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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


nj2va

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51 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I guess our only hope now is that you guys ability to predict weather is as good as your ability to predict weather 

I cant predict the weather, but I predict there will be marked improvement in the advertised pattern towards D15 over the next couple runs of the EPS, particularly in the N/EPAC.

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21 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

When I checked this thread at lunch things were looking pretty optimistic.  I came home checked the thread and..

The mood of this thread depends on whether the GEFS just came out or the EPS just came out.  From 12-3 we are in GEFS-land.  From 3-7 we are stuck in the EPS reality.  Then after 7 we’re hopeful again. Until the next EPS.  

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1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

They keep cooling northern Europe.. unawareness of what's happening now pattern wise. 

agree--if the ice was icier in Iceland and the green was Greener in Greenland, that would probably give us an -NAO even the ridge in Hawaii

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1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

Yeah I figured that but it seemed like there was a specific incident relating to Joe Bastardi that everybody was referencing.

he kept calling for Vodka cold in 2001-02 winter.....said it was 10 days away.....when it finally came...it was February...of 2003

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13 minutes ago, Ji said:

btw...every rain storm we have had in DEC was once modeled as snow 9-10 days out

The worse part is none of them were even close. For our area to get good snow in a season we need a lot of chances. We've only had one chance so far. I'd feel better if we were sucking but multiple events found a way to miss. 

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The worse part is none of them were even close. For our area to get good snow in a season we need a lot of chances. We've only had one chance so far. I'd feel better if we were sucking but multiple events found a way to miss. 
Weve only had one true heartbreak....usually we have 3-4 by now
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1 minute ago, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
The worse part is none of them were even close. For our area to get good snow in a season we need a lot of chances. We've only had one chance so far. I'd feel better if we were sucking but multiple events found a way to miss. 

Weve only had one true heartbreak....usually we have 3-4 by now

We get a heartbreak every time the Euro comes out.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
The worse part is none of them were even close. For our area to get good snow in a season we need a lot of chances. We've only had one chance so far. I'd feel better if we were sucking but multiple events found a way to miss. 

Weve only had one true heartbreak....usually we have 3-4 by now

Yep, and many "heartbreaks" still drop an inch or 2. One of those would be a HECS this winter.

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yep, and many "heartbreaks" still drop an inch or 2. One of those would be a HECS this winter.

I’m honestly more amazed at the lack of snow not only here but in NE outside of the northern tier.  I’m used to DC failing but pretty amazing to see them failing too so far.  I’m happy to see there’s a good signal for a significant event up there next week...could signal the real start of winter for the east.  

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's Jan 5th and this is a rainstorm. It's insulting, ridiculous, and preposterous 

 

My Vort 101 handbook says a quadruple closed 500H low passing south of us should be snow in January.  

ETA:  Shoot, the next chapter is titled “When the PAC vomits on your pattern” and explains the rest...

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4 hours ago, Ji said:

i jokingly compared this winter to 01-02 a few weeks ago--about the broken promises and how cold vodka was always on the way but it never came...till 02-03. JB said he nailed that winter...at the upper levels

You got it exactly. Right at 10k wrong at surface vodka that never poured.

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:
11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
It's Jan 5th and this is a rainstorm. It's insulting, ridiculous, and preposterous 
gfs_z500a_us_10.png&key=57c9909c154afee1b432ff315186d2d3a127a6d1e9ddb23bf41c8df9a663fc23

That's a heartbreak....look at 850 line lol

All the way in NNE. For goodness sakes this is awful. Most winters this bad have weeks of 50s and 60s (like 01-02 or early 06-07), but instead we've just been lukewarm.

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4 hours ago, Ji said:

i jokingly compared this winter to 01-02 a few weeks ago--about the broken promises and how cold vodka was always on the way but it never came...till 02-03. JB said he nailed that winter...at the upper levels

Ya know what that means? Buckle up for 2019-20! :D (I've already half-punted to then based on our history alone...below average winters tend to come in threes'! There were fewer times where it was just two below average winters in a row)

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So just to clarify: Basically, anything that looks conducive in a LR winter forecast can be crapped on by the pac...and said bad pac can't really be predicted all that well?

We need things to line up to get a decent winter pattern.  We can survive just a mediocre-bad pacific if we have a -NAO.  We can survive a poor NAO if we have a great PAC.  But if either of those is horrendously bad — like the current state of the PAC — then we can close the blinds for a while.  In fact, a horrendous PAC is probably the worst thing we could have.  It’s a bigger killer than a +NAO.  

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