GATECH Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It’s almost for sure wrong. When looking in 7 day chunks we go into consistent negative departures from days 21-28 on but it’s not enough to drop us to -10, especially given the other 21 days are all positive anomalies. It gives us the Day After Tomorrow in 7 weeks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, GATECH said: It gives us the Day After Tomorrow in 7 weeks.... 7 weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 It gives us the Day After Tomorrow in 3 weeks....I didn’t write it off immediately when I saw it, but it’s the Control run that gives us the mega-winter save, not the ensemble mean, the latter of which is showing the -10 departure. I’d love to see the controls temp departure. End of January into Feb should be frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Lol control run. Yeah, really performing well as of late. That dang model has given me about 60" digital snow over the past 4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2019 Author Share Posted January 4, 2019 Maybe this is wishcasting but the 12z EPS seems headed in that direction to fit in well with the weeklies timing per the tweet from WxUSAF above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: 7 weeks? 3 weeks....7 weeks....who the hell knows anymore....I think the Europeans are trolling the heck out of us with the EPS and weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Lol control run. Yeah, really performing well as of late. That dang model has given me about 60" digital snow over the past 4 weeks. Yeah not gonna get too excited but it’s the first really good data so it’s fun for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Yeah if it's just a control run then it's only one out of who knows how many ensemble members.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: Maybe this is wishcasting but the 12z EPS seems headed in that direction to fit in well with the weeklies timing per the tweet from WxUSAF above. I think it was at the very end but I’d like to get another 7 days under our belt with a similar evolution before getting confidence in a sustained pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, nj2va said: The weeklies 45 day snowfall map is NSFW. Do u have the 45 day snowfall mean from all 51 members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 I’d settle for half that and call it a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 hours ago, Fozz said: Why was the first half of 2006-07 so awful? I remember it being an endless horrendous torch until maybe Jan 15-16th, but I don't remember all the details. I also felt nearly hopeless for some time. IIRC that was another borderline weak Nino. Sometime in January that year I remember we were about 36 hours out from what was supposed to be a 3-6" snow from a wave coming up the coast. Everything had it. Except the NAM. I remember being in the computer lab at a governors academy seminar and everyone was flippantly dismissing the nam since it was all alone then the next run everything lost the wave. It was just gone. We got some snow showers with the front and out here I eeked out an inch from squalls but that was it. That was when I both realized that year sucked and that no matter what always believe the model with the least snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 12 minutes ago, nj2va said: Maybe this is wishcasting but the 12z EPS seems headed in that direction to fit in well with the weeklies timing per the tweet from WxUSAF above. I made note of that earlier, and even yesterday runs (wrt to previous edition of the weeklies). The progression and timing has looked pretty close... within a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2019 Author Share Posted January 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Do u have the 45 day snowfall mean from all 51 members? Ah, Weathermodels is so darn confusing I actually thought that was it. I see it posted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4, 2019 Author Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: I made note of that earlier, and even yesterday runs (wrt to previous edition of the weeklies). The progression and timing has looked pretty close... within a few days. Yep, totally agree. As WxUSAF noted above, I’d now like to see this timing stay firm so we can get this under 14 days, 10, 7, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 18z gefs says to keep an eye on d10ish. Looks better than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Sometime in January that year I remember we were about 36 hours out from what was supposed to be a 3-6" snow from a wave coming up the coast. Everything had it. Except the NAM. I remember being in the computer lab at a governors academy seminar and everyone was flippantly dismissing the nam since it was all alone then the next run everything lost the wave. It was just gone. We got some snow showers with the front and out here I eeked out an inch from squalls but that was it. That was when I both realized that year sucked and that no matter what always believe the model with the least snow. I remember in 04-07 or so the NAM was actually very good. I don’t know if every other model got better or it just got worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: With sub 540 thickness. What?! The old gfs sucks with boundary temps in a storm. I would sweat a 300 hour 3 degree surface issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs says to keep an eye on d10ish. Looks better than the 12z run. Phase 8 of the mjo argues that might trend better. Ok you can throw things at me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs says to keep an eye on d10ish. Looks better than the 12z run. I thought the end of the Run looked alot better. Lost the AN heights in the east. Temps look normal which is workable for Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Eric Horst from Millersville favors Feb 1 to March 15. http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/SWD-latest.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 18z gefs says to keep an eye on d10ish. Looks better than the 12z run. If we have a day 10 event and the weeklies start showing up on the eps...oh man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs says to keep an eye on d10ish. Looks better than the 12z run. If we have a day 10 event and the weeklies start showing up on the eps...oh man Already started really. 12z run today was a nice step forward- up top and in the EPAC. I bet the next few runs will have people getting giddy in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Lol, this thread is bipolar. 3 hours ago we were cancelling winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Phase 8 of the mjo argues that might trend better. Ok you can throw things at me now. It's been so long that we forget that storms can actually trend better sometimes... Nice to see at least a chance on the gefs/eps. I'll take anything. Even a trashcan lid topper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Sometime in January that year I remember we were about 36 hours out from what was supposed to be a 3-6" snow from a wave coming up the coast. Everything had it. Except the NAM. I remember being in the computer lab at a governors academy seminar and everyone was flippantly dismissing the nam since it was all alone then the next run everything lost the wave. It was just gone. We got some snow showers with the front and out here I eeked out an inch from squalls but that was it. That was when I both realized that year sucked and that no matter what always believe the model with the least snow. Is the NAM still in operation? Its been so long since we've had a threat in the medium range, I thought theyd pull it to save $$ as its no longer needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, jaydreb said: Lol, this thread is bipolar. When is it not in winter? Personally, I think I have maintained my manic state quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Lol, this thread is bipolar. 3 hours ago we were cancelling winter. THIS!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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