Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think you guys will be fine...be patient. Odds favor the largest events focusing to your north, though I don't think that would bring much solace to the corridor around here...since we've gotten the north AND south shaft both last winter and the winter before...lol Hope we all can cash in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I don't think that would bring much solace to the corridor around here...since we've gotten the north AND south shaft both last winter and the winter before...lol Hope we all can cash in! Man...all he just said is the equivalent of saying Massachusetts is more north than Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs says to keep an eye on d10ish. Looks better than the 12z run. 18z gefs also had a high number of hits for that range day 14-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: think you guys will be fine...be patient. Odds favor the largest events focusing to your north, though. Stop for stopping by Ray, much appreciated. I know you are thinking Miller B's, but I am hoping we get a Mid Atlantic special. Not sure if the blocking and timing team up perfectly to deliver a 2009 type event, I guess we will see. I am fearful we could miss to the South actually but lets see the evolution, I know guys in your forum are dreaming of a 2015. If you take any belief in the weeklies, snowfall distribution it seems is rather abundent and uniform in nature overall down to VA. Will be exciting to see how things play out. ( Hey, I hope its exciting ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I would rather a back loaded over a front loaded. If we started good then had no snow from mid January on it would feel like a let down in the end and leave a bad taste in my mouth. But there is a natural time limit that runs out in march so if it gets good around Feb 1 and runs till march there isn't any expectations of more when it's over. Kinda like going 10-6 by winning your last 10 games feels better then going 10-6 by starting 10-0 and loosing the last 6. Maybe I'm just more patient but I would rather end good then start good and end lame. For me personally, the time right around Christmas is very important. I HATE warm Christmases. Of course, being from eastern NC, I am not picky and will tale any cold/snow I can get whenever I can get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just to preempt any freak outs when the EPS look like poo tonight this is what day 15 should look like according to the weeklies. However, dramatic improvements in the epo should show up by tomorrow nights run. But anything better then this total crap panel is actually an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 @Bob Chill one thing that makes me discount the gefs idea from past runs that flipped the epo and nao but bottled all the cold in Canada...the euro doesn't do that as all. As soon as the epo flips it starts building cold in the Conus. That's a more typical response and the model with the better physics sees it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Not really a threat for us to track but interesting. Models aren't backing down on this being a nice little event for the NE. Some are improving on the threat. Only 4 days away. At this point it's the little things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: Not really a threat for us to track but interesting. Models aren't backing down on this being a nice little event for the NE. Some are improving on the threat. Only 4 days away. At this point it's the little things. Verbatim look slike PSU would see something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Thanks for the update. Just curious what, if any, are you thinking might be a good analog to what might be coming? My one worry is a lot of the weak to moderate nino analogs with bad starts and big second halfs it was go big or go home here. Many of them we got major snows, like 78 and 87 but the years that the big storms missed north like you say (1969 and 2005 for instance) ended up below average snowfall here and wouldn't really make many happy after a total crap first half to only have a mediocre second half. I don't think you guys will get totally whiffed...we will have more NAO than 2005, and we should have more PNA than 1969. The only way I see you guys getting screwed is if if we end up getting less NAO than 1969 (which is easy to do), but not a ton more PNA (tough to do). I think you will do okay....but 1969 is a close second to 1978 RE analogs for me. 1969 is far and away the best ENSO analog. The SSW helps your chances in the long run, though its screwing you now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: I don't think that would bring much solace to the corridor around here...since we've gotten the north AND south shaft both last winter and the winter before...lol Hope we all can cash in! I just mean the heaviest....doesn't mean they all miss you. Should be some Feb '78 type evolutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: Stop for stopping by Ray, much appreciated. I know you are thinking Miller B's, but I am hoping we get a Mid Atlantic special. Not sure if the blocking and timing team up perfectly to deliver a 2009 type event, I guess we will see. I am fearful we could miss to the South actually but lets see the evolution, I know guys in your forum are dreaming of a 2015. If you take any belief in the weeklies, snowfall distribution it seems is rather abundent and uniform in nature overall down to VA. Will be exciting to see how things play out. ( Hey, I hope its exciting ) I think the bigger risk is Miller Bs going too far north......but if we time an NAO nadir with large PNA flex, anything is possible. The very suppressed systems are exceptionally rare in weak modokis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 10 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Not really a threat for us to track but interesting. Models aren't backing down on