January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Snowstorm5921]

9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

20 posts from him so far and each one equal to the last so far

Sorry but I’m not going to pretend like things are going to dramatically change in our favor.  Once the EPS flipped to a god awful PAC it hasn’t looked back and has been spot on.  Whether or not you want to admit that all other guidance has slowly caved towards it is up to you.

you can talk as much SSW as you want but more often than not they throw wrenches into winter forecasts and hurt more often than help.  I’ve never been a fan of them and don’t understand all the hype surrounding them.  Persistence has been the theme this winter and i see nothing that is going to change that.  No shame in admitting it and moving on.

[aldie 22]

6 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Sorry but I’m not going to pretend like things are going to dramatically change in our favor.  Once the EPS flipped to a god awful PAC it hasn’t looked back and has been spot on.  Whether or not you want to admit that all other guidance has slowly caved towards it is up to you.

you can talk as much SSW as you want but more often than not they throw wrenches into winter forecasts and hurt more often than help.  I’ve never been a fan of them and don’t understand all the hype surrounding them.  Persistence has been the theme this winter and i see nothing that is going to change that.  No shame in admitting it and moving on.

You're not reading my posts if you attach the above to me. I'm basically saying that you have carved out a posting niche for yourself that is quite predictable

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Wonderdog said:

Maybe but it's around the time you have been talking about for changes to take place.

Yea and it could be right...but there are signs the progression is slowing even more.  I targeted the 15-20th for a pattern change.  If I am off a few days...ok.  But if the pattern doesn't flip until February I am not going to pull a Cohen or a JB and claim victory.   Every pattern changes eventually...at some point I was just wrong.  I did not envision this MJO wave or SOI spike.  The logic behind much of my forecast was that the soi and mjo would be largely favorable this year as the SST analogs argued.  Those analog years were substantially more coupled to the nino SST than this year.  So in hind sight perhaps those analogs will turn out to be wrong and some enso neutral years coming on a 2 year nina will turn out to be a more accurate analog, and some of those are awful!.  The SOI is a better measure of the atmospheric response to a nino sst so if the SOI fails to respond then the water being in a nino doesn't really matter.  It is time to admit some of the preconceived notions for this winter were wrong.  

Now that I have pushed some to the ledge...let me walk them back.  If we re-evaluate where we are right now...at this moment, there are still reasons to be hopeful this is not an entire winter shut out type year...or even to hope that this could still end up a back loaded year.  

1.  SOME of the analogs to a strat warm this time of year had very warm starts and then drastic reversals...1966 being one of the best outcomes from a similar event to this year...also one of the analogs for SST

2.  The PV is a mess, weak, being punched around from both the strat and the trop and has no sign of recovering.  So far the benefits have been and will be to the other side of the hemisphere but that could easily shift around.  The weak PV would favor blocking as we head later in winter.

3.  The MJO has been just flat out awful, possibly the absolute worst EVER for early winter.  But just looking at where the wave is right now, and guidance, objectively it SHOULD improve "soon".  There will likely be a lag with a weakening wave coming off such a LONG time in warm phases...and HM gave some even more technical reasons for that so its reasonable to think the benefits of the MJO move are still outside guidance range.  

4.  There has NEVER been an soi spike during a ONI +5 or greater during early winter that wasn't followed by a drop.  We might be seeing it now.  That would favor a pattern change from a nina to a nino base state.

5.  Simple "persistence/pattern" forecasting would argue that this pattern we are in now is likely running its course soon.  It developed by mid December...even if it is the dominant pattern of winter the odds of it running the table to March are very very low.

6.  While the SST may not be having the positive impact we wanted it also is not in a configuration that would hurt us IF we can get the negative factors listed in the first paragraph out of the way.  

 

So.... While I concede things have NOT gone the way I predicted earlier...and the flip back may end up delayed long enough that I will not claim any victory from it...there are still signs for hope that our fate is not decided yet.  I am still optimistic we will see a better pattern starting to show up soon.  Later then I wanted...but perhaps in time to salvage this dumpster fire.  

