showmethesnow Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 For those wondering how we went from this on the GEFS in the EPO region just 24 hours ago... to this... I will try to show you. Below is yesterdays 00z run of the 5 day mean at day 16. Notice that we have a piece of the trop pv sitting over the Aleutians with slight ridging in the south central Pacific. Between these two features, getting squeezed, is where the jet is running. Now what is occurring is that there is resistance/friction occurring on both the northern and southern portions of the the jet from both of these features (circles above and below the jet). This friction tends to pull the northern portion of the jet pole-ward and the southern portion towards the equator which can potentially create separate jets off the PAC jet or what we would call a split flow. Now what we are seeing on the northern portion of the jet is a great deal of resistance being created. This is evidenced by the tightly packed isobars and the highly anomalous pressure drops within the circle. The greater the resistance the greater the desire for that portion of the jet to push poleward. And as you can see we have a strong EPO ridge that is pushing all the way to the pole. On the southern portion of the jet the resistance is much weaker so we are only seeing a small amount of response from the southern portion of the jet. The look below is that ofa split flow. Now compare the one above to the current one 5 day mean at day 15. Just some slight differences. Notice we now see the trop pv situated over Russia to the far west with only a weak broad trough showing over the Aleutians. Now when you look at the circle above the jet we are seeing much weaker low pressure anomalies and the isobars are no where near being packed as much as we saw in the previous example. To make matters worse we are seeing the south Pacific ridging shifted westward so we are seeing less of a squeeze of the jet. All in all we are seeing much less resistance on the northern portion of the jet so we are no longer seeing that strong poleward push. To make matters worse we are also seeing less resistance on the southern portion of the jet so we are losing the signature of a possible southern jet as well. Now the look below is one that is caught between different solutions. That of a split in the flow and one of the PAC jet just bulling straight ahead though displaced north of where we have typically seen it. And when I look through that time period day by day we see the mixed signals between these two outcomes. So in a nutshell by far the biggest player in these different looks is the pv and where we now see it situated. But take heart. Though the current look doesn't compare to what we had seen in past runs it isn't a shut out pattern by any means. It's just a look that will take a little more work and luck for us to score in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Until the PAC Jet starts to relax we are in shutout mode. It seems to me that around the 15th is where we don't get pucked on by the PAC but still transient flow, so the 19th to 20th is going to finally show something that we can grab on to for rest of two maybe 3 weeks Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 56 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 6z GEFS arent a trainwreck towards the end but we keep delaying things and I'm more interested in seeing changes/steps 10 days or less. It trended to the eps I'm also starting to get worried this winter might be a dud. I remember people were excited about this winter because of a weak EL Nino. That's why everyone went above normal snowfall wise and colder than normal. ****ing mjo is screwing the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It trended to the eps I'm also starting to get worried this winter might be a dud. I remember people were excited about this winter because of a weak EL Nino. That's why everyone went above normal snowfall wide and colder thab normal. ****ing mjo is screwing the pattern. That and CPC has this ENSO classified officially as neutral which is what we call la nada correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That and CPC has this ENSO classified officially as neutral which is what we call la nada correct? Yes sir If the mjo didn't stall , I think we would all be fine now. Weak el Ninos are very good for your area. It's a shame how this winter is going right now. I have 5 inches thanks to the November storm but it's been friggin boring since then. The other time I saw snow was in late November in Cooperstown. All the major cities have struggled so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 0z tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Tonight the changes at the end of the runs cant be subtle they need to be jolting...if not then to me the winter that never was will have won Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 50 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Incremental improvement on the 0z EPS over AK/EPO domain, and overall up top.. less blue. I think over the next few runs we see the EPO ridge continue to develop and and the AO should trend negative. NA blocking probably wont get going until the last week of Jan. EPS is progressing slower than the weeklies...again. Ugh 0z eps weeklies same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: EPS is progressing slower than the weeklies...again. Ugh 0z eps weeklies same time It's not moving up in time I know I'm posting too much in this thread but I really feel everyone's pain in here. The prospects before this winter were great for above normal for your area and my area . Hopefully the pattern changes and everyone cashes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 What a difference a year makes. Even tho this was generally a coastal beast at least we were tracking significant threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What a difference a year makes. Even tho this was generally a coastal beast at least we were tracking significant threats Was thinking the same thing this morning. Even last years craptastic winter had storm threats to fail on. So far, the only thing we are failing on are winter pattern threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Don't think there's any point to following things for at least another week. I think we'll be lucky to get a decent sustained pattern by the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS is progressing slower than the weeklies...again. Ugh 0z eps weeklies same time Not by much, maybe a couple days. And arguably the EPS is a little 'ahead' with the HL look. Either way it was expected. I had already mentally kicked the can down the road a bit. I had been thinking the 15th was doable for a serviceable pattern- it still might be- but based on recent runs of the ensembles the 20th is probably more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Don't think there's any point to following things for at least another week. I think we'll be lucky to get a decent sustained pattern by the end of January. Love to hear your thoughts on modeling overall. Specific to this season, the great concensus and so far not materializing. You really think the evolution of the stat did it or was it the Pacific and the nature of the El Nino? I guess we are just not there yet with modeling to any great accuracies. December, to a degree and all of Jan., will go down without much to show for it. December was above normal, and Jan will be above as well. What a bummer so far. But, my feeling is there is still hope in Feb and March, but like most I would agree, regardless