Wonderdog Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: It's not worth posting day 15 charts right now until guidance gets some stability and it's believable. But it's a good look at h5 and almost nothing in snow through day 10 than it spikes up to 2-4" across the area day 10-15. That's a good bump in a 5 day period at that range. But again until it becomes consistent across guidance (damn you EPS) and moves within range where there has been at least some small bit of accuracy (day 8 or so) it's not worth much. Maybe but it's around the time you have been talking about for changes to take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 47 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It wasn't that long ago the EPS was consistently showing a good pattern with a monster -EPO and big time cold for our area. Then it had a crap run here and there then quickly transitioned to PAC Puke. And here we are. I think with all the strat stuff occurring, plus the MJO amplitude not being well modeled (but now headed into the better phases), and the SOI dropping- there is a chance we could see a rapid shift in the guidance back to a more favorable pattern. Agreed. There is enough signs of change to start seeing real change in the coming weeks. PSU's assertion that its the the "perfect storm" of anomalous events makes sense and its hard to go against until something big shows up to knock the bully off the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 15 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I'm going to hug the SSW for all its worth, because everything else has not worked, and we need something to change the weather mojo. Of course there is evidence that the sswe might be partly to blame for the mess we're in. Sswe in winter are correlated with strong mjo warm phases. And strong warm phases are correlated with a positive soi. Those 2 are really the same since having convection nw and N of australia puts the mjo into warm phases and having lower pressure there will favor a +Soi. I am not an expert at the strat stuff but others who are have suggested a causality between the sswe and amplifying the mjo. So your relying on the thing that has totally wrecked our winter so far to save us. Im only being partially serious here and I agree there is a chance the sswe could lead to an extreme pattern flip later, but I still can't help wonder about those that obsess about the strat and talk like we "need an sswe" when the event itself is hard to predict and the impacts are wildly unpredictable and sometimes they do more harm than good in a specific location. Some of our best winters had no sswe at all. And some of our worst had major sswe. I feel like this has become the new fad in the weather world. I'm not saying it's not important. It is. Just like enso is. Or the mjo. Or the nao/amo/aam/pna/epo/wpo/qbo..... but focusing solely on one thing to that degree is missing the forest from the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 20 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I'm going to hug the SSW for all its worth, because everything else has not worked, and we need something to change the weather mojo. I believe to a degree we are in uncharted waters and while even the best mets know in real time what the issues are now, they did not see them coming even a few weeks ago. The best explanation I have seen to date is what HM posted last night, and not the greatest news. Things take time. MJO slowing, heat balance needs to be restored, things are a real mess now. We hae a negative feedback loop in the Pac. ore Like I said before about the AAM, until these anticyclones are reduced (if not reversed with next +AAM cycle) and wave absorption decreases and the Mid Latitude waves get room to breathe, the North Pacific will remain unchanged So, HM explained this, but I never remember HM talking about this a couple weeks ago. I can't think of anyone who has gotten the pattern right so far. Certainly not the Pac pattern and the raging jet and widespread warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Of course there is evidence that the sswe might be partly to blame for the mess we're in. Sswe in winter are correlated with strong mjo warm phases. And strong warm phases are correlated with a positive soi. Those 2 are really the same since having convection nw and N of australia puts the mjo into warm phases and having lower pressure there will favor a +Soi. I am not an expert at the strat stuff but others who are have suggested a causality between the sswe and amplifying the mjo. So your relying on the thing that has totally wrecked our winter so far to save us. Im only being partially serious here and I agree there is a chance the sswe could lead to an extreme pattern flip later, but I still can't help wonder about those that obsess about the strat and talk like we "need an sswe" when the event itself is hard to predict and the impacts are wildly unpredictable and sometimes they do more harm than good in a specific location. Some of our best winters had no sswe at all. And some of our worst had major sswe. I feel like this has become the new fad in the weather world. I'm not saying it's not important. It is. Just like enso is. Or the mjo. Or the nao/amo/aam/pna/epo/wpo/qbo..... but focusing solely on one thing to that degree is missing the forest from the trees. Bingo. Perfectly stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 20 