[Yeoman]

PAC barf?

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's becoming apparent he is a troll.  He might not be wrong...but the way he is a broken record with the same exact deb narrative and cherry picks only what fits the narrative...seems obvious.  I might be an optimist but I don't ignore evidence that doesn't support my optimism.  

I said after his 5th post he should be 5-posted. 

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

, but I still can't help wonder about those that obsess about the strat

This right here. All we hear about is strat this and strat that. If the pattern doesnt flip many are going to go down hard with their calls. I dont know anything about SSW's. Nothing at all. But I know a horrid winter pattern when I see one. And I also know that the majority of the time that horrid pattern is hard to get rid of.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This right here. All we hear about is strat this and strat that. If the pattern doesnt flip many are going to go down hard with their calls. I dont know anything about SSW's. Nothing at all. But I know a horrid winter pattern when I see one. And I also know that the majority of the time that horrid pattern is hard to get rid of.

the irony is good patterns are often transient.  we are often looking for a cracked window within a horrid pattern.  Words never heard are  "jeez, we have been in this wretched snowstorm pattern for weeks when will it end..close the blinds until it warms up...need the NAO to go positive or you can forget spring weather"

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, frd said:

In this case it seems Europe gets the goods , right. I mean checking out forecasts they seem to benefit from the SSWE.   

I read yesterday and maybe you did too psu. the GEPS, the FV , GEFS etc, all had the better look up top because of the forecast they each had regarding the WPO , all three models took it down. 

Guess what . the EPS and the Euro deterministic did not. 

I am not implying the WPO holds more weight versus the EPO, but that was very interesting to behold. 

I read fragments form Isotherm and others and HM and the message implied seems to be we need to "wash out " the warmth and re-set the pattern . Until the MJO resets the North Pac does not change.

I also feel myself, where we need Pac , Europe does not.  And, I know HM stated the strat effects ( blocking ) it is not uncommon for Europe to see the effects first. 

Jason F also speaks about the Eastern Hemisphere being up first and then us ( I have reworded his phrasing to a degree ) best to see his post.  

 

 

Agree with all those points... the first post from Jason kind of contradicts...he says MJO in 7/8 interferes with a -AO when it is strong amp but then in the next sentence says when the MJO amplitude is weak it is "less cold".   Not sure if it was a typo or I am missing something.  But the point seems to be clear that the MJO might yet STILL be interfering with an improved pacific look.  And HM concurs as he has laid out reasons that right now given the current AAM and the SSWE it argues for a lag with the MJO such that the wave will be slow to propagate AND we might not feel positive impacts right away even after it does get into 7/8.  That BTW was true last year as the SSWE happened around Feb 10, and the MJO progressed into cold phases that month...but the impacts were delayed until March.  

People don't want to hear this but it is still just a LITTLE too soon to declare all the positive signs in various influences to be irrelevant and a failure.  I would give it another week...if we get to January 10th and there is still no positive sign across long range guidance then it is time to panic.  We were in this same spot last year.  Things had sucked for a LONG time in January into Feb and then the SSWE and MJO both made positive changes...and the soi dropped and we got frustrated when the pattern looked like poo still...then a week later the changes started to show up but by then everyone had checked out because it would be March...and you know the drill.  This time if there is a similar 2 week delay we would see the changes start to impact the pattern the very end of January and have a pretty good pattern in February.  Maybe it isn't the blockbuster winter many were hopeful for a month ago...but if we could get a similar progress to what happened from about March 1 to April 15 last year...but get that from Feb 1 to March 15...that could end pretty darn good.  That pattern was pretty epic but it was just too late for us to really cash in.  The fact we got a pretty good event that late in March last year and were still tracking legit threats a week into April was evidence of a good pattern.  Give me that look in prime climo and I'll take my chances.  

