January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

Just a reminder

[Bob Chill]

D10 alive and well on the 18z gfs. These anafront deals rarely disappoint if you don't like snow

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It wouldn't bother me one bit if the euro weeklies are too fast but that's where we end up...eventually. 

For the record, I haven't totally given up on winter yet. I never really give up. It's just hard to deny that this winter is following in the footsteps of other disaster winters. I am however losing hope that we miraculously flip to a cold/snow pattern that hangs on for weeks on end. I want to be wrong with my guess. Heck, I'm praying I'm wrong but it just has the feel of a stinker. All other stinker years are ruined by the pac jet and lack of cold in north america. If it flips and stays for a while I'll gladly sit at my desk for an entire afternoon eating pixels of my deb posts. 

Why was the first half of 2006-07 so awful? I remember it being an endless horrendous torch until maybe Jan 15-16th, but I don't remember all the details. I also felt nearly hopeless for some time. IIRC that was another borderline weak Nino.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It wouldn't bother me one bit if the euro weeklies are too fast but that's where we end up...eventually. 

For the record, I haven't totally given up on winter yet. I never really give up. It's just hard to deny that this winter is following in the footsteps of other disaster winters. I am however losing hope that we miraculously flip to a cold/snow pattern that hangs on for weeks on end. I want to be wrong with my guess. Heck, I'm praying I'm wrong but it just has the feel of a stinker. All other stinker years are ruined by the pac jet and lack of cold in north america. If it flips and stays for a while I'll gladly sit at my desk for an entire afternoon eating pixels of my deb posts. 

Everyone is a bit frustrated. You never give up. You cant. It's a disease. You always track till the end, brother.

[Scraff]

9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Polar Vortex is about to split into 3 pieces

https://www.axios.com/polar-vortex-is-about-to-split-up-5c2e7460-67fb-49da-b73a-079ffbe205b9.html

Just what we need. 3 daughter vortices. I can’t even handle my two! 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Fozz said:

Why was the first half of 2006-07 so awful? I remember it being an endless horrendous torch until maybe Jan 15-16th, but I don't remember all the details. I also felt nearly hopeless for some time. IIRC that was another borderline weak Nino.

I can't pull up composite plots because of the gov shutdown but my memory is telling me that it was because the EPO was mostly positive and north america kept getting pumped full of pac air. 

[Fozz]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I can't pull up composite plots because of the gov shutdown but my memory is telling me that it was because the EPO was mostly positive and north america kept getting pumped full of pac air. 

Sounds a lot like today.

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

29 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yeah Coastal just posted about them...great look in Week 3 (see above).  Wonder if its a bit rushed but I’ll gladly take it.

Disaster because everytime they come out it looks great week 3. Its a running joke now with Bob

Ok they have teased us a couple times but this latest iteration/progression hasn't slowed down "yet". It wasn't good week 3 last run. It got good week 4. Its typically been good week 4 then goes to crap as it gets into week 3. The real test comes the next few days. If the look evaporates as it should enter week 2 then whatever is altering the pattern away from what the SSTs argue for is likely a season problem that isn't going away. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Fozz said:

Sounds a lot like today.

It was a common problem during that decade. IIRC- 05-06, 07-08, and 08-09 all had the same issue at times. Those 3 winters had a lot of mild periods. The big Feb storm in 06 came mostly when it was above freezing at the surface and the day after the storm it was in the mid 40s (going off memory but pretty sure that's right). It was a great storm though. Heavy snow and reverse bust. 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Well...IF week 3 is correct on the weeklies it produces that pattern either in the COD or in a week warm phase.  Cant remember who mentioned the idea earlier (tongue in cheek) that our best pattern would be when the MJO heads back into the warm phases. 

Bob did but that's a thing. If the mjo goes through a cold phase and the soi tanks then had a weak run through warm phases in a nino that's actually a cold signal. 

[CAPE]

New Weeklies- Gets really good starting with this panel.

[CAPE]

^Every panel beyond that looks epic.

[Bob Chill]

Gotta love the closed ULLs dropping rain during prime time

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

D10 alive and well on the 18z gfs. These anafront deals rarely disappoint if you don't like snow

We're tracking day 10 anafronts now. Ugh

[Ji]

^Every panel beyond that looks epic.

So we are going to 09-10 it. Epic jan 28-mid feb

[Fozz]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It was a common problem during that decade. IIRC- 05-06, 07-08, and 08-09 all had the same issue at times. Those 3 winters had a lot of mild periods. The big Feb storm in 06 came mostly when it was above freezing at the surface and the day after the storm it was in the mid 40s (going off memory but pretty sure that's right). It was a great storm though. Heavy snow and reverse bust. 

I specifically remember the Pacific jet wrecking Jan 2006, but I'm less clear on Jan 2007. 05-06 mostly sucked... the Feb storm was great and it saved that winter from being a disaster, but I enjoyed 06-07 much better even though it had less snow, since we actually had a meaningful prolonged period of deep winter, including the V-day sleet storm.

06-07 could've been better if we had better luck, but the second half was still a lot of fun.

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

Here is today eps at 360w..can we go to this look in 3-5 days?