this being a nice little event for the NE. Some are improving on the threat. Only 4 days away. At this point it's the little things. the GGEM has given Rockville 90 inches of snow this year already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the bigger risk is Miller Bs going too far north......but if we time an NAO nadir with large PNA flex, anything is possible. The very suppressed systems are exceptionally rare in weak modokis. El Ninos=esp Moderate Modoki El ninos typically favor the mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: El Ninos=esp Moderate Modoki El ninos typically favor the mid Atlantic Yes, moderate...this is weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1969, 1978, 2005, 2015 did not favor the mid atl...although most seasons were good there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I just mean the heaviest....doesn't mean they all miss you. Should be some Feb '78 type evolutions. Thanks for the reply. But I doubt talking about miller b's and feb 78 will make many in this sub comfy lol. Hybrid a/b can be good here but 90% of pure miller bs really screw the DC area bad. Feb 78 was a good example, Baltimore northeast did well but D.C. only got a couple inches. Ji might be ready to jump off a building as I think northern VA only had about an inch. D.C. is too far southwest to get much from miller b storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 What is the JBI (Joe Bastardi Index) at today? Has he thrown in the towel or is he touting vodka cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Thanks for the reply. But I doubt talking about miller b's and feb 78 will make many in this sub comfy lol. Hybrid a/b can be good here but 90% of pure miller bs really screw the DC area bad. Feb 78 was a good example, Baltimore northeast did well but D.C. only got a couple inches. Ji might be ready to jump off a building as I think northern VA only had about an inch. D.C. is too far southwest to get much from miller b storms. That's right..sorry about that. Need to brush up on mid atl climo....its Baltimore that did well there. I think DC still did fine that season, right? My concern for the mid at is how meager the MEI is...just like 1969. That is why I went light on the PNA in December and forecasted a gradient pattern over NE, which worked out, after the southern slider. We will see, though.....great blocking is a nice start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 1969, 1978, 2005, 2015 did not favor the mid atl...although most seasons were good there. 69 and 05 were pretty bad in DC. 78 was good baltimore north but kinda mediocre D.C. And VA half of this forum. 15 was a solid good year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: 69 and 05 were pretty bad in DC. 78 was good baltimore north but kinda mediocre D.C. And VA half of this forum. 15 was a solid good year. Yea, weak modoki are hit or miss there. But the fact that we are having a SSW is good for you guys, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: What is the JBI (Joe Bastardi Index) at today? Has he thrown in the towel or is he touting vodka cold? He melted on Weatherbell, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2019 Author Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That's right..sorry about that. Need to brush up on mid atl climo....its Baltimore that did well there. I think DC still did fine that season, right? My concern for the mid at is how meager the MEI is...just like 1969. That is why I went light on the PNA in December and forecasted a gradient pattern over NE, which worked out, after the southern slider. We will see, though.....great blocking is a nice start. Always appreciate your thoughts and insight especially as I browse the NE subforum. The weenies will wake up tomorrow and rush for the cliff after seeing your posts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Always appreciate your thoughts and insight especially as I browse the NE subforum. The weenies will wake up tomorrow and rush for the cliff after seeing your posts lol I honestly would not jump. All I am saying is that this season is not a slam dunk there like moderate modoki is....but when push came to shove, I had good snowfall numbers down there. I was torn between 1978 and 1969...but the fact that we have SSW should really tank the NAO, and possibly offset the paltry ENSO. Gun to head, you guys do fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 happy times are over. the GFS at 324 is an absolute disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, moderate...this is weak. And borderline weak at that! I've been calling it a lame duck niño because it's basically been ineffective (and bullied by the MJO and pac!) May as well not even be there if it ain't gonna do anything, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: And borderline weak at that! I've been calling it a lame duck niño because it's basically been ineffective (and bullied by the MJO and pac!) May as well not even be there if it ain't gonna do anything, lol I think that is why el nino winter's are usually pretty lack luster in December....it takes time to assert manifest itself into the hemispheric forcing...especially when its weak. I think that fact that the season to this point has not been a torch is good news. Sure, the snow has sucked, but that is bad luck. December 2018 was not like Deceber 2006, 1994, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 00z GFS says “good luck getting that cold out of Canada”..Ensembles will save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 21 minutes ago, WarmNose said: 00z GFS says “good luck getting that cold out of Canada”..Ensembles will save us Give GFS #2 a chance, they say it's new and improved and has vitamins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackb979 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 New DT video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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