[EastCoast NPZ]

This feels a lot like 2015 to me.  I do think we see a flip in early Feb to a colder pattern.  That correlates to this wretched pattern lasting about 6 weeks, which is about how long the wretched warm early fall pattern lasted.  I'd wager BN temps for Feb and normal snow.  Then, turning warm again in March.

[jaydreb]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

We were in this same spot last year.  Things had sucked for a LONG time in January into Feb and then the SSWE and MJO both made positive changes...and the soi dropped and we got frustrated when the pattern looked like poo still...then a week later the changes started to show up but by then everyone had checked out because it would be March...and you know the drill.  This time if there is a similar 2 week delay we would see the changes start to impact the pattern the very end of January and have a pretty good pattern in February.  Maybe it isn't the blockbuster winter many were hopeful for a month ago...but if we could get a similar progress to what happened from about March 1 to April 15 last year...but get that from Feb 1 to March 15...that could end pretty darn good.  That pattern was pretty epic but it was just too late for us to really cash in.  The fact we got a pretty good event that late in March last year and were still tracking legit threats a week into April was evidence of a good pattern.  Give me that look in prime climo and I'll take my chances.  

Sounds a lot like 2015.  I’m not knowledgeable enough to know the differences but I do recall that we waited for what seemed like forever for a flip to a decent pattern.  It flipped in early Feb for NE and then mid-Feb for us and we went on a nice little run.  

[Waiting on snow]

4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

This feels a lot like 2015 to me.  I do think we see a flip in early Feb to a colder pattern.  That correlates to this wretched pattern lasting about 6 weeks, which is about how long the wretched warm early fall pattern lasted.  I'd wager BN temps for Feb and normal snow.  Then, turning warm again in March.

I agree with Feb. Not sure it lasts into March though. Pac puke is the most stable pattern it seems in winter. As someone above posted the good patterns are always transient and rarely last more than 2 weeks.

[bluehens]

The way this winter is going I can see us flipping to below normal temps but then having the moisture train shut off.  Warm/wet, cold/dry.  That would be the ultimate kick in the groin.

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Sorry but I’m not going to pretend like things are going to dramatically change in our favor.  Once the EPS flipped to a god awful PAC it hasn’t looked back and has been spot on.  Whether or not you want to admit that all other guidance has slowly caved towards it is up to you.

you can talk as much SSW as you want but more often than not they throw wrenches into winter forecasts and hurt more often than help.  I’ve never been a fan of them and don’t understand all the hype surrounding them.  Persistence has been the theme this winter and i see nothing that is going to change that.  No shame in admitting it and moving on.

Where are you from?  The Center Valley that is just south of Allentown PA?   How did persistence work for you last March and April when your area got like 35" of snow after March 1? 

 

You have every right to give your opinion...but you are a broken record, every post is almost the same without much scientific reasoning to support it.  And you openly ignore evidence that conflicts with your narrative.  I might be an optimist I don't ignore the guidance that sucks.  And...why are you posting constantly all of a sudden in this forum pretty far from your area?

[nj2va]

Latest MJO from Euro.  Further amplification of the wave but speeds us through 7/8 into COD to emerge in Phase 4.  If we do emerge back in Phase 4, we can pretty much close the blinds.  

Latest from GEFS has us loop in Phase 7.  Both suggest we’re in Phase 7 by the weekend.  

[Prestige Worldwide]

1 hour ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Because it’s wrong

With a handle like snowstorm5921 you should be more optimistic about snow- even if it’s wrong 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

And HM concurs as he has laid out reasons that right now given the current AAM and the SSWE it argues for a lag with the MJO such that the wave will be slow to propagate AND we might not feel positive impacts right away even after it does get into 7/8. 

Good post, and yes HM seems to have a grasp at what is happening, you could in simply terms almost flip what HM is stating to fit Tip's view of no gradient , right ? 

That is a stretch, but HM is saying too much tropical basin warmth. And, like you said psu, even when we get to phase 7 or 8 it may even take additional time. 

HM leaves the door open on a possible change to the better. 

