January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[pasnownut]

15 minutes ago, nj2va said:

This place would go full tilt.  

Yeah.  I think it a bit premature as well as noone saw a record stall in 5.  

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Latest MJO from Euro.  Further amplification of the wave but speeds us through 7/8 into COD to emerge in Phase 4.  If we do emerge back in Phase 4, we can pretty much close the blinds.  

Latest from GEFS has us loop in Phase 7.  Both suggest we’re in Phase 7 by the weekend.  

LOL if that does verify...and we get 5 days in a cold phase and then it rockets right back to the warm phases (which wouldn't be enough to do us any good given the lag effect of 3 weeks in warm phases)...that is when I will just check out and call uncle.  That right there would be evidence that the base state, despite the SST analogs, is for tropical forcing to be in bad locations for us.  

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, nj2va said:

This place would go full tilt.  

I cant remember a case where the MJO was solely responsible for shutting down winter lol. I mean, yes it has influence but it is only one pattern driver. I guess i'm missing something.

Hello El Nino... where are you?? I think that's half the problem- this Nino is really a Nada at this point. CPC/NCEP still has ENSO neutral with an El Nino 'watch' in effect.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

LOL if that does verify...and we get 5 days in a cold phase and then it rockets right back to the warm phases (which wouldn't be enough to do us any good given the lag effect of 3 weeks in warm phases)...that is when I will just check out and call uncle.  That right there would be evidence that the base state, despite the SST analogs, is for tropical forcing to be in bad locations for us.  

The real irony starts when it does re-emerge in the warm phases but we turn cold and snowy. A lot of long rangers are digging deep for reasons as to why winter is non-existent in the east. It would be pretty funny if the MJO cycle repeats but winter comes anyway. lol

[frd]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Too early to cancel winter but it sure has the feel of a dead dog with consecutive things working against us. Won't be the first (if it happens) and surely won't be the last. I'm done caring about "why" the pattern sucks. It's either going to get good (for whatever reason) or suck door to door. Figuring out why things are going wrong is low on my list because there is zero chance anyone can predict this stuff in advance. 

The majority of winters (or summers or springs etc) have their own unique personality that is beyond prediction. 

 

Very deep and so true. Emotional attachment is deadly with this hobby. I am going to sit back and see what the afternoon EPS shows and take it from there. I am tired mentally, really.  

There is only so much to look at, and folks are frustrated. Time for fresh air and use the DD gift card.

Still feel in some form or fashion things will change, they always do in the weather.  

But, I keep thinking though about Don S post and psu's post too, about the lack of coupling with the Nino.

Very strange, maybe a warning signal....now I will always fear Decembers in weak Ninos that have a highly positive averaged SOI value. 

 

[CAPE]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

The real irony starts when it does re-emerge in the warm phases but we turn cold and snowy. A lot of long rangers are digging deep for reasons as to why winter is non-existent in the east. It would be pretty funny if the MJO cycle repeats but winter comes anyway. lol

I am no MJO expert, but never have I ever heard anyone say the pattern is crap because of the MJO, or it cant be cold/snowy because an MJO pulse in in the warm phases. It used to be something we only ever heard about when the pattern sucked and we needed a reason. Oh. Like now.

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Very deep and so true. Emotional attachment is deadly with this hobby. I am going to sit back and see what the afternoon EPS shows and take it from there. I am tired mentally, really.  

There is only so much to look at, and folks are frustrated. Time for fresh air and use the DD gift card.

Still feel in some form or fashion things will change, they always do in the weather.  

But, I keep thinking though about Don S post and psu's post too, about the lack of coupling with the Nino.

Very strange, maybe a warning signal....now I will always fear Decembers in weak Ninos that have a highly positive averaged SOI value. 

 

Agreed.  That to me is the biggest takeaway from this wretched winter.  

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The real irony starts when it does re-emerge in the warm phases but we turn cold and snowy. A lot of long rangers are digging deep for reasons as to why winter is non-existent in the east. It would be pretty funny if the MJO cycle repeats but winter comes anyway. lol

i was going to say..if it warps into phase 4 at low ampliitude...we might at that point start to feel the affects of Phase 8 and 1 LOL. Nobody has a clue...everyone has busted this winter. Judah Cohen being the king

[CAPE]

If we had a legit Nino, I doubt the MJO would be "overwhelming" the pattern.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

Very strange, maybe a warning signal....now I will always fear Decembers in weak Ninos that have a highly positive averaged SOI value. 