Yes because the day 15 on the weeklies looks just as bad if not worse and flips. That means it is possible. Likely?  That's another argument. 

[Ji]

Gotta love the closed ULLs dropping rain during prime time

Lol thought that was tomorrows map

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

^Every panel beyond that looks epic.

D14-21 doesn't look so good but d18-25 implies that week 3 in general has fast and significant changes for the better. And I totally agree that the rest of the run is epic. I'll feel much better when we're at week -1 with a -NAO already in place. Until then Deb's gonna Deb. 

[Bob Chill]

The good thing about our sub is we are all on the same page with accepting we're screwed until we're not screwed in real time. Heartbreaks and near misses bring out the worst. Wall to wall disgusting runs and expectations of total failure keeps things peaceful. 

[SnowGoose69]

35 minutes ago, Ji said:

50 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yeah Coastal just posted about them...great look in Week 3 (see above).  Wonder if its a bit rushed but I’ll gladly take it.

Disaster because everytime they come out it looks great week 3. Its a running joke now with Bob

Not really.  Two weeks ago week 5 was pretty much where it looked real good.  Week 4 probably was better than week 2 shows now but not necessarily by a ton 

[nj2va]

36 minutes ago, Ji said:

Here is today eps at 360w..can we go to this look in 3-5 days? 

I actually think the flip will come pretty fast whenever we get it, so yes I think it’s possible. Do I think this exact timing will happen if the date of the flip? Not sure. 

[BristowWx]

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gotta love the closed ULLs dropping rain during prime time

Lol thought that was tomorrows map

With sub 540 thickness.  What?!

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I actually think the flip will come pretty fast whenever we get it, so yes I think it’s possible. Do I think this exact timing will happen if the date of the flip? Not sure. 

It happened pretty suddenly in Jan 2007. Right on the 16th.

 

BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, MD
Daily Data For a Month
January 2007

Day   MaxT   MinT   AvgT   Dprt    HDD    CDD   Pcpn   Snow   Dpth
 1      53     44   48.5   15.1     16      0   1.07    0.0      0
 2      50     29   39.5    6.2     25      0   0.00    0.0      0
 3      55     26   40.5    7.3     24      0   0.00    0.0      0
 4      61     29   45.0   11.9     20      0   0.00    0.0      0
 5      62     43   52.5   19.5     12      0   0.31    0.0      0
 6      71     56   63.5   30.5      1      0   0.03    0.0      0
 7      56     44   50.0   17.1     15      0   0.31    0.0      0
 8      53     34   43.5   10.7     21      0   0.50    0.0      0
 9      47     30   38.5    5.7     26      0      T      T      0
10      37     24   30.5   -2.2     34      0      T      T      0
11      42     20   31.0   -1.7     34      0   0.00    0.0      0
12      50     35   42.5    9.8     22      0   0.03    0.0      0
13      65     50   57.5   24.8      7      0      T    0.0      0
14      67     50   58.5   25.9      6      0   0.05    0.0      0
15      68     49   58.5   25.9      6      0      T    0.0      0
16      64     30   47.0   14.4     18      0   0.00    0.0      0
17      34     22   28.0   -4.6     37      0   0.00    0.0      0
18      35     18   26.5   -6.1     38      0      T    0.0      0
19      46     30   38.0    5.3     27      0   0.00    0.0      0
20      36     24   30.0   -2.7     35      0      T      T      0
21      29     19   24.0   -8.7     41      0   0.15    0.9      1
22      33     27   30.0   -2.8     35      0   0.01      T      1
23      41     28   34.5    1.7     30      0      T      T      0
24      42     29   35.5    2.6     29      0   0.00    0.0      0
25      37     20   28.5   -4.4     36      0      T      T      0
26      31     14   22.5  -10.5     42      0   0.00    0.0      0
27      54     20   37.0    4.0     28      0   0.00    0.0      0
28      45     28   36.5    3.4     28      0   0.02      T      0
29      31     20   25.5   -7.7     39      0   0.00    0.0      0
30      41     19   30.0   -3.3     35      0      T      T      0
31      33     20   26.5   -6.9     38      0   0.00    0.0      0

http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

[aldie 22]

I loved February 07....VD 2 for all!!

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I actually think the flip will come pretty fast whenever we get it, so yes I think it’s possible. Do I think this exact timing will happen if the date of the flip? Not sure. 

I think we are still in the game for a workable pattern by the 20th. Some sort of a fluke deal is certainly not impossible before that.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

With sub 540 thickness.  What?!

Pac puke mid 40s. We have plenty of time for mid 60s severe tho

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

I loved February 07....VD 2 for all!!

Without question my favorite sleet storm of all time. The glacial period following was epic. My buddy's wife was an xray tech and her practice was jammed from sledding accidents and slip and falls. Lol

[Fozz]

The glaze in Feb 07 was so slippery, I remember being able to slide on it as if I was skating. It was actually pretty dangerous, but then again I was 16.

[poolz1]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I actually think the flip will come pretty fast whenever we get it, so yes I think it’s possible. Do I think this exact timing will happen if the date of the flip? Not sure. 

Exactly what the weeklies show....a snap to winter and every panel after this stays cold.