extreme.  

In this case, as you mention, the pieces of the pv will need to be watched, as I feel the the progression of the ongoing strat event will be a player here I believe. 

And, when you look back at local weather extremes since 2010, it is in the realm of possibilities it could get down right nasty.   

More indice specific, we will have certain elements that are needed on the playing field to deliver what we like later in Jan and Feb, and maybe even beyond in March. 

We are finally seeing things change up top and it will be very interesting to see how things evolve in the next week or two.   

 

And to further, I just ready that the PV disruption will continue and will remain peturbed/fragmented for the rest of winter. 

Takaway to me, opportunities for cold shots will remain for the backloaded blast of Winter '19

 

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, frd said:

On the mark showme. The potential is there down the line, in which the pattern certainly could produce something very noteworthy, if not extreme.  

In this case, as you mention, the pieces of the pv will need to be watched, as I feel the the progression of the ongoing strat event will be a player here I believe. 

And, when you look back at local weather extremes since 2010, it is in the realm of possibilities it could get down right nasty.   

More indice specific, we will have certain elements that are needed on the playing field to deliver what we like later in Jan and Feb, and maybe even beyond in March. 

We are finally seeing things change up top and it will be very interesting to see how things evolve in the next week or two.   

 

 

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I posted something similar a few days ago when we were discussing things but became skeptical over the past 3 days that we would get there. Yes, there is a powder keg in the upper atmosphere and I think the fuse has been lit. There is a discussion about the SOI and its effects and a chicken vs egg type of discussion where I noted once the SOI tanks neg for 3 or 4 consecutive days it will start happening....that was/is my belief. Well, we are there. Good times ahead. 

Wasn't really going to discuss it yet because I still want to see some things occur but I will give you a quick summary of what I am seeing/looking for. As I am sure you are aware and are probably sick of hearing about it by now, as well as many others, I have been focusing on what we are seeing occur with the jet. There is a reason for this. We are dealing with a downward propagating event with regards to the pv ssw/ split so the effects will be seen first at the 200-300mb level where the jet resides. What we see occur there will continue to propagate downwards, with a couple/few days lag time, into the 500 mb levels and then eventually to the surface. So in essence the jet is giving us a few days heads up on what to expect in the lower levels of the atmosphere despite what the models may suggest as they tend to lag somewhat on picking up on changes within jet.

Now at this point we are talking a beast of a mid-latitude jet that is running fast and straight around a good portion of the northern hemisphere. This jet contains a lot of built up energy which is the powder keg I am referring to. IF this jet can be significantly disturbed at any one point we are talking ramifications throughout the northern hemisphere. What we will see is deep amplification of the long wave pattern at that point that will cause ripple effects up stream as the jet buckles because of the backing of the flow. And we are talking a great deal of energy stored so we are talking major amplification throughout the jet as it bleeds off that stored energy. The one problem we have though is it will take a significant amount of force to displace this jet. That is where a deep southern drop of a pv somewhere comes into play. Deep enough drop as to where we see a major disturbance with the jet and the whole pattern goes BOOM. Could get very interesting weather wise if this is in fact what occurs.

[poolz1]

31 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I posted something similar a few days ago when we were discussing things but became skeptical over the past 3 days that we would get there. Yes, there is a powder keg in the upper atmosphere and I think the fuse has been lit. There is a discussion about the SOI and its effects and a chicken vs egg type of discussion where I noted once the SOI tanks neg for 3 or 4 consecutive days it will start happening....that was/is my belief. Well, we are there. Good times ahead. 

Nice to have you back after your 3 day bender

I agree....that -20 today is a game changer imo.  Would be nice to see some -30s show up in the next few days but beggars cant be choosers i guess.  Hopefully the euro is wrong with the TC that is forecasted to craw through N Australia and creep right through Darwin.  That would send a spike in the SOI by D7 or so.

[frd]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The one problem we have though is it will take a significant amount of force to displace this jet. That is where a deep southern drop of a pv somewhere comes into play. Deep enough drop as to where we see a major disturbance with the jet and the whole pattern goes BOOM. Could get very interesting weather wise if this is in fact what occurs.

Awesome post showme!

I have to ask.  Is there potential for the interaction of all three jets in such a violent displacement  ?  

And for the record, I am not suggesting the Perfect Storm by asking that, just wondering outloud about possible outcomes. 

I imagine severe cold is also on the table as well possibly, even though you are talking more about cyclogenesis it seems. ( maybe a cold powder type storm in the cards in the next 6 weeks )