 

It's never as easy as looking something like the SOI and expecting it to be a "clear signal" as what's to come. Meaning, next time we have a weak nino with a +SOI in Dec it can easily be a very different outcome due to a number of other factors including straight chaos. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I am no MJO expert, but never have I ever heard anyone say the pattern is crap because of the MJO, or it cant be cold/snowy because an MJO pulse in in the warm phases. It used to be something we only ever heard about when the pattern sucked and we needed a reason. Oh. Like now.

i think the SOI being negative is much more important...and i dont know if it is tied to MJO but usually during Nino--negative SOI produces..no matter what the strat does ..etc

[Ji]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

It's never as easy as looking something like the SOI and expecting it to be a "clear signal" as what's to come. Meaning, next time we have a weak nino with a +SOI in Dec it can easily be a very different outcome due to a number of other factors including straight chaos. 

we were 89 miles from an epic December

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Ji said:

i was going to say..if it warps into phase 4 at low ampliitude...we might at that point start to feel the affects of Phase 8 and 1 LOL. Nobody has a clue...everyone has busted this winter. Judah Cohen being the king

I expect a lot of long rangers to do some creative force fitting and word dancing to make it look like their winter forecast did well even though the ground truth is an epic disaster. 

[Ji]

GFS has a major PNA...just shift that west a bit

 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

we were 89 miles from an epic December

Think about what this place would have been like if the Dec 2009 storm had missed. There was no significant snow until the end of Jan after that if I remember correctly.

[frd]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Agreed.  That to me is the biggest takeaway from this wretched winter.

Yep.  I read @40/70 Benchmark posting on the MEI and the weakish El Nino ( Modaki ) over a month ago. Will have to see how Ray's progression develops over time. He did well with December, actually very good I think.   

I know Ray stated that a weak(er) El Nino puts a lower ceiling on us here ( Mid Atlantic ) but about a month ago he still felt confident that we do OK.

A lot has changed since then with the global NH weather drivers.

I have not reviewed any of his latest updates, and maybe he did not provide an update, I mean it is silly to think it is only Jan 3 rd.    

I know Ray put a lot of effort into his seasonal. I admire his work and that of Tom's as well. 

 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

i think the SOI being negative is much more important...and i dont know if it is tied to MJO but usually during Nino--negative SOI produces..no matter what the strat does ..etc

FWIW i think your onto something there.  SOI in my view holds many of the cards in the current hand were playing through.  Until recent it was way up, and only in the last several days are we now in the - territory. 

but to Bob's point, it not the only factor, but its just what my gut has been telling me is a driver as in the last week as we've seen trouble w/ evolution of other tellies.

[Ji]

Think about what this place would have been like if the Dec 2009 storm had missed. There was no significant snow until the end of Jan after that if I remember correctly.

Just look at bob

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Yep.  I read @40/70 Benchmark posting on the MEI and the weakish El Nino ( Modaki ) over a month ago. Will have to see how Ray's progression develops over time. He did well with December, actually very good I think.   

I know Ray stated that a weak(er) El Nino puts a lower ceiling on us here ( Mid Atlantic ) but about a month ago he still felt confident that we do OK.

A lot has changed since then with the global NH weather drivers.

I have not reviewed any of his latest updates, and maybe he did not provide an update, I mean it is silly to think it is only Jan 3 rd.    

I know Ray put a lot of effort into his seasonal. I admire his work and that of Tom's as well. 

 

Yeah, I too read/follow them (and tip as best i can parse through his verbal wizardry).  

I wish some of the top dogs down here would put more winter forecasts out.  IMO This forum has the talent.

[Ji]

If we had a legit Nino, I doubt the MJO would be "overwhelming" the pattern.

Ill be darned if a rainstorm over the Indian Ocean is going to ruin our winter

[Kevin Reilly]

Now I know we are all looking for -EPO, -NAO -AO +PNA MJO SSWE etc. but what about the possibility that the warming ocean temps world wide is overwhelming the cooling produced by the melting polar ice caps.  Yes, I am trying to link the possibility that whatever you want to call it global warming or climate change is at work here in regards to our weather patterns.  

It would appear to me that the overall warmth of the ocean especially the Pacific and the Atlantic is overwhelming the whole system with warmth and the lag time to get winter is increasing over time relative to normal.  

In North America for instance the continental arctic air is overwhelmed by the warming of the pacific for instance causing a storm track that just favors more regularly warmth flooding in from the Pacific.

