Ji Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: At least it's not out of the realm of possibility for the euro d9-10 shortwave to work out in some fashion. The northern low near the lakes crushes the mids but there's cold around and a half decent shortwave to work with. You have to get really creative with the maps to see potential but it's a sliver of hope in a raging hopeless pattern. every day 9-10 potential has trended the wrong way by day 8 since Dec 15. See you in the panic room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: every day 9-10 potential has trended the wrong way by day 8 since Dec 15. See you in the panic room The good thing is this one already sucks at d9-10 so maybe it will trend better... nah, panic room it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Unfortunately this is worse... 2015 was VERY similar WRT SST but by now the atmosphere was better coupled with a weak nino. This year was late developing AND has yet to have any atmospheric response. That should change but if it doesn't we could be in trouble. Furthermore, we remember January 2015 as "awful" but it wasn't actually that bad. We had a pretty good clipper the first week. Then the second was really warm and awful...but the last 10 days were cold and we had some snow...we just complained constantly because we were getting 1-2" snows while New England was getting 1-2 feet. Honestly there aren't many good analogs to a year with THIS awful a pattern early. There are similar years and some did flip but without good SST matches...but perhaps finding years with a similar MJO progression and neutral SST would be a better analog? But I haven't done that research. But with this MJO being a record event it would make sense that the pattern was even worse. But even the "bad" start nino years there was SOME cold and snow. A clipper here, a front end 1" there...a couple days with cold. It's hard to find any where it was just a total barren wasteland for a month like this... 2006-07, another weak Nino, was pretty wretched after a chilly start during the first week of December. Widespread warmth that had people in early January in Boston noting that trees were blossoming and folks in Ohio complaining about insects. The guy from NM was hitting the '06-'07 analog pretty hard throughout the fall in Chuck's ENSO thread on the main forum. That terrible month + from early-Dec through mid-Jan was warmer than this stretch has been, but the pattern flipped around 1/17 when an EPO ridge built north through Alaska. That ridge started showing up about 12-14 days prior to onset on the ensembles. I know that winter isn't remembered fondly by the metro area crew, but my yard hit snow climo with the latest of late saves: the VD storm that dropped 3" of snow here followed by 3" of sleet, a 6" dump on 2/25, another WSW event in early March (a rain to snow event) and another 6" on 3/17 after 3 days of temps in the mid- to upper 70's. The whole month of February was great for consistent cold and storm chances. No reason to think we couldn't do it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Waiting on someone to tell is how awful the EPS looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Waiting on someone to tell is how awful the EPS looks It must be so bad that it crashed weathermodels.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Waiting on someone to tell is how awful the EPS looks I have seen better. Let's see if we can get a late save with the final 2 days coming up shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Waiting on someone to tell is how awful the EPS looks Through hr312 it's still hideous but not as hideous as 0z. Slightly better in the EPO/NAO domains but overall we're still fooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Waiting on someone to tell is how awful the EPS looks Same theme. Awful pac. Close to something interesting day 9-10 but otherwise meh-tastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, WVclimo said: I know the guy from NM was hitting the '06-'07 analog pretty hard throughout the fall in Chuck's ENSO thread on the main forum. That terrible month + from early-Dec through mid-Jan was warmer than this stretch has been, but the pattern flipped around 1/17 when an EPO ridge built north through Alaska. That ridge started showing up about 12-14 days prior to onset on the ensembles All throughout the fall, seeing that always concerned me...because I was like "Nooo...." lol (although, as you said, February wasn't completely crappy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 PNA is better on this run in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 EPS is trying. Getting better up top. At least we have normal h5 heights over us at day 15 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Same theme. Awful pac. Close to something interesting day 9-10 but otherwise meh-tastic I've punted the next 2-3 weeks. Im looking for signs the long range pattern change for post Jan 20 into Feb from the weeklies is still progressing. Stop expecting something to look good in the next 2 weeks given the absolutely awful spot were in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: EPS is trying. Getting better up top. At least we have normal h5 heights over us at day 15 lol. Is the epo ridge going day 15? If it isn't the wheels have fell off the weeklies AGAIN because by now the ridge should be getting