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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va

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36 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So just to clarify: Basically, anything that looks conducive in a LR winter forecast can be crapped on by the pac...and said bad pac can't really be predicted all that well?

When you say lr winter forecast are you asking about the ones that come out in the fall or d8-15?

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

In the fall...but also the weeklies as well

Weeklies are an extension of the regular eps so if the eps is wrong the weeklies are usually wronger. As far as the seasonal forecasts go... it's a very tough combo of skill and luck. I like reading them but i've seen so many bust over the years. Weather just being weather will remain a mysterious puzzle until long after i'm gone. 

 

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38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm fine honestly if this winter craps the bed for us. It happens. Wont be the first wont be the last. But if Boston and NYC get 80"+ somehow while DC bwi and phl get virtually shutout I'm trading this hobby for origami, crochet, and brass rubbing not necessarily in that order.

I'm kinda with you there...To me, the DC/Balt snowhole (like last year) feels worse than what we're dealing with now...at least with something like this, we're all in it together, lol So no snow envy and gut-wrenching misses inside of 5 days? If we have to fail, I'd rather it be how we are right now!

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3 hours ago, The_Global_Warmer said:

The GEFS looks good for a major storm at the end. 

500h_anom.nh (1).png

Yeah but we're back to unicorn chasing at the tail end of an ens run. We were starting to get things to move close over the past 5 days or so irt lead time lessening but now we r back to square 1 again delaying any changes to past 240 hours if not longer. And if u are watching the 2m temp anomalies drive the CPF and bn temps west of the continental divide and seem to want finally want to establish they regime out there while we push AN still in the east.  Like I said I'm trying not to look past 10 days anymore but man it sure seems we are losing some of the stepping-up looks we were seeing out West over the next 8-12 days.

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This as we approach week 3 of Jan....truly the meat and guts heart of winter, isn't going to cut it. One could argue on the gefs that at least there are finally widespread neg temp anomalies over N Americs but we keep pushing it back. Another 5-8 days from now and we r punting all or January.  Not there yet but signs are starting to show up. I guess Feb could rock but I mentioned a while back this is setting up to possibly be a 2-week back loaded winter....and that may be generous at this point.

gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_64.png

gem-ens_T2ma_namer_65.png

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9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

6z GEFS arent a trainwreck towards the end but we keep delaying things and I'm more interested in seeing changes/steps 10 days or less.

Now is not the time to look at op runs and expect a discrete threat to consistently show up. We are probably still in shutout mode for the next 10-14 days. I am sticking with the 20th for a workable pattern.

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