I mean 15" snowstorms along the East Coast Richmond to NYC are becoming like tracking hurricanes up the east coast in August to October.

 

Kevin

[wawarriors4]

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Think about what this place would have been like if the Dec 2009 storm had missed. There was no significant snow until the end of Jan after that if I remember correctly.

There was a clipper on 1/8 that dropped 1-2" and then really nothing until 1/30-2/10 and after that snowfall was pretty much done. Epic winter all in about 3 weeks, hopefully our benchmark of right around 1/20 this year works out.

[MD Snow]

4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Now I know we are all looking for -EPO, -NAO -AO +PNA MJO SSWE etc. but what about the possibility that the warming ocean temps world wide is overwhelming the cooling produced by the melting polar ice caps.  Yes, I am trying to link the possibility that whatever you want to call it global warming or climate change is at work here in regards to our weather patterns.  

It would appear to me that the overall warmth of the ocean especially the Pacific and the Atlantic is overwhelming the whole system with warmth and the lag time to get winter is increasing over time relative to normal.  

In North America for instance the continental arctic air is overwhelmed by the warming of the pacific for instance causing a storm track that just favors more regularly warmth flooding in from the Pacific.

I mean 15" snowstorms along the East Coast Richmond to NYC are becoming like tracking hurricanes up the east coast in August to October.

 

Kevin

Maybe but remember last year we had an advisory event on december 8-9 and the end of december through beginning of january we had like 13 days straight of below freezing temps. 

[nj2va]

25 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I cant remember a case where the MJO was solely responsible for shutting down winter lol. I mean, yes it has influence but it is only one pattern driver. I guess i'm missing something.

Hello El Nino... where are you?? I think that's half the problem- this Nino is really a Nada at this point. CPC/NCEP still has ENSO neutral with an El Nino 'watch' in effect.

Oh I hear you but with so much attention on the MJO this year, this place will be a dumpster fire with panic if we have to endure cycles through the warmer phases again.  Although who knows, by then we could be in a Nino state vs ‘watch’ so its impact could be muted.  This is the first year I’ve paid closer attention to MJO, SOI, ENSO, etc...fascinating to learn about but confusing and frustrating all at the same time.

[frd]

6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah, I too read/follow them (and tip as best i can parse through his verbal wizardry).  

I wish some of the top dogs down here would put more winter forecasts out.  IMO This forum has the talent.

I never thought of that, I mean the top dogs, the closest I follow is Allen Huffman. 

Tip makes HM's  wordage easy to read :-) 

Nah, they both require decoders ha ha , they are both wizards !  

DT from a recent Judah post ( morale of story to me is that I am cool with Europe getting nailed first )

from a few minutes ago on Judah' s feed 

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2. New conversation

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     DTVaWeatherman‏ @DTVaWeatherman 41m41 minutes ago

     More

     Replying to @judah47

     JUDAH this PV split unlike the last one appeats to imnpacts Eurasia side of the northern Hemisphere first. It is posble that QBO phase in dec 2018/ Jan20-19 whcih si soooo different from last winter... is favoring the Eurasia side first for the PV impacts/

 

 

 

 

[nj2va]

You can start to see the flip to a favorable PAC by the 11th on the 12z GEFS.  By the 14th, we have this:

[jaydreb]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

You can start to see the flip to a favorable PAC by the 11th on the 12z GEFS.  By the 14th, we have this:

I like the reds over AK and Greenland but don’t we want blues over us?

[nj2va]

Just now, jaydreb said:

I like the reds over AK and Greenland but don’t we want blues over us?

One thing at a time lol.  Give me a favorable PAC and that look over GL and lets go from there for the time being.

[MountainGeek]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Agree with all those points... the first post from Jason kind of contradicts...he says MJO in 7/8 interferes with a -AO when it is strong amp but then in the next sentence says when the MJO amplitude is weak it is "less cold".   Not sure if it was a typo or I am missing something. 

Not all interference is destructive. Constructive interference means it interferes to make it larger in a positive way.....so MJO 7/8 strong would enhance the existing -AO.

 

[LP08]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

You can start to see the flip to a favorable PAC by the 11th on the 12z GEFS.  By the 14th, we have this:

I know we talked yesterday about the absence of a "blue" trough over the east with that look up top.  Could it be that some members still have the same pattern we are in and are skewing the mean?  That's a pretty good great look, ignoring the colors over us lol.