established there if it hasn't pushed back the progression again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Is the epo ridge going day 15? If it isn't the wheels have fell off the weeklies AGAIN because by now the ridge should be getting established there if it hasn't pushed back the progression again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Its pretty close to the weeklies look for the same date. Better up top, not quite as good in the EPO region. Heading that way though. We rollin! eta- the ridge N of Hawaii really weakens/flattens at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Its pretty close to the weeklies look for the same date. Better up top, not quite as good in the EPO region. Heading that way though. We rollin! What is your guess regarding what the weeklies will show? Eratic changes or hold the course ?? My neighbor is having pigs in a blanket and brews to celebrate Thursday night's weeklies release two minutes online checking models three hours drinking, sounds just what the doctor ordered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 For the heart of winter the 15 day snowfall means on the EPS are putrid. Inch line sits around the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, frd said: What is your guess regarding what the weeklies will show? Eratic changes or hold the course ?? My neighbor is having pigs in a blanket and brews to celebrate Thursday night's weeklies release two minutes online checking models three hours drinking, sounds just what the doctor ordered. My WAG is it has the same general progression, but shifted back a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, showmethesnow said: For the heart of winter the 15 day snowfall means on the EPS are putrid. Inch line sits around the cities. Pretty sad to see the 540 line barely into the N US in what will be mid Jan, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: meh that will correct itself to warmer as we get closer. Did anything come of this? Weathermodels died here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: meh Incremental improvement!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: meh Just awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Incremental improvement!! I still feel the outcomes are very much up in the air. On a side note, I believe updated seasonal guideance is released soon along with tonight's weeklies. I will take all the updated data I can get. Lastly, I respect some very smart guys in the long range end of things, I hold out they are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: meh It looks awful but...(I know don't throw things at me) that would flip fast if we can get the flow out of the NW instead of off the PAC. That air up over Canada is still cold even at +3-5 departures there. You get a direct discharge down into our area and it would be chilly. Ideally the cold would form over us on that map. In reality it came from the north but it was warm for up there...not so much here. Whats frustrating about the gefs is it develops the look we wish the EPS would up top but it sets up the PV too far north and tightly wound and bottles the cold up in Canada then has a weak west to east flow under it across the US. That would be fine if we had cold in place. Hello overrunning city. But with the puke antecedent airmass that just means more warm. I would almost rather no PV and hope we can get cold enough with home grown cold and a flow right out of Canada during peak climo then a badly placed PV. Of course my location and elevation bias me as I can do really well with marginal boundary layers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I wouldnt be shocked to see the euro and EPS trend more favorable since they bring the mjo into 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, frd said: I still feel the outcomes are very much up in the air. On a side note, I believe updated seasonal guideance is released soon along with tonight's weeklies. I will take all the updated data I can get. Lastly, I respect some very smart guys in the long range end of things, I hold out they are correct. Guidance really doesn't have much cold in our part of the world post SPV split. There is one small consolidated TPV that rotates down south of GL. Our little daughter vortex isn't sharing her cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Guidance really doesn't have much cold in our part of the world post SPV split. There is one small consolidated TPV that rotates down south of GL. Our little daughter vortex isn't sharing her cold. Your correct, we will see what happens. If we wind up warm in Feb and March and never go normal there will be some implications I imagine. One that comes to mind might be a very warm Western Atlantic again. However, I rather be discussing possible SECS events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 @Bob Chill for example pump the Epo/pna ridge a bit more and turn our flow slightly more northerly and we are fine. It's still "cold enough" to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 JMA I really hope this scenario does not play out, if so, winter never arrives. After this last period with the modeling when November and December come around later in the year, I simply will not believe anything. So much concensus went poof ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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