To me it is either the structure of the El Nino is at cause for this, or the strat is to blame.

From Isotherm's post the strat event caused unforseen issues with the Pacific Ocean conveyor belt and f ed up everything from the BDO to the Hadley cell IMHO. Everything is interelated out there,  and when you step back and think about it , it is amazing how one area/casue and effect relationship then effects another and so on and so on.  

 

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

I agree with Feb. Not sure it lasts into March though. Pac puke is the most stable pattern it seems in winter. As someone above posted the good patterns are always transient and rarely last more than 2 weeks.

yes that was me...hence the latest MJO forecast by the Euro...speed us through 7/8 and COD to 4...of course that would be the progression never the other way. 

[mappy]

Any chance PSU, Leesburg... you guys can take the personal stuff against snowstorm255765468765465 to banter? 

[frd]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Latest MJO from Euro.  Further amplification of the wave but speeds us through 7/8 into COD to emerge in Phase 4.  If we do emerge back in Phase 4, we can pretty much close the blinds.  

Latest from GEFS has us loop in Phase 7.  Both suggest we’re in Phase 7 by the weekend.  

I did read from a couple folks, and one met , plus saw this over at 33andrain that we may have to cycle through the bad cycles yet again ( like you have mentioned here in your plot ) before we get back to a more normal progression. 

HM has stated like psu mentioned as well, MJO lag and stall are possible. 

That would really piss off a lot of mets and snow lovers. 

I don't know right know, I think there is little confidence in what "might" happen.  

 

 

  

[Snowstorm5921]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Where are you from?  The Center Valley that is just south of Allentown PA?   How did persistence work for you last March and April when your area got like 35" of snow after March 1? 

 

You have every right to give your opinion...but you are a broken record, every post is almost the same without much scientific reasoning to support it.  And you openly ignore evidence that conflicts with your narrative.  I might be an optimist I don't ignore the guidance that sucks.  And...why are you posting constantly all of a sudden in this forum pretty far from your area?

Yes, that’s right.  That was a great stretch for sure, but one that will not happen again for a long time if i had to guess.  I follow this forum more than the others because of the great analysis that goes on in here.  Sucks that this winter fell apart after so much hope.

[nj2va]

Just now, frd said:

I did read from a couple folks, and one met , plus saw this over at 33andrain that we may have to cycle through the bad cycles yet again ( like you have mentioned here in your plot ) before we get back to a more normal progression. 

HM has stated like psu mentioned as well, MJO lag and stall are possible. 

That would really piss off a lot of mets and snow lovers. 

I don't know right know, I think there is little confidence in what "might" happen.  

 

 

  

This place would go full tilt.  

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Yes, that’s right.  That was a great stretch for sure, but one that will not happen again for a long time if i had to guess.  I follow this forum more than the others because of the great analysis that goes on in here.  Sucks that this winter fell apart after so much hope.

welcome! Gonna stop you here: its January 3rd, if you believe winter is over, then move on along. Others here are actually trying to look at long term stuff and carry on discussions. There is a banter thread for personal stuff. And the Panic Room for those who are ready to give their soul to the reaper and wipe their hands of winter. 

do not do that here in this thread. 

[pasnownut]

19 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

the irony is good patterns are often transient.  we are often looking for a cracked window within a horrid pattern.  Words never heard are  "jeez, we have been in this wretched snowstorm pattern for weeks when will it end..close the blinds until it warms up...need the NAO to go positive or you can forget spring weather"

@BristowWxI'm glad someone gets it....thank you. 

What i do find funny is how those who don't know anything about the "voodo stuff"....dismiss it, but it can be a crack in a window...or just a broken one. Only time will tell. 

I do find humor in all hail the holy grail -NAO that has helped how many times in the last how many years??  Does it show up more on models...sure....do we want it....sure.....does it verify much?  Hate  to say it, but THAT by and large has been wasted time (tongue n cheek).