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I'm going to hug the SSW for all its worth, because everything else has not worked, and we need something to change the weather mojo. JB is blowing so much hot air it's overwhelming the pattern obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skifly Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 9 hours ago, Fozz said: They almost never lose. But the problem with Maine is that a lot of it is very empty and isolated. Haha. Arguably that just the reason that many of us choose to live here! Besides, there are plenty of black flies to keep us company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Well if the MJO progression has slowed as stated by HM, assuming we make it to 8-1-2, maybe it will crawl through those phases as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Besides the unicorn fantasy pattern the 6z GEFS shows, seems like guidance has come into better agreement (and not surprisingly moved toward the EPS). Have to hope February really delivers at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Of course there is evidence that the sswe might be partly to blame for the mess we're in. Sswe in winter are correlated with strong mjo warm phases. And strong warm phases are correlated with a positive soi. Those 2 are really the same since having convection nw and N of australia puts the mjo into warm phases and having lower pressure there will favor a +Soi. I am not an expert at the strat stuff but others who are have suggested a causality between the sswe and amplifying the mjo. So your relying on the thing that has totally wrecked our winter so far to save us. Im only being partially serious here and I agree there is a chance the sswe could lead to an extreme pattern flip later, but I still can't help wonder about those that obsess about the strat and talk like we "need an sswe" when the event itself is hard to predict and the impacts are wildly unpredictable and sometimes they do more harm than good in a specific location. Some of our best winters had no sswe at all. And some of our worst had major sswe. I feel like this has become the new fad in the weather world. I'm not saying it's not important. It is. Just like enso is. Or the mjo. Or the nao/amo/aam/pna/epo/wpo/qbo..... but focusing solely on one thing to that degree is missing the forest from the trees. Not at all what I'm doing. Not sure where that came from. It's no fad for me. Its just another variable in the meteo mix. We all know that the nao/epo., so I'm not sure why that's even being considered as "missed". It is missed alright... by all of us. So far what we thought was going to be a potentially good winter has been nothing short of sh!t. We've all been "fooled" enough by long range guidance to know that seemingly better times keep getting pushed back. My interest in the SSW is and always been that it CAN be an important variable for cold in the conus. (depending on where/how it sets up). It's just like EPO/NAO/AO, and so far none of them have materialized (and I know why so i dont need to be told). Not being harsh but there are alot of informed pros/amateurs that all have been scratching their heads and there is no one right answer....or person that knows. Thats the fun of this game. We all have our thoughts and come here to share them. That's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 26 minutes ago, frd said: I believe to a degree we are in uncharted waters and while even the best mets know in real time what the issues are now, they did not see them coming even a few weeks ago. The best explanation I have seen to date is what HM posted last night, and not the greatest news. Things take time. MJO slowing, heat balance needs to be restored, things are a real mess now. We hae a negative feedback loop in the Pac. ore Like I said before about the AAM, until these anticyclones are reduced (if not reversed with next +AAM cycle) and wave absorption decreases and the Mid Latitude waves get room to breathe, the North Pacific will remain unchanged So, HM explained this, but I never remember HM talking about this a couple weeks ago. I can't think of anyone who has gotten the pattern right so far. Certainly not the Pac pattern and the raging jet and widespread warmth. Agreed. This is the perfect sh!t storm for us. MJO stall in 5 sucks. Pac is killing us and we need help from above....literally and figuratively. That's why I'm playing with the voodo doll right now (SSW), because something needs to invoke real change. That is and has been my interest as while I'll take it, i'm not big on bootleg cold and sneaking one in in a crappy pattern. Mind you thats alot of what we get, but a stable longwave pattern is what I'm looking for, and SSW events can offer that in weeks, not in and out like the other tellies we look for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 33 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Well if the MJO progression has slowed as stated by HM, assuming we make it to 8-1-2, maybe it will crawl through those phases as well. we can only hope. We've surely "done our time". