January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

54 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

For the heart of winter the 15 day snowfall means on the EPS are putrid. Inch line sits around the cities.

The pattern is only starting to get ok day 15. I wouldn't expect any uptick for another week. We will likely suffer through some more rainers as the cold slowly builds in once the pattern flips. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

My WAG is it has the same general progression, but shifted back a few days.

My optimism was based largely on the assumption the soi and mjo negative influences were temporary. But now a lot of guidance recycled the mjo into phase 4 and the soi goes back up. Throwing out that it would be an unheard of occurrence for a +oni winter, that has to be troubling.   If the better look continued to get kicked down the road at some point it becomes obvious that the cause of the mjo and soi issues are likely more long term than we like and things are in big trouble. 

[Bob Chill]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill for example 

 

pump the Epo/pna ridge a bit more and turn our flow slightly more northerly and we are fine. It's still "cold enough" to our north. 

We're in some trouble here man. All ens are really warm in the mids and surface d11+. EPS is pushing 50 d15 @ DCA. A mean temp that warm 15 days out is pretty bad. IMO the mean height patterns are not promising and I expect nothing but rain and very brief cool shots over the next 15 days. My gut is saying a flip to cold and snowy is becoming increasingly unlikely at any point this winter. We might get some snow but it just has the feel that an extended period of winter wx isn't in the cards this year. 

I hope this post gets bump trolled like F after our first 2 HECS in Feb though...

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We're in some trouble here man. All ens are really warm in the mids and surface d11+. EPS is pushing 50 d15 @ DCA. A mean temp that warm 15 days out is pretty bad. IMO the mean height patterns are not promising and I expect nothing but rain and very brief cool shots over the next 15 days. My gut is saying a flip to cold and snowy is becoming increasingly unlikely at any point this winter. We might get some snow but it just has the feel that an extended period of winter wx isn't in the cards this year. 

I hope this post gets bump trolled like F after our first 2 HECS in Feb though...

You are smart Bob.  You would not post that on a whim.  Salvage mode now.  Something trackable.  All we can hope 

[Maestrobjwa]

Wow...just imagine if the close miss to the south last month turns out to be our one and only shot this winter, lol If that would be the case, this should go down as the WORST winter of the new millennium so far! 

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

You are smart Bob.  You would not post that on a whim.  Salvage mode now.  Something trackable.  All we can hope 

When the Pac went to hell on the ens back in Dec I posted several times that I would get increasingly nervous the longer it held on. Here we are 3 weeks later staring at at least 2 more weeks of it...  It's not a midatlantic problem unfortunately. It's a north american problem... It's pretty obvious now that this winter has shown us the base state. I'm with you though. Let's find something flawed, mangled, and banged up to track. Something to break up the monotony of this Pac hell quagmire we're stuck in. 

[Fozz]

I wasn't even alive at the time, but this winter is starting to remind me of 1989-90. I'm sure many people here are familiar with it. January and February were atrocious based on all the data I've seen. Endless lukewarm torch after an amazing start, just like these past few and next few weeks. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

5 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I wasn't even alive at the time, but this winter is starting to remind me of 1989-90. I'm sure many people here are familiar with it. January and February were atrocious based on all the data I've seen. Endless lukewarm torch after an amazing start, just like these past few and next few weeks. 

White Thanksgiving followed by hella cold December, and winter was over by new years.  Uh-oh.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We're in some trouble here man. All ens are really warm in the mids and surface d11+. EPS is pushing 50 d15 @ DCA. A mean temp that warm 15 days out is pretty bad. IMO the mean height patterns are not promising and I expect nothing but rain and very brief cool shots over the next 15 days. My gut is saying a flip to cold and snowy is becoming increasingly unlikely at any point this winter. We might get some snow but it just has the feel that an extended period of winter wx isn't in the cards this year. 

I hope this post gets bump trolled like F after our first 2 HECS in Feb though...

Oh for the next 2-3 weeks we're toast. Punt them. It's over. All I was saying was where that EPS run ends day 15 could get cold enough relatively quick if that epo ridge builds a bit more. Yea it looks like a furnace on the anomaly but it's still chilly in Canada. I'm not even saying I buy it. Just that day 15 wasn't far off.

I actually like where the EPS was going vs Gefs. Yea the gefs has the better epo and nao faster but it also rotates a tightly would tpv into Canada that locks all the cold up there and creates a fast west to east zonal flow under it. 

Eps doesn't do that. If it continues to build the ridge west and the ridge migrated up into Canada we would have high pressure on top of us. I'll take that over a PV in Canada driving NS lows across the lakes. 

PVs are great for crazy cold but they muck up a snow threat more often than they help. 

[Bob Chill]

This may be the worst 15 day meteogram I've seen for January. lol. The one tiny bit of hope that stands out is the d9-10 deal has a glimmer of life in it. Something to watch... only thing to watch...

[Bob Chill]

GEFS has about the same % of members considering the d10 option. It's a really crappy setup with bad conditions on either side but it's the next serviceable airmass we have so may as well go all in.

[CAPE]

29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

When the Pac went to hell on the ens back in Dec I posted several times that I would get increasingly nervous the longer it held on. Here we are 3 weeks later staring at at least 2 more weeks of it...  It's not a midatlantic problem unfortunately. It's a north american problem... It's pretty obvious now that this winter has shown us the base state. I'm with you though. Let's find something flawed, mangled, and banged up to track. Something to break up the monotony of this Pac hell quagmire we're stuck in. 