I'm a snowhound....and I look for ways for it to snow.  It would be great to a pattern that just makes sense and happens, but we all know that its all about cracks in windows.  

 

[Snowstorm5921]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

welcome! Gonna stop you here: its January 3rd, if you believe winter is over, then move on along. Others here are actually trying to look at long term stuff and carry on discussions. There is a banter thread for personal stuff. And the Panic Room for those who are ready to give their soul to the reaper and wipe their hands of winter. 

do not do that here in this thread. 

Fair enough.  Guess the frustration has gotten the best of me.  Will do more reading and less posting and hope for the best.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Sounds a lot like 2015.  I’m not knowledgeable enough to know the differences but I do recall that we waited for what seemed like forever for a flip to a decent pattern.  It flipped in early Feb for NE and then mid-Feb for us and we went on a nice little run.  

Unfortunately this is worse... 2015 was VERY similar WRT SST but by now the atmosphere was better coupled with a weak nino.  This year was late developing AND has yet to have any atmospheric response.  That should change but if it doesn't we could be in trouble.  Furthermore, we remember January 2015 as "awful" but it wasn't actually that bad.  We had a pretty good clipper the first week.  Then the second was really warm and awful...but the last 10 days were cold and we had some snow...we just complained constantly because we were getting 1-2" snows while New England was getting 1-2 feet.  

Honestly there aren't many good analogs to a year with THIS awful a pattern early.  There are similar years and some did flip but without good SST matches...but perhaps finding years with a similar MJO progression and neutral SST would be a better analog?  But I haven't done that research.  But with this MJO being a record event it would make sense that the pattern was even worse.  But even the "bad" start nino years there was SOME cold and snow.  A clipper here, a front end 1" there...a couple days with cold.  It's hard to find any where it was just a total barren wasteland for a month like this... 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Fair enough.  Guess the frustration has gotten the best of me.  Will do more reading and less posting and hope for the best.

Appreciate your understanding! I'm hoping for the best too, but it doesn't look great..... 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

This place would go full tilt.  

Too early to cancel winter but it sure has the feel of a dead dog with consecutive things working against us. Won't be the first (if it happens) and surely won't be the last. I'm done caring about "why" the pattern sucks. It's either going to get good (for whatever reason) or suck door to door. Figuring out why things are going wrong is low on my list because there is zero chance anyone can predict this stuff in advance. 

The majority of winters (or summers or springs etc) have their own unique personality that is beyond prediction. 

[Fozz]

38 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

the irony is good patterns are often transient.  we are often looking for a cracked window within a horrid pattern.  Words never heard are  "jeez, we have been in this wretched snowstorm pattern for weeks when will it end..close the blinds until it warms up...need the NAO to go positive or you can forget spring weather"

I heard a lot of it from warm lovers back in 2014. "Ugh, I hate this trough, when will it go away??? I want spring and warmth!!!!"

[pasnownut]

28 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

This feels a lot like 2015 to me.  I do think we see a flip in early Feb to a colder pattern.  That correlates to this wretched pattern lasting about 6 weeks, which is about how long the wretched warm early fall pattern lasted.  I'd wager BN temps for Feb and normal snow.  Then, turning warm again in March.

I'd only think your March call might be delayed if we start acting like a Nino someday soon.

[psuhoffman]

39 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

the irony is good patterns are often transient.  we are often looking for a cracked window within a horrid pattern.  Words never heard are  "jeez, we have been in this wretched snowstorm pattern for weeks when will it end..close the blinds until it warms up...need the NAO to go positive or you can forget spring weather"

That is our climo...when our median snowfall is only 10-20" across most of the region, and a LOT of that can fall in 1-2 storms, we obviously just don't live somewhere that gets long stretches of cold/snow.  Even some of our best years the majority of the snow came in short runs.  We very rarely (like once a decade) get a winter like 96, 2003, 2014 where its wall to wall cold and snowy.  But other then that...even the good years feature short runs of winter weather surrounded by crap.  But this is crappy even for crap.