Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 26 minutes ago, Fozz said: All the way in NNE. For goodness sakes this is awful. Most winters this bad have weeks of 50s and 60s (like 01-02 or early 06-07), but instead we've just been lukewarm. Don't worry, 60s on the way next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Maine is the place to be every winter They never lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 At 219hr, 0z GFS has rain for Omaha, Nebraska lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 36 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So just to clarify: Basically, anything that looks conducive in a LR winter forecast can be crapped on by the pac...and said bad pac can't really be predicted all that well? When you say lr winter forecast are you asking about the ones that come out in the fall or d8-15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Maine is the place to be every winter They never lose They almost never lose. But the problem with Maine is that a lot of it is very empty and isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Fozz said: They almost never lose. But the problem with Maine is that a lot of it is very empty and isolated. Especially northern maine I wouldn't mind living over there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Don't worry, 60s on the way next week I'll take it if we only have to deal with one week of this crap before getting into a good pattern. Otherwise, I'm probably logging off for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 5 weeks til pitchers and catchers report, days getting longer, sun angle, Memorial Day.....think warm thoughts. Weather always turns BN temps when we want warmth. Hopefully we hit 70 next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Hopefully we can get some sustained warm sunny and dry weather I would love to take the family on a picnic. Parades, 4th of July, apple pie......bikinis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: When you say lr winter forecast are you asking about the ones that come out in the fall or d8-15? In the fall...but also the weeklies as well. Just wondering what could've been seen for this winter to predict this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 We can prob all agree that the 0z gfs is hideous start to finish. If the gefs caves to the eps i'll be taking a break from this stuff. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 This mild winter is great on the heating bill I hope this continues. Oil demand is lower and this is great on gasoline prices. Thinking a nice family outing Jan 20th or right after to DC. This will be a great early year for cherry blossoms and daffodils I'm certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 You know its inevitable. When 70 degree days repeatedly start showing up in early March on the Gefs GEPS and eps with 15 day leads we wont see them verify until June. We'll be chasing unicorns again. Then it will go from 40s straight to upper 90s right thru Oct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Honestly if we torch this month with 60s and 70s, then I won't even mind a chilly March and April. Kinda like last year which had a chilly start to spring, but that was after many days of 70s in February, so I can live with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I'm fine honestly if this winter craps the bed for us. It happens. Wont be the first wont be the last. But if Boston and NYC get 80"+ somehow while DC bwi and phl get virtually shutout I'm trading this hobby for origami, crochet, and brass rubbing not necessarily in that order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: In the fall...but also the weeklies as well Weeklies are an extension of the regular eps so if the eps is wrong the weeklies are usually wronger. As far as the seasonal forecasts go... it's a very tough combo of skill and luck. I like reading them but i've seen so many bust over the years. Weather just being weather will remain a mysterious puzzle until long after i'm gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We can prob all agree that the 0z gfs is hideous start to finish. If the gefs caves to the eps i'll be taking a break from this stuff. Lol Gefs is starting to slow the progression. Likely the start of a move towards a compromise timing with the slower EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm fine honestly if this winter craps the bed for us. It happens. Wont be the first wont be the last. But if Boston and NYC get 80"+ somehow while DC bwi and phl get virtually shutout I'm trading this hobby for origami, crochet, and brass rubbing not necessarily in that order. I'm kinda with you there...To me, the DC/Balt snowhole (like last year) feels worse than what we're dealing with now...at least with something like this, we're all in it together, lol So no snow envy and gut-wrenching misses inside of 5 days? If we have to fail, I'd rather it be how we are right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 If this winter doesn’t turn around it’s going to be devastating to long range forecasting, especially with the general public. This was the first winter since 09/10 where the many “non-weather” people I know were paying close attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 The GEFS looks good for a major storm at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 We should just go with whatever the EPS says. Now hoping for just a couple solid weeks of winter in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Soi dropped to -13. 4th Neg day. Something has to give Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Soi dropped to -13. 4th Neg day. Something has to give Won’t be next week. It’s a furnace coast to coast for January. Even southern Canada is warm relatively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 3 hours ago, The_Global_Warmer said: The GEFS looks good for a major storm at the end. Yeah but we're back to unicorn chasing at the tail end of an ens run. We were starting to get things to move close over the past 5 days or so irt lead time lessening but now we r back to square 1 again delaying any changes to past 240 hours if not longer. And if u are watching the 2m temp anomalies drive the CPF and bn temps west of the continental divide and seem to want finally want to establish they regime out there while we push AN still in the east. Like I said I'm trying not to look past 10 days anymore but man it sure seems we are losing some of the stepping-up looks we were seeing out West over the next 8-12 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ji said: Soi dropped to -13. 4th Neg day. Something has to give This is like explosive atmospheric diarrhea over the PAC and lower 48. Only thing giving is mother nature's bowels and we r getting crapped on repeatedly. I'm hanging in til Jan 15 barely. Clock is ticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 This as we approach week 3 of Jan....truly the meat and guts heart of winter, isn't going to cut it. One could argue on the gefs that at least there are finally widespread neg temp anomalies over N Americs but we keep pushing it back. Another 5-8 days from now and we r punting all or January. Not there yet but signs are starting to show up. I guess Feb could rock but I mentioned a while back this is setting up to possibly be a 2-week back loaded winter....and that may be generous at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 If it's gonna be warm, at least dry the hell out. The ground is a putrid mess in many places. It needs to not rain for at least 30 days. Let's just punt all of January dry and 60s and try again in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 6z GEFS arent a trainwreck towards the end but we keep delaying things and I'm more interested in seeing changes/steps 10 days or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Incremental improvement on the 0z EPS over AK/EPO domain, and overall up top.. less blue. I think over the next few runs we see the EPO ridge continue to develop and and the AO should trend negative. NA blocking probably wont get going until the last week of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 6z GEFS arent a trainwreck towards the end but we keep delaying things and I'm more interested in seeing changes/steps 10 days or less. Now is not the time to look at op runs and expect a discrete threat to consistently show up. We are probably still in shutout mode for the next 10-14 days. I am sticking with the 20th for a workable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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