of outcomes this winter can never place highly for a great winter when you have to endure this pattern. I have mud, mud and more mud and even lady bugs on the screens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I'm not going to over think this. We just had a record soi spike during a nino oni month. A December mjo amp record and a record time spent in phase 5. And a record Dec sswe on both poles which are correlated to warmth at initiation. Every one of those things are bad. They are also all related to some degree but the record levels recorded in each just points to the significance. The pattern went to crap as soon as those things ramped up mid December and it's been in a recurring loop ever since. As of yet the effect hasn't waned and there can be a lag, plus HM thinks the lag this year may be enhanced. I've had faith that at some point those influences will wane and the pattern will flip. Maybe the tropical convection in bad spots is just the base state this year. But whichever it's not realistic to think we would have a good pattern with all those things going wrong at record levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Interesting what Jack mentions here about Feb, say what you want that a call for a snowier and colder Feb is like , yeah, duh.... But, if Feb delivers we will be partying in the streets. I feel the snap back does occur, and it could be remarkable. As remarkable as this borerdom right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Up , up and away...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Well. OK , Ventrice but I thought there was a lag last year as well with the strat event, as I read from HM and recalled myself. I imagine Mike means it is simply taking longer overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, frd said: Love to hear your thoughts on modeling overall. Specific to this season, the great concensus and so far not materializing. You really think the evolution of the stat did it or was it the Pacific and the nature of the El Nino? I guess we are just not there yet with modeling to any great accuracies. December, to a degree and all of Jan., will go down without much to show for it. December was above normal, and Jan will be above as well. What a bummer so far. But, my feeling is there is still hope in Feb and March, but like most I would agree, regardless of outcomes this winter can never place highly for a great winter when you have to endure this pattern. I have mud, mud and more mud and even lady bugs on the screens. It wasn't that long ago the EPS was consistently showing a good pattern with a monster -EPO and big time cold for our area. Then it had a crap run here and there then quickly transitioned to PAC Puke. And here we are. I think with all the strat stuff occurring, plus the MJO amplitude not being well modeled (but now headed into the better phases), and the SOI dropping- there is a chance we could see a rapid shift in the guidance back to a more favorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Interesting what Jack mentions here about Feb, say what you want that a call for a snowier and colder Feb is like , yeah, duh.... But, if Feb delivers we will be partying in the streets. I feel the snap back does occur, and it could be remarkable. As remarkable as this borerdom right now. No one is going to win long range forecaster of the year for going cold and snowy in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 @poolz1 winds continue to reverse today , the record on this date is -12.2 from JB's buddy winter, good ole 1985. Don't laugh there are some similarities , now we stand at -5.3 More The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -5.3 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -12.2 m/s 1985 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 62.6 m/s 1989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: t wasn't that long ago the EPS was consistently showing a good pattern with a monster -EPO and big time cold for our area. Then it had a crap run here and there then quickly transitioned to PAC Puke. And here we are. I think with all the strat stuff occurring, plus the MJO amplitude not being well modeled (but now headed into the better phases), and the SOI dropping- there is a chance we could see a rapid shift in the guidance back to a more favorable pattern. Interesting , this event is taking a larger scope and in the end may last longer overall, and cause more trop effects. Additional warming forecasted as well. This strat second wind IMHO may up the ante for Feb and March and cause a further delay in the MJO to late Jan, just speculation right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It wasn't that long ago the EPS was consistently showing a good pattern with a monster -EPO and big time cold for our area. Then it had a crap run here and there then quickly transitioned to PAC Puke. And here we are. I think with all the strat stuff occurring, plus the MJO amplitude not being well modeled (but now headed into the better phases), and the SOI dropping- there is a chance we could see a rapid shift in the guidance back to a more favorable pattern. I remember how quickly the Euro flipped from a SECS-y pattern to PAC vomit for end of December into January (and hasn’t looked back). I honestly could see a similar quick flip happen the other way given the state of the atmosphere this winter. I’m still hopeful for back end of January into February. My thinking hasn’t changed, just shifted by a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I remember how quickly the Euro flipped from a SECS-y pattern to PAC vomit for end of December into January (and hasn’t looked back). I honestly could see a similar quick flip happen the other way given the state of the atmosphere this winter. I’m still hopeful for back end of January into February. My thinking hasn’t changed, just shifted by a few days. Same here. I am 'hopeful' we can still salvage the last 10 days of Jan. Get a workable pattern by mid month or so, and maybe score a moderate event before Feb. That would alleviate a lot of anxiety around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 8 hours ago, Fozz said: They almost never lose. But the problem with Maine is that a lot of it is very empty and isolated. Even better. Paradise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 6z gefs was a great run. Good look up top. Lots of snow days 11-16. I'm back all on. Woooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: 6z gefs was a great run. Good look up top. Lots of snow days 11-16. I'm back all on. Woooooo Are you kidding? Any charts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Are you kidding? Any charts? Yes and No. It was a good run. Am I really that excited, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 48 minutes ago, frd said: Up , up and away...... I'm going to hug the SSW for all its worth, because everything else has not worked, and we need something to change the weather mojo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Are you kidding? Any charts? It's not worth posting day 15 charts right now until guidance gets some stability and it's believable. But it's a good look at h5 and almost nothing in snow through day 10 than it spikes up to 2-4" across the area day 10-15. That's a good bump in a 5 day period at that range. But again until it becomes consistent across guidance (damn you EPS) and moves within range where there has been at least some small bit of accuracy (day 8 or so) it's not worth much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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