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 30 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Besides the unicorn fantasy pattern the 6z GEFS shows, seems like guidance has come into better agreement (and not surprisingly moved toward the EPS). Have to hope February really delivers at this point. What other guidance? The GEPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 13 minutes ago, poolz1 said: What other guidance? The GEPS? I assumed he was referring the the EPS and GEFS, but excluding the 6z GEFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I assumed he was referring the the EPS and GEFS, but excluding the 6z GEFS run. why would you exclude the latest run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: It wasn't that long ago the EPS was consistently showing a good pattern with a monster -EPO and big time cold for our area. Then it had a crap run here and there then quickly transitioned to PAC Puke. And here we are. I think with all the strat stuff occurring, plus the MJO amplitude not being well modeled (but now headed into the better phases), and the SOI dropping- there is a chance we could see a rapid shift in the guidance back to a more favorable pattern. Agreed. What I'm hearing this morning from everybody is how mets try to predict the winter and they all fail. If they were unable to predict this crap pattern then they're probably unable to predict us going into a great pattern. That can go both ways. They point to this thing and that thing in the future and try to predict how it will impact a specific city on the globe. It's honestly ridiculous what they do year in and year out. It's all way too complicated. That's why you just have to let the weather come to you and not look ahead more than 10 days imo. I know this isn't a technical/scientific post but it's pretty much the truth. So, this is what I'm thinking. It's still WAY too early to throw the towel in. If the EPS went from showing a good look to a crap look in a couple days there is no reason to think that in the next couple of days it will go from showing a crap look to an amazing look. Especially with the some support from the GEFS, GEPS, MJO moving along, and SOI going negative. If it's still showing a crap pattern on Jan 20 then we punt all of January but to punt it all on January 3 is still ridiculous. Also, I wish everyone didn't worship at the alter of the weeklies as much as they do. They are the biggest fail machine I have ever seen past week 2. It is amazing how with all the forecasting tools we have we're still kind of clueless how it all fits together in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 People should also realize that we might pull off a snow event for the MA and NE in the 11-15 day on the GEFS and EPS. That pattern is nowhere remotely bad to what we were in 12/15 to now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ji said: why would you exclude the latest run? I wouldn't. He did though. I guess it didn't fit the narrative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Maybe we get the grand solar min deep winter in 2019 -2020 Of course until I measure 20 inches and a air temp of 12 degrees F. I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 23 minutes ago, Ji said: why would you exclude the latest run? Because it’s wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inthepines Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Because it’s wrong Oh word? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: Not at all what I'm doing. Not sure where that came from. It's no fad for me. Its just another variable in the meteo mix. We all know that the nao/epo., so I'm not sure why that's even being considered as "missed". It is missed alright... by all of us. So far what we thought was going to be a potentially good winter has been nothing short of sh!t. We've all been "fooled" enough by long range guidance to know that seemingly better times keep getting pushed back. My interest in the SSW is and always been that it CAN be an important variable for cold in the conus. (depending on where/how it sets up). It's just like EPO/NAO/AO, and so far none of them have materialized (and I know why so i dont need to be told). Not being harsh but there are alot of informed pros/amateurs that all have been scratching their heads and there is no one right answer....or person that knows. Thats the fun of this game. We all have our thoughts and come here to share them. That's it. My response wasn't directed at you...sorry that it came off that way. I was mostly talking about the twitter talking heads who seem to be dialed into the sswe like it's all that matters. In fairness to some of them, if they are experts on that, it is kind of an exciting global weather "event" and perhaps that is simply their interest...but then snow weenies like us get a hold of it and hug it and misuse it wrt importance to a specific location and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 52 minutes ago, poolz1 said: What other guidance? The GEPS? He is off to a less than spectacular start. Maybe he wants to give Carbondale a run for his money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Because it’s wrong Well you would know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He is off to a less than spectacular start. Maybe he wants to give Carbondale a run for his money. 