I am adjusting expectations on the fly. Any ideas of this becoming an epic Nino winter with a sustained -AO/NAO and multiple KU threats is all but gone. I accepted that at least half of Jan was toast a week ago. Maybe we get shut out for the whole month, after a snow-less Dec. That would be remarkable, but not impossible. If so, we still have Feb, and it usually finds ways to snow in Feb. My yard has seen 1/2" of slop so far, but I wont complain. I was over climo snowfall last winter, and chased a blizzard at the beach. Many others got next to nothing. This winter now has all the earmarks of a major struggle just to get a single pure snow event. I am pretty sure it will happen at least once or twice some place in our region outside of the mountains though. It would be awesome if we could thread the needle and get a region wide warning level event once over the next 10 weeks.

[nj2va]

Reading on another forum that the weeklies look great after week 2?  I don’t have access to them so can’t confirm.

eta:  confirmed by the NE forum.  Week 3 has a +PNA/-EPO and -NAO.  

[CAPE]

Just now, nj2va said:

Reading on another forum that the weeklies look great after week 2?  I don’t have access to them so can’t confirm.

Not updated on WB yet. Good to hear if true. Based on the EPS runs lately(0z specifically) I was expecting it to follow the same general progression as the last edition, other than kicking the can a bit again.

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not updated on WB yet. Good to hear if true. Based on the EPS runs lately(0z specifically) I was expecting it to follow the same general progression as the last edition, other than kicking the can a bit again.

Yeah Coastal just posted about them...great look in Week 3 (see above).  Wonder if its a bit rushed but I’ll gladly take it.

[SnowGolfBro]

This is less of a scientific argument and more of  statistical analysis of our climo:

09-10 was an epic winter with 50 plus plus inches forum wide

we also had 3 straight winters well above average from 13-14 through 15-16

historically we live in an area that doesn’t average a ton of snow. 

Having said all this I’m hoping for an epic February anyway

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Reading on another forum that the weeklies look great after week 2?  I don’t have access to them so can’t confirm.

eta:  confirmed by the NE forum.  Week 3 has a +PNA/-EPO and -NAO.  

Thanks.  I am thinking meh but I want to think yay.  We wait

[Fozz]

Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

This is less of a scientific argument and more of  statistical analysis of our climo:

09-10 was an epic winter with 50 plus plus inches forum wide

we also had 3 straight winters well above average from 13-14 through 15-16

historically we live in an area that doesn’t average a ton of snow. 

Having said all this I’m hoping for an epic February anyway

We also had crappy winters from 07-09 and again from 11-13 and 16-17+ (depending on where you live). So in all likelihood we either get skunked this year, or get a nice turnaround and beat climo.

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Reading on another forum that the weeklies look great after week 2?  I don’t have access to them so can’t confirm.

eta:  confirmed by the NE forum.  Week 3 has a +PNA/-EPO and -NAO.  

Now the eps weeklies will cave to a crud solution as lead time shrinks....watch.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, frd said:

JMA 

 

I really hope this scenario does not play out, if so, winter never arrives. 

After this last period with the modeling when November and December come around later in the year, I simply will not believe anything. 

So much concensus went poof .....

 

 

I am done worrying about the damn MJO, lol.

If this "Nino" is legit, the MJO should not be the predominate pattern driver. It is late to get going though, so maybe we see more Nino like behavior from the atmosphere as we progress into and through Feb. 

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Now the eps weeklies will cave to a crud solution as lead time shrinks....watch.

I’m encouraged by the fact that it didn’t delay the flip and you can see positive changes at the end of the recent EPS runs which would coincide with the flip.  Or this will be the hamster wheel winter where week 3 is always 3 weeks away.

[nj2va]

Yes, please.  

[Ji]

Yeah Coastal just posted about them...great look in Week 3 (see above).  Wonder if its a bit rushed but I’ll gladly take it.

Disaster because everytime they come out it looks great week 3. Its a running joke now with Bob

[MJO812]

Polar Vortex is about to split into 3 pieces

https://www.axios.com/polar-vortex-is-about-to-split-up-5c2e7460-67fb-49da-b73a-079ffbe205b9.html

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

17 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yeah Coastal just posted about them...great look in Week 3 (see above).  Wonder if its a bit rushed but I’ll gladly take it.

Disaster because everytime they come out it looks great week 3. Its a running joke now with Bob

But he is a Deb, so..

[Ji]

Yes, please.  

Here is today eps at 360w..can we go to this look in 3-5 days?

[aldie 22]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

23 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yeah Coastal just posted about them...great look in Week 3 (see above).  Wonder if its a bit rushed but I’ll gladly take it.

Disaster because everytime they come out it looks great week 3. Its a running joke now with Bob

Bob is on the street talking to Chuck now

[Bob Chill]

It wouldn't bother me one bit if the euro weeklies are too fast but that's where we end up...eventually. 

For the record, I haven't totally given up on winter yet. I never really give up. It's just hard to deny that this winter is following in the footsteps of other disaster winters. I am however losing hope that we miraculously flip to a cold/snow pattern that hangs on for weeks on end. I want to be wrong with my guess. Heck, I'm praying I'm wrong but it just has the feel of a stinker. All other stinker years are ruined by the pac jet and lack of cold in north america. If it flips and stays for a while I'll gladly sit at my desk for an entire afternoon eating pixels of my deb posts. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Here is today eps at 360w..can we go to this look in 3-5 days?

It took about 6-7 days last run to get from borderline decent to sweet look. 

[poolz1]

Well...IF week 3 is correct on the weeklies it produces that pattern either in the COD or in a week warm phase.  Cant remember who mentioned the idea earlier (tongue in cheek) that our best pattern would be when the MJO heads back into the warm phases.