Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 1969, 1978, 2005, 2015 did not favor the mid atl...although most seasons were good there. 2015 was pretty good, actually! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Euro close call d9-10 with Coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 The one after it will nail us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Soi really tanking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 44 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro close call d9-10 with Coastal All. In. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 6 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I would rather a back loaded over a front loaded. If we started good then had no snow from mid January on it would feel like a let down in the end and leave a bad taste in my mouth. But there is a natural time limit that runs out in march so if it gets good around Feb 1 and runs till march there isn't any expectations of more when it's over. Kinda like going 10-6 by winning your last 10 games feels better then going 10-6 by starting 10-0 and loosing the last 6. Maybe I'm just more patient but I would rather end good then start good and end lame. it depends on what kind of winter it is, you could have something like 1960-61 with MECS every month from December thru February but very little after Mid February. That was amongst our best winters. In urban areas around here snow doesn't stick well from March 1 onwards, so I'm pretty done with winter after February unless we get a historic March or April event like we did here last year. 1995-96 hands down was the best winter here, I dont care about thaws, just about having snow in every month. 2002-03 was second in that respect for me. Also, if you like long duration snowcover you want your snow season to start in late December at the latest our longest snowcover winters like 1947-48 and 2010-11 with continuous snowcover from December to March both had that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Somewhat better look for the possible system centered around the 13th on the EPS. Members that are showing the possibility are coming in stronger with less of a progressive track from the 12Z run. This can be attributed to the fact that the trough at 500's has improved. We are seeing a little deeper dig as well as better tilt as it is going negative quicker as it approaches the East Coast. Also seeing slightly better high pressure to the N and W of this system. Nothing earth shattering as far as the snowfall means by any means but we do see an increase where the cities are firmly within the inch line vs. the previous run which had it on the PA/MD line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 We getting there now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 0z EPS made a significant move to a more favorable h5 look much sooner. Several days ahead of the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 hours ago, RedSky said: Give GFS #2 a chance, they say it's new and improved and has vitamins I actually read an NCEP disco that mentioned the FV3 hasnt met expectations and has several key issues. They are planning a final release in late 2020 or early 2021. I dont recall if they are eliminating the primary release this month or not but they noted the gfs op was outperforming the fv3 in several case studies. Also unclear what role if any the govt shutdown will play as far as delays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 hours ago, Ji said: Euro close call d9-10 with Coastal Eps is offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 May be nothing more then noise but we did see improvement in the extended on the EPS. If any actually read my post (I know, it was probably pretty boring and depressing) early yesterday morning I was discussing the PV located west of Alaska because I believe that holds the key to what we see in regards to the EPO and its strength. Below we have the overnight 5 day mean which now shows it stronger, farther south and east vs. the 12Z. Thus we are seeing a stronger EPO feature then previous runs as this stronger farther south pv is better able to slow the winds on the North side of the jet compared to farther south which provides turning (poleward) of a portion of the jet. Really believe we need to see a strong NS jet develop through the EPO ridge to be able to bull into the strong Pacific flow through the CONUS, induced by the PAC jet, to deliver the cold. To weak of a NS jet and the cold gets locked in up to our north. I believe this has been a great deal of the reason we have seen such warm anomalies through the CONUS despite seeing an EPO ridge. The EPO was just too weak which is reflective of a weak NS flow running through it hence the cold is shunted eastward for the most part. Ergo, seeing a stronger EPO implies a stronger NS jet which hopefully can deliver the goods.. 00Z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps is offshore Offshore? As in OTS? For day 10 this is a decent look. About the only issue you can probably have with it is that only roughly a quarter of the members are showing a low off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 8 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I would rather a back loaded over a front loaded. If we started good then had no snow from mid January on it would feel like a let down in the end and leave a bad taste in my mouth. But there is a natural time limit that runs out in march so if it gets good around Feb 1 and runs till march there isn't any expectations of more when it's over. Kinda like going 10-6 by winning your last 10 games feels better then going 10-6 by starting 10-0 and loosing the last 6. Maybe I'm just more patient but I would rather end good then start good and end lame. I agree 100%. If we were to get on a heater starting in Feb and have three or four 3-5 inch events with a 6-10 inch storm over a six week period, no one except Ji would complain lol. I think that's doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 43 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I actually read an NCEP disco that mentioned the FV3 hasnt met expectations and has several key issues. They are planning a final release in late 2020 or early 2021. I dont recall if they are eliminating the primary release this month or not but they noted the gfs op was outperforming the fv3 in several case studies. Also unclear what role if any the govt shutdown will play as far as delays. Oh great. So I am sure we can look forward to more bitching about the GFS from Ji and the other usual suspects in the coming year or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: We getting there now.. What do you attribute that to, if I may ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: What do you attribute that to, if I may ask? Probably the trough in the east hence that blue area. I think . And the PAC not horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Probably the trough in the east hence that blue area. I think . And the PAC not horrible Yes, I can see that but my question wasn't clear. What caused the change in the Pac? Mojo-related; SOI; PDQ; strat stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 the EPS is the best look at 360 we have seen all year....maybe this thing is happening now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 So my goal was a jolting shift at 0z last night or I'm out....Ji am I in or out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 For all the panic we had a couple of days ago about the MJO we continue to see improvements. Seeing better amplitude and farther progression through the cold phases before it dives into the COD. Wouldn't surprise me to see it drive deep into phase one, at least, before it takes a dive into the COD. Question at that point becomes where does it emerge again. If we do in fact see it get deep into one that probably supports a reemergence, at worst phase 5, but more likely into 6 as opposed to 3 and 4 that it supports now. This difference is worlds apart on the implications for February. Also the further progression now into the cold phases leaves us in a better PAC state as the MJO influences subside while in the COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 25 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: So my goal was a jolting shift at 0z last night or I'm out....Ji am I in or out? Decisions, decisions. Pretty good look now showing up. But we have seen good looks evaporate far to often this year. If it were me I would just stock up on a couple of cases of beer and put the decision on hold for the next week or so. So even if it goes into the crapper at least you would be plastered and not really care as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 hours ago, Wonderdog said: Yes, I can see that but my question wasn't clear. What caused the change in the Pac? Mojo-related; SOI; PDQ; strat stuff? Yes a combination. The SOI has been dropping, and finally it looks as though we are seeing a Nino like response from the atmosphere. The EPS has been incrementally improving IMO, but this is a pretty big and undeniable step forward. I have been expecting the ens to 'catch on' to whats been happening with the SPV, and the manner and magnitude of the impact on the troposphere. And yes the MJO is also moving out of the warmer phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 35 minutes ago, Ji said: the EPS is the best look at 360 we have seen all year....maybe this thing is happening now We have seen better looks. Looks that have had both a good PAC setup and a good -NAO. The latest run we are still lacking somewhat on the Atlantic side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: We have seen better looks. Looks that have had both a good PAC setup and a good -NAO. The latest run we are still lacking somewhat on the Atlantic side. He said all year....4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 52 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Yes, I can see that but my question wasn't clear. What caused the change in the Pac? Mojo-related; SOI; PDQ; strat stuff? JB got his mojo back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: He said all year....4 days That's a true statement. Best look this year for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 In the most basic simplistic way for me to be encouraged is for op runs to start showing snow events regardless of size. It's not whether they are real or not it's the simple fact that the models will start seeing those chances in the long range. We can still fail no doubt but I just want to see the little sn showing up at 300 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 DCA has recorded on one occasion only a low of 29, a low of 28 and a low of 27 so far this winter. We are stuck in autumn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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