20 posts from him so far and each one equal to the last so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I wouldn't. He did though. I guess it didn't fit the narrative. It's becoming apparent he is a troll. He might not be wrong...but the way he is a broken record with the same exact deb narrative and cherry picks only what fits the narrative...seems obvious. I might be an optimist but I don't ignore evidence that doesn't support my optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 29 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Agreed. What I'm hearing this morning from everybody is how mets try to predict the winter and they all fail. If they were unable to predict this crap pattern then they're probably unable to predict us going into a great pattern. That can go both ways. They point to this thing and that thing in the future and try to predict how it will impact a specific city on the globe. It's honestly ridiculous what they do year in and year out. It's all way too complicated. That's why you just have to let the weather come to you and not look ahead more than 10 days imo. I know this isn't a technical/scientific post but it's pretty much the truth. So, this is what I'm thinking. It's still WAY too early to throw the towel in. If the EPS went from showing a good look to a crap look in a couple days there is no reason to think that in the next couple of days it will go from showing a crap look to an amazing look. Especially with the some support from the GEFS, GEPS, MJO moving along, and SOI going negative. If it's still showing a crap pattern on Jan 20 then we punt all of January but to punt it all on January 3 is still ridiculous. Also, I wish everyone didn't worship at the alter of the weeklies as much as they do. They are the biggest fail machine I have ever seen past week 2. It is amazing how with all the forecasting tools we have we're still kind of clueless how it all fits together in the LR. Very well stated and we don't have to have a met degree to understand things well enough to see what is or isn't happening from a more amateur view (tellies etc). Sure we don't have answers, but we can see the clues being offered. That isn't said to discredit anyone whatsoever. Utmost respect for those that make a living out of this and I love reading/learning from them. Tough job lately. Couldn't agree more about the 10+ day looks of late, and if you are doing it, do it from a 10,000 ft view, not parsing through minute details. While many are bummed, I'd guess that most are sensible enough to know that its far to early to close the books. Yeah, we are loosing some prime time, but I'll take whatever I can get, whenever I can get it. That said, I think we all (well i know i do) just dream of that locked in cold look that has an active STJ just launching storm after storm at us. It always has been my bar anyway. Lets hope the coming days show some better looks. Its about time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: 20 posts from him so far and each one equal to the last so far yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: My response wasn't directed at you...sorry that it came off that way. I was mostly talking about the twitter talking heads who seem to be dialed into the sswe like it's all that matters. In fairness to some of them, if they are experts on that, it is kind of an exciting global weather "event" and perhaps that is simply their interest...but then snow weenies like us get a hold of it and hug it and misuse it wrt importance to a specific location and snow. In this case it seems Europe gets the goods , right. I mean checking out forecasts they seem to benefit from the SSWE. 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He is off to a less than spectacular start. Maybe he wants to give Carbondale a run for his money. I read yesterday and maybe you did too psu. the GEPS, the FV , GEFS etc, all had the better look up top because of the forecast they each had regarding the WPO , all three models took it down. Guess what . the EPS and the Euro deterministic did not. I am not implying the WPO holds more weight versus the EPO, but that was very interesting to behold. I read fragments form Isotherm and others and HM and the message implied seems to be we need to "wash out " the warmth and re-set the pattern . Until the MJO resets the North Pac does not change. I also feel myself, where we need Pac , Europe does not. And, I know HM stated the strat effects ( blocking ) it is not uncommon for Europe to see the effects first. Jason F also speaks about the Eastern Hemisphere being up first and then us ( I have reworded his phrasing to a degree ) best to see his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: My response wasn't directed at you...sorry that it came off that way. I was mostly talking about the twitter talking heads who seem to be dialed into the sswe like it's all that matters. In fairness to some of them, if they are experts on that, it is kind of an exciting global weather "event" and perhaps that is simply their interest...but then snow weenies like us get a hold of it and hug it and misuse it wrt importance to a specific location and snow. Fair enough. There is twitter talk, but they (like here) can be unfollowed. I follow as its fascinating, and like you, i know little about it. To their point, they obviously think it holds enough weight (dense cold air weight) to keep bringing it up. Any they ARE the smart ones, so I'm listening...especially when it can be somethings that gives us what we need for snow....cold. Dense, stabil cold that stays around long enough for storms and/or rumors of them to give us a chance at getting on the snowstick. Thats it. Rants over....lets get ready for the 12z's and hope that